Viimsi is the clear favourite in this Estonia: Esiliiga A match, with a predicted 69% chance of an away win. This is largely due to their opponent, Maardu's, poor home form, particularly in matches against stronger opponents, where they concede an average of 5 goals.
Maardu has been on a 2-game winning run but their recent form at home is not as impressive as their overall record, scoring an average of 2 goals per match while conceding 5. Viimsi, on the other hand, has been coming off a defeat but their away form against weaker opponents is unknown.
The model predicts an expected total of 4.2 goals, with a most likely score of 1-2 in favour of Viimsi, occurring with a 8.3% probability. The model's selection for this match is an away win, with a 69% chance of success. The home win percentage is 14%, the draw percentage is 17%, and the away win percentage is 69%.
The model also selects Over 1.5 goals with a 92.7% probability and Over 2.5 goals with a 78.8% probability, indicating a high-scoring match.
Results analysis
Maardu's win extends their run of inconsistent form, but it's the away team that takes the headlines. The final score was 1-2, confirming the actual result was indeed an away win. The model correctly called the favourite, Viimsi, with a pre-match probability of 69%. The model's selection, an away win, proved correct.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 92.7%, and Over 2.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 78.8%. The model's other selections were not provided in the data.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maardu winâś— Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.59
Edge
-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.55
Drawâś— Miss
16.7%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.06
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Viimsi winâś“ Hit
69.0%
Avg Implied 52.5% · @ 1.72
Edge
+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Dafabet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Maardu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.75
3.00
2.00
5.00
3.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.33
3.67
2.00
5.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.37
2.06
1.44
2.07
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.43
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
2.12
1.65
2.11
1.44
2.12
1.88
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.7%
@ 1.07+5.9%
Under 1.5
7.3%
@ 7.02-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
5.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
78.8%
@ 1.27+6.5%
Under 2.5
21.2%
@ 3.32-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Under
1xBet
3.90
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
2.88
Superbet
2.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.2%
@ 1.77+8.0%
Under 3.5
39.8%
@ 1.93-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.25
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.5%
@ 1.32-1.4%
No
30.5%
@ 3.21+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.26
No
1xBet
3.55
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
2.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2 âś“
8.3%@ 8.67+3.5%
1-3
7.9%@ 10.67+4.0%
1-1
6.3%@ 9.00+1.7%
0-2
6.3%@ 12.33+2.9%
0-3
6.0%@ 15.00+3.3%
1-4
5.7%@ 17.00+3.2%
2-2
5.4%@ 10.00+1.3%
2-3
5.2%@ 13.00+2.0%
Maardu goals ↓
Viimsi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
3.8%
6.3%
6.0%
4.3%
1
1.4%
6.3%
8.3%
7.9%
5.7%
2
1.3%
3.8%
5.4%
5.2%
3.7%
3
0.6%
1.7%
2.4%
2.3%
1.6%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maardu goals (down), columns = Viimsi goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Maardu is 0.40 points better than Viimsi in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Maardu is 0.08 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 2.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Maardu is 0.60 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maardu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
1.50
2.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.75
0.81
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
0.43
0.86
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.76
1.00
0.78
0.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maardu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
1.50
0.50
2.50
3.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
2.00
0.50
2.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
25% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.67
1.31
0.62
1.29
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.38
1.57
0.57
1.00
0.17
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.88
1.11
0.67
1.50
1.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.7%
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+5.9%
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5
78.8%
1.27
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.21
+6.5%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II