Maardu’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels confidence, while Nõmme United II’s two straight defeats hint at fragility. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 4.1 goals and a 23% chance of 6 + goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Maardu, a 7.8% probability. Home advantage is clear: Maardu averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.0 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Nõmme United II, playing away against stronger opposition, averages 1.0 scored and 4.0 conceded. The favored result is a home win, with a 46% chance, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 33%. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Under 7.5 (94.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.3%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.3%), Over 1.5 (92.0%), Away under 1.5 2H goals (91.1%), and Home over 0.5 goals (89.0%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maardu win
45.8%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.06
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Unibet
2.08
Dafabet
2.06
Betfair
2.00
Draw
21.6%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.04
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Nõmme United II win
32.5%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.70
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Dafabet
2.70
Unibet
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maardu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.22
2.00
2.00
2.80
2.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
2.67
2.25
3.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.78
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.80
1.60
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.0%
Under 1.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.2%
@ 1.14+0.3%
Under 2.5
22.8%
@ 3.80-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.14
Under
Unibet
3.80
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.0%
@ 1.47-1.9%
Under 3.5
42.0%
@ 2.20+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.47
Under
Unibet
2.20
Both teams to score
Yes
75.9%
No
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.8%@ 8.50+0.8%
1-1
7.7%@ 9.50+1.5%
2-2
7.2%@ 8.00-0.2%
1-2
6.5%@ 10.00+0.6%
3-1
5.7%@ 11.00+0.3%
3-2
5.3%@ 11.00-0.1%
2-3
4.5%@ 12.00-0.4%
2-0
4.2%@ 15.00+0.2%
Maardu goals ↓
Nõmme United II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
2.5%
3.0%
1.8%
0.9%
1
3.1%
7.7%
6.5%
4.1%
1.9%
2
4.2%
7.8%
7.2%
4.5%
2.1%
3
3.1%
5.7%
5.3%
3.3%
1.5%
4
1.7%
3.2%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maardu goals (down), columns = Nõmme United II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Maardu is 1.11 points better than Nõmme United II in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Maardu is 1.22 goals better than Nõmme United II in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Maardu is 0.22 goals worse than Nõmme United II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maardu or Draw
67.5%
Avg Implied 66.2% · @ 1.37
Edge
+1.2%
46%
22%
33%
covers Maardu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.34
Maardu or Nõmme United II
78.4%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.17
Edge
+0.8%
46%
22%
33%
covers Maardu + Nõmme United II
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Draw or Nõmme United II
54.2%
Avg Implied 56.2% · @ 1.61
Edge
-2.1%
46%
22%
33%
covers Draw + Nõmme United II
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.53
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maardu over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
@ 1.06+1.4%
Under
11.0%
@ 7.50-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.06
Under
Betfair
7.50
Maardu over/under 1.5
Over
64.8%
@ 1.40-0.4%
Under
35.2%
@ 2.62+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.50
Maardu over/under 2.5
Over
38.0%
@ 2.27-2.2%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.52+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Under
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.48
Maardu over/under 3.5
Over
18.3%
@ 4.50-2.4%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.17+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Under
Betfair
1.17
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
@ 1.11+0.1%
Under
15.6%
@ 6.00-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5
Over
55.5%
@ 1.55-3.3%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.21+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.18
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5
Over
28.6%
@ 2.88-3.5%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.36+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betfair
1.36
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5
Over
11.9%
@ 6.00-3.7%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.11+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betfair
1.11
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maardu, so a minus line means Maardu give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United II receive them. At -1, Maardu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maardu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maardu)
Maardu -2
13.7%
Draw -2
13.8%
Nõmme United II +2
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maardu)
Maardu -1
27.4%
@ 3.20+1.0%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 4.08-2.4%
Nõmme United II +1
54.2%
@ 1.60+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.00
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.54
Handicap +1 (Maardu)
Maardu +1
67.5%
@ 1.35+8.4%
Draw +1
15.4%
@ 3.95-4.8%
Nõmme United II -1
17.2%
@ 3.85-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Unibet
3.95
Away
Unibet
3.85
Handicap +2 (Maardu)
Maardu +2
82.8%
Draw +2
9.8%
Nõmme United II -2
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maardu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.00
1.40
1.60
0.75
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.13-9.8%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 5.50+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 1.65-15.8%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 2.06+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.7%
@ 3.00-15.0%
Under 2.5
84.3%
@ 1.33+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betfair
1.33
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maardu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.00
0.60
1.20
1.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
0.75
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
0.80
0.80
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.9%
Under 1.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.8%
Under 2.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.0%
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
Under 6.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.1%
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.33
Betfair
1.33
-
-
-
-
+15.0%
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.7%
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
Home or Away
78.4%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
-
-
+0.8%
Under 5.5
77.4%
1.20
Unibet
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
Over 2.5
77.2%
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-
-
-
-
-9.8%
Away +2 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.4%
1.36
Betfair
1.36
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →