Maardu vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Maardu’s recent win over Tallinna Kalev suggests a resilient home side, yet their average of 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded against similar opponents indicates defensive frailties. FCI Levadia II, fresh from a 2-1 victory over FC Tallinn, averages 1.58 goals scored and 2.17 conceded on the road, a slightly better defensive record. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.9 goals and a most likely total of 6+ goals at a 20% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.4% chance. The model favours an away win, with 44% for FCI Levadia II, 33% for Maardu and 22% for a draw. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7%, Under 7.5 at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.9%, Over 1.5 at 91.0%, Under 6.5 at 89.8% and Home under 3.5 goals at 88.9%. Each selection is presented with its precise probability.

The upset came early as Maardu, on a two-game winning run, overturned the pre-match favourite, FCI Levadia II, to win 4-2. The model had tipped an away win with a 44% chance, but that call proved wrong. The final score confirmed a home victory, contradicting the model’s prediction. Every suggested pick was settled: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.3%, Under 7.5 hit at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.5%, Over 1.5 hit at 91.0%, Under 6.5 hit at 89.8%, and Home under 3.5 goals missed at 88.9%. The match also saw the most likely total of 6+ goals, with a 20% probability, but the actual tally fell short.