Maardu’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels optimism as they face Nõmme Kalju II, who are still riding a single victory after a five-match losing run. The model projects a home win with a 44% chance, a draw at 23%, and an away win at 34%. The most likely outcome is 1-1, with a 9% probability, while the expected total goals hover at 3.8, centring on a 3-goal total at 21%. Home form shows Maardu scoring an average of one goal per game and conceding none against weaker opposition, whereas Nõmme Kalju II averages 1.2 goals scored and 3.0 conceded against stronger opponents away. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.1%), Under 6.5 (91.2%), Over 1.5 (89.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (85.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (82.8%) and Home +2 handicap (82.5%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maardu win
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maardu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.22
2.00
2.00
2.80
2.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
2.67
2.25
3.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.50
2.44
1.50
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
3.00
1.33
3.00
1.20
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.82
1.33
2.22
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
1.00
4.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.8%
Under 1.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.6%
Under 2.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.0%
Under 3.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.5%
No
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
3-1
5.5%
3-2
4.8%
2-0
4.7%
2-3
4.2%
Maardu goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
3.2%
3.6%
2.1%
0.9%
1
3.8%
9.0%
7.2%
4.2%
1.9%
2
4.7%
8.2%
7.2%
4.2%
1.9%
3
3.1%
5.5%
4.8%
2.8%
1.2%
4
1.6%
2.8%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maardu goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Maardu is 1.50 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Maardu is 1.32 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Maardu is 0.70 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maardu or Draw
66.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
34%
covers Maardu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maardu or Nõmme Kalju II
77.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
34%
covers Maardu + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II
56.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
34%
covers Draw + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maardu over/under 0.5
Over
86.6%
Under
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 3.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maardu, so a minus line means Maardu give that many goals of a start and Nõmme Kalju II receive them. At -1, Maardu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maardu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maardu)
Maardu -2
11.7%
Draw -2
13.2%
Nõmme Kalju II +2
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maardu)
Maardu -1
25.0%
Draw -1
18.6%
Nõmme Kalju II +1
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maardu)
Maardu +1
66.4%
Draw +1
16.1%
Nõmme Kalju II -1
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maardu)
Maardu +2
82.5%
Draw +2
10.2%
Nõmme Kalju II -2
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maardu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.00
1.40
1.60
0.75
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.81
0.75
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.27
0.50
0.83
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.89
0.78
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maardu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.00
0.60
1.20
1.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
0.75
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.69
1.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.83
2.17
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.29
0.44
1.44
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
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Elva
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II