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Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction & Stats

Date: 13/09/2026
Time: 09:30
Maardu
Maardu
Vs
36%
22%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Maardu’s home form shows a modest 1.0 goal per game and a clean sheet record, yet they face Tallinna Kalev, who averages 1.3 goals scored and 3.3 conceded away against stronger opposition. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.9 goals and a 20% chance of six or more goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 8.4% probability outcome. The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Tallinna Kalev, 36% for Maardu and 22% for a draw. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (95.4%), Over 1.5 (91.0%), Under 6.5 (89.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.7%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (85.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (84.8%) and an Away +2 handicap (80.6%). The recent form notes a two-game winning streak for Maardu and a recent 0-5 loss for Tallinna Kalev, setting the stage for a potentially open match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maardu win
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev win
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-832W18L31W41W12L10W01L31W42WH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.222.002.002.802.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)2.002.672.253.501.501.00
vs Weaker (3)2.670.671.000.003.501.00
Clean sheet %11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-823L31W80W21W11D80W10W30W13L05LA·FCI11/07H·NÕM18/07A·TAM23/07A·VII03/08H·FC 08/08H·TAR11/08H·ELV15/08A·NÕM20/08H·MAA24/08A·FLO29/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.832.501.622.082.002.82
vs Stronger (17)1.353.061.502.381.223.67
vs Similar (12)2.001.921.801.602.142.14
vs Weaker (1)8.000.00--8.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%06%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.0%
Under 1.5
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.9%
Under 2.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.0%
Under 3.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
74.5%
No
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
1-3
5.2%
2-3
4.9%
3-2
4.6%
3-1
4.5%
Maardu goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev goals →
01234
02.8%3.3%4.1%2.8%1.4%
13.0%8.4%7.7%5.2%2.7%
23.5%7.2%7.3%4.9%2.5%
32.2%4.5%4.6%3.1%1.6%
41.1%2.1%2.2%1.5%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maardu goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Maardu is 0.38 points better than Tallinna Kalev in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Maardu is 0.60 goals better than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Maardu is 0.25 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maardu or Draw
58.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
22%
42%
covers Maardu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maardu or Tallinna Kalev
77.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
22%
42%
covers Maardu + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
64.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
22%
42%
covers Draw + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maardu over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 3.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
86.9%
Under
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
60.2%
Under
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Maardu, so a minus line means Maardu give that many goals of a start and Tallinna Kalev receive them. At -1, Maardu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maardu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maardu)
Maardu -2
8.6%
Draw -2
10.9%
Tallinna Kalev +2
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maardu)
Maardu -1
19.5%
Draw -1
16.6%
Tallinna Kalev +1
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maardu)
Maardu +1
58.5%
Draw +1
17.9%
Tallinna Kalev -1
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maardu)
Maardu +2
76.3%
Draw +2
12.6%
Tallinna Kalev -2
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MaarduMaardu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W14L00D11D11D10W00D20W22DH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.001.401.600.750.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.331.502.000.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W20W11D11D20W10W10W02L03LA·FCI11/07H·NÕM18/07A·TAM23/07A·VII03/08H·FC 08/08H·TAR11/08H·ELV15/08A·NÕM20/08H·MAA24/08A·FLO29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.200.770.850.711.47
vs Stronger (17)0.471.760.621.120.332.33
vs Similar (12)1.000.501.000.401.000.57
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
Under 0.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.0%
Under 1.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MaarduMaardu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L31W30W01L00D01L11D20WH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.000.601.201.750.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.330.751.501.501.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.330.000.002.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W11D60W10W00D60W00D20W11D02LA·FCI11/07H·NÕM18/07A·TAM23/07A·VII03/08H·FC 08/08H·TAR11/08H·ELV15/08A·NÕM20/08H·MAA24/08A·FLO29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.300.851.231.291.35
vs Stronger (17)0.881.290.881.250.891.33
vs Similar (12)1.001.420.801.201.141.57
vs Weaker (1)6.000.00--6.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.2%
Under 1.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.1%
Under 2.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals97.7%-------
Under 7.595.4%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals95.0%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals93.1%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals92.0%-------
Over 1.591.0%-------
Under 6.589.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals87.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals86.9%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals86.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals85.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals84.9%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals82.5%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals81.6%-------
Away +2 handicap80.5%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals80.3%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals80.0%-------
Under 5.579.8%-------
Home or Away77.6%-------
Home +2 handicap76.3%-------
Over 2.574.9%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals74.5%-------
BTTS Yes74.5%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals72.9%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals71.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals70.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
MAA wins
0
Draws
0
TK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev · H/A from MAA
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs MAA1-3

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMAA Vs FCI Levadia II4-2
24/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs MAA1-3
20/08/26AElva Vs MAA1-0
15/08/26HMAA Vs FC Tallinn1-0
08/08/26HMAA Vs Viimsi1-2
01/08/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs MAA1-4
18/07/26AFlora II Vs MAA1-3
13/07/26HMAA Vs Tartu Welco1-8
09/07/26HMAA Vs Flora II3-2

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFlora II Vs TK5-0
24/08/26HTK Vs Maardu1-3
20/08/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs TK0-3
15/08/26HTK Vs Elva1-0
11/08/26HTK Vs Tartu Kalev8-0
08/08/26HTK Vs FC Tallinn1-1
03/08/26AViimsi Vs TK1-2
23/07/26ATammeka Tartu U19 Vs TK0-8
18/07/26HTK Vs Nõmme United II3-1
11/07/26AFCI Levadia II Vs TK3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maardu
Maardu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW2.00
HomeWLLWW1.80
AwayWWLW2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%60%75%
AVG goals4.224.803.50
Over 1.5 %78%80%75%
Over 2.5 %78%80%75%
Over 3.5 %67%60%75%
Scored2.222.002.50
Conceded2.002.801.00
BTTS78%80%75%
Clean Sheet11%20%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL0.90
HomeWDWWL1.09
AwayLWWWL0.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%22%
AVG goals4.224.004.41
Over 1.5 %90%87%93%
Over 2.5 %78%74%81%
Over 3.5 %62%61%63%
Scored1.461.391.52
Conceded2.762.612.89
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet12%13%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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