Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa are the clear favourites, with a 44% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 29% for Hapoel Afula to take the victory. The match is expected to see about 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 25% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability. In recent form, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have won two of their last five games after a three-game losing streak, scoring an average of 1.36 goals and conceding 1.57 against similar opposition at home. Hapoel Afula, on a four-game winning run, average 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded away against similar opponents. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.2% probability.
Results analysis
The match saw Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa extend their recent form, turning a three-game losing streak into a decisive victory. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 44% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 5-1, confirming a home win. The model also predicted Over 1.5 goals with a 78.2% chance, and that selection hit. All other suggested picks are not listed. The result matched the model’s expectations, with the favoured outcome and the key selection both delivered, underscoring the accuracy of the Pythia prediction for this Liga Leumit fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win✓ Hit
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.27
1.47
1.13
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.25
1.36
1.36
1.57
1.14
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.60
1.13
0.93
1.80
vs Stronger (12)
1.42
1.83
1.83
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.22
1.44
0.78
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals ↓
Hapoel Afula goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.2%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.4%
13%
7.2%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.2%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.0%
4.9%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals (down), columns = Hapoel Afula goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Ironi Tiberias
1.95
Bnei Yehuda
1.95
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.70
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.35
Hapoel Acre
1.35
Maccabi Herzliya
1.35
Kafr Qasim
1.27
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.24
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.19
Hapoel Afula
1.16
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.16
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.13
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.08
Tira
1.00
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.54
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.22 points better than Hapoel Afula in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bnei Yehuda
1.92
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.84
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.78
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.73
Ironi Tiberias
1.68
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.68
Hapoel Acre
1.46
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.27
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.27
Kafr Qasim
1.19
Hapoel Afula
1.19
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.16
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.00
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.00
Hapoel Kfar Saba
0.95
Tira
0.00
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.65 goals better than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals scored per game (1.84 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tira
0.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.62
Ironi Tiberias
0.92
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.05
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.22
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.24
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.30
Hapoel Acre
1.32
Kafr Qasim
1.35
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.38
Hapoel Afula
1.46
Maccabi Herzliya
1.65
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.68
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.70
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.73
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.51
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.22 goals worse than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.57
0.64
0.57
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.92
1.00
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.56
0.78
0.56
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.79
0.71
1.00
0.79
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.73
0.47
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.92
0.83
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.67
0.67
0.22
0.11
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (22)
€7m
HRG (26)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
BY (26)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (3)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
BY (5)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (11)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
BY (12)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
MKJ (4)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →