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Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
Israel: Liga Leumit
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win✓ Hit
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Maccabi Ahi NazarethMaccabi Ahi Nazareth

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L21W23L20W02L02L01L02LH·AGU22/08A·MAC25/08H·IRO01/09A·HAP08/09H·HAP19/09H·HAP22/09A·HAP30/09H·HAP07/10A·HAP14/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.330.800.800.502.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.671.330.800.800.502.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W33D00D01L30W12L21W15L10WH·HAP18/08A·KAF29/08H·MAC05/09A·HAP08/09H·BNE15/09A·AGU21/09H·MAC30/09A·IRO07/10H·HAP14/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.441.331.600.201.252.75
vs Stronger (3)2.002.002.500.501.005.00
vs Similar (6)1.171.001.000.001.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %44% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.1%
Under 2.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth goals ↓
Hapoel Afula goals →
01234
09.0%6.6%3.9%1.3%0.3%
111%13%6.1%2.0%0.5%
29.3%9.4%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.8%4.9%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.9%1.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Ahi Nazareth goals (down), columns = Hapoel Afula goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
2.03
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.92
Ironi Tiberias
1.81
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.62
Hapoel Acre
1.51
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.41
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.38
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.35
Bnei Yehuda
1.30
Hapoel Afula
1.24
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.24
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.19
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.18
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.14
Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.59
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
0.00
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth is 0.11 points worse than Hapoel Afula in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.97
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.68
Ironi Tiberias
1.54
Bnei Yehuda
1.38
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.35
Hapoel Acre
1.35
Hapoel Afula
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.30
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.27
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.22
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.19
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.19
Kafr Qasim
1.16
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.16
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.00
Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.70
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
0.00
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth is 0.32 goals worse than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.32).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.84
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0.86
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.92
Ironi Tiberias
1.03
Hapoel Acre
1.05
Kafr Qasim
1.27
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.27
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.27
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.32
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.35
Hapoel Afula
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.49
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.55
Bnei Yehuda
1.59
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
2.00
Agudat Sport Ashdod
2.11
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth is 0.11 goals worse than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.49 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Maccabi Ahi NazarethMaccabi Ahi Nazareth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D01L00D01L01L01L02LH·AGU22/08A·MAC25/08H·IRO01/09A·HAP08/09H·HAP19/09H·HAP22/09A·HAP30/09H·HAP07/10A·HAP14/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.110.890.200.600.001.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.110.890.200.600.001.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W13L00D01L20W11D20W12L00DH·HAP18/08A·KAF29/08H·MAC05/09A·HAP08/09H·BNE15/09A·AGU21/09H·MAC30/09A·IRO07/10H·HAP14/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.890.781.000.000.751.75
vs Stronger (3)1.670.672.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (6)0.500.830.330.000.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Maccabi Ahi NazarethMaccabi Ahi Nazareth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W22D20W01L01L00D00DH·AGU22/08A·MAC25/08H·IRO01/09A·HAP08/09H·HAP19/09H·HAP22/09A·HAP30/09H·HAP07/10A·HAP14/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.440.600.200.500.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.440.600.200.500.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W00D00D10W01L01L03L10WH·HAP18/08A·KAF29/08H·MAC05/09A·HAP08/09H·BNE15/09A·AGU21/09H·MAC30/09A·IRO07/10H·HAP14/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.560.600.200.501.00
vs Stronger (3)0.331.330.500.500.003.00
vs Similar (6)0.670.170.670.000.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MPT (25)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
BY (26)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MPT (11)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HPT (5)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
BY (5)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
BY (12)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MAN wins
0
Draws
0
HA wins

Head-to-head

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula · H/A from MAN
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Maccabi Ahi NazarethMaccabi Ahi Nazareth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/22AHapoel Petah Tikva Vs MAN2-0
07/10/22HMAN Vs Hapoel Ramat Gan0-1
30/09/22AHapoel Rishon LeZion Vs MAN2-0
22/09/22HMAN Vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon0-2
19/09/22HMAN Vs Hapoel Acre2-0
08/09/22AHapoel Nazareth Illit Vs MAN3-2
01/09/22HMAN Vs Ironi Tiberias2-1
25/08/22AMaccabi Petah Tikva Vs MAN1-0
22/08/22HMAN Vs Agudat Sport Ashdod0-0

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/22HHA Vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit1-0
07/10/22AIroni Tiberias Vs HA5-1
30/09/22HHA Vs Maccabi Petah Tikva2-1
21/09/22AAgudat Sport Ashdod Vs HA2-1
15/09/22HHA Vs Bnei Yehuda3-0
08/09/22AHapoel Kfar Saba Vs HA1-0
05/09/22HHA Vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa0-0
29/08/22AKafr Qasim Vs HA3-3
18/08/22HHA Vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Israel: Liga Leumit
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.78
HomeDWWLL1.40
AwayLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%40%0%
AVG goals2.001.602.50
Over 1.5 %67%60%75%
Over 2.5 %22%20%25%
Over 3.5 %11%0%25%
Scored0.670.800.50
Conceded1.330.802.00
BTTS22%20%25%
Clean Sheet22%40%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
Israel: Liga Leumit
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.56
HomeWDWWW2.60
AwayDLLL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%80%0%
AVG goals2.781.804.00
Over 1.5 %67%60%75%
Over 2.5 %56%40%75%
Over 3.5 %22%0%50%
Scored1.441.601.25
Conceded1.330.202.75
BTTS44%20%75%
Clean Sheet44%80%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Maccabi Petah TikvaMaccabi Petah Tikva3775
62%
2.0
7334+39
2.9
78%
65%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.00.9
-
2Hapoel Petah TikvaHapoel Petah Tikva3771
57%
1.9
6231+31
2.5
76%
43%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.70.8
-
3Ironi TiberiasIroni Tiberias3767
51%
1.8
5738+19
2.6
73%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.0
-
4Hapoel Umm al-FahmHapoel Umm al-Fahm3760
46%
1.6
4432+12
2.1
70%
27%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.9
-
5Hapoel AcreHapoel Acre3756
41%
1.5
5039+11
2.4
68%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.1
-
6Maccabi Kabilio JaffaMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa3752
41%
1.4
4750-3
2.6
70%
51%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.4
-
7Hapoel Kfar SabaHapoel Kfar Saba3751
41%
1.4
4852-4
2.7
78%
49%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.31.4
-
8Hapoel Ramat GanHapoel Ramat Gan3750
35%
1.4
5049+1
2.7
73%
46%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.3
-
9Bnei YehudaBnei Yehuda3748
35%
1.3
5159-8
3.0
78%
49%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.6
-
10Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula3746
32%
1.2
4951-2
2.7
76%
49%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.4
-
11Hapoel Ramat HaSharonHapoel Ramat HaSharon3746
32%
1.2
4447-3
2.5
76%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
12Hapoel Nazareth IllitHapoel Nazareth Illit3845
34%
1.2
4459-15
2.7
82%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
13Hapoel Rishon LeZionHapoel Rishon LeZion3744
30%
1.2
4547-2
2.5
65%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.3
-
14Kafr QasimKafr Qasim3742
24%
1.1
4347-4
2.4
65%
32%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.3
-
15Maccabi Ahi NazarethMaccabi Ahi Nazareth3742
30%
1.1
3755-18
2.5
78%
41%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16Agudat Sport AshdodAgudat Sport Ashdod3722
11%
0.6
2678-52
2.8
89%
49%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.1
-
17Hapoel Kfar ShalemHapoel Kfar Shalem10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1000.02.0
-
Israel: Liga Leumit 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →

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