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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Afula Result & Analysis

Date: 24/08/2023
Time: 16:30
Final 5-1
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Vs
44%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
Israel: Liga Leumit
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa are the clear favourites, with a 44% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 29% for Hapoel Afula to take the victory. The match is expected to see about 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 25% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability. In recent form, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have won two of their last five games after a three-game losing streak, scoring an average of 1.36 goals and conceding 1.57 against similar opposition at home. Hapoel Afula, on a four-game winning run, average 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded away against similar opponents. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.2% probability.

Results analysis

The match saw Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa extend their recent form, turning a three-game losing streak into a decisive victory. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 44% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 5-1, confirming a home win. The model also predicted Over 1.5 goals with a 78.2% chance, and that selection hit. All other suggested picks are not listed. The result matched the model’s expectations, with the favoured outcome and the key selection both delivered, underscoring the accuracy of the Pythia prediction for this Liga Leumit fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win✓ Hit
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W03L22D01L21W02L00D21W13L00DA·MAC03/03H·HAP10/03A·HAP17/03A·IRO31/03H·HAP10/04A·BNE14/04A·HAP21/04H·HAP28/04A·MAC05/05H·HAP12/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.371.271.471.131.27
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (28)1.251.361.361.571.141.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L12L01L30W11D35L34L20W02L03LA·HAP06/03H·HAP13/03A·HAP17/03H·HAP03/04H·MAC07/04A·HAP14/04H·HAP21/04A·AGU28/04H·KAF05/05A·HAP12/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.471.601.130.931.80
vs Stronger (12)1.421.831.831.671.002.00
vs Similar (18)1.171.221.440.780.891.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals ↓
Hapoel Afula goals →
01234
07.2%6.2%4.6%1.9%0.6%
18.4%13%7.2%2.9%0.9%
27.5%9.2%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.0%4.9%3.0%1.2%0.4%
41.6%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals (down), columns = Hapoel Afula goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Ironi Tiberias
1.95
Bnei Yehuda
1.95
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.70
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.35
Hapoel Acre
1.35
Maccabi Herzliya
1.35
Kafr Qasim
1.27
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.24
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.19
Hapoel Afula
1.16
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.16
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.13
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.08
Tira
1.00
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.54
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.22 points better than Hapoel Afula in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.16).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bnei Yehuda
1.92
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.84
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.78
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.73
Ironi Tiberias
1.68
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.68
Hapoel Acre
1.46
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.27
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.27
Kafr Qasim
1.19
Hapoel Afula
1.19
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.16
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.00
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.00
Hapoel Kfar Saba
0.95
Tira
0.00
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.65 goals better than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals scored per game (1.84 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tira
0.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.62
Ironi Tiberias
0.92
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.05
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.22
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.24
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.30
Hapoel Acre
1.32
Kafr Qasim
1.35
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.38
Hapoel Afula
1.46
Maccabi Herzliya
1.65
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.68
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.70
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.73
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.51
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.22 goals worse than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.46).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W01L10W02L00D11D02L00DA·MAC03/03H·HAP10/03A·HAP17/03A·IRO31/03H·HAP10/04A·BNE14/04A·HAP21/04H·HAP28/04A·MAC05/05H·HAP12/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.600.530.330.53
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.500.570.640.570.360.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D10W11D31W23L20W01L01LA·HAP06/03H·HAP13/03A·HAP17/03H·HAP03/04H·MAC07/04A·HAP14/04H·HAP21/04A·AGU28/04H·KAF05/05A·HAP12/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.870.670.670.73
vs Stronger (12)0.750.921.000.830.501.00
vs Similar (18)0.780.560.780.560.780.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L12L00D11D00D00D10W11D00DA·MAC03/03H·HAP10/03A·HAP17/03A·IRO31/03H·HAP10/04A·BNE14/04A·HAP21/04H·HAP28/04A·MAC05/05H·HAP12/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.830.670.930.800.73
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (28)0.750.790.711.000.790.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L01L20W00D04L11D00D01L02LA·HAP06/03H·HAP13/03A·HAP17/03H·HAP03/04H·MAC07/04A·HAP14/04H·HAP21/04A·AGU28/04H·KAF05/05A·HAP12/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.770.730.470.271.07
vs Stronger (12)0.670.920.830.830.501.00
vs Similar (18)0.390.670.670.220.111.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (22)
€7m
HRG (26)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
BY (26)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (3)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
BY (5)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (11)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
BY (12)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
MKJ (4)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
MKJ wins
1
Draws
1
HA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Afula · H/A from MKJ
DateH/AGameScore
09/01/23HMKJ Vs Hapoel Afula0-1
05/09/22AHapoel Afula Vs MKJ0-0

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/23HMKJ Vs Hapoel Petah Tikva0-0
05/05/23AMaccabi Petah Tikva Vs MKJ3-1
28/04/23HMKJ Vs Hapoel Kfar Saba2-1
21/04/23AHapoel Acre Vs MKJ0-0
14/04/23ABnei Yehuda Vs MKJ2-0
10/04/23HMKJ Vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm2-1
31/03/23AIroni Tiberias Vs MKJ1-0
17/03/23AHapoel Rishon LeZion Vs MKJ2-2
10/03/23HMKJ Vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon0-3
03/03/23AMaccabi Ahi Nazareth Vs MKJ0-4

Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/23AHapoel Nazareth Illit Vs HA3-0
05/05/23HHA Vs Kafr Qasim0-2
28/04/23AAgudat Sport Ashdod Vs HA0-2
21/04/23HHA Vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon3-4
14/04/23AHapoel Rishon LeZion Vs HA5-3
07/04/23HHA Vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth1-1
03/04/23HHA Vs Hapoel Ramat Gan3-0
17/03/23AHapoel Acre Vs HA1-0
13/03/23HHA Vs Hapoel Petah Tikva1-2
06/03/23AHapoel Ramat Gan Vs HA1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Israel: Liga Leumit
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLD1.41
HomeWLWWD1.61
AwayDLLDL1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%50%32%
AVG goals2.622.782.47
Over 1.5 %70%78%63%
Over 2.5 %51%61%42%
Over 3.5 %30%22%37%
Scored1.271.331.21
Conceded1.351.441.26
BTTS49%56%42%
Clean Sheet24%17%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
Israel: Liga Leumit
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.24
HomeLWDLL1.79
AwayLLLWL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%47%17%
AVG goals2.702.582.83
Over 1.5 %76%79%72%
Over 2.5 %49%47%50%
Over 3.5 %19%21%17%
Scored1.321.631.00
Conceded1.380.951.83
BTTS51%47%56%
Clean Sheet30%47%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIroni Kiryat Shmona3776
65%
2.1
6623+43
2.4
68%
43%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3121.80.6
-
2Ironi TiberiasIroni Tiberias3772
54%
1.9
6234+28
2.6
78%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.9
-
3Bnei YehudaBnei Yehuda3772
59%
1.9
7145+26
3.1
78%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
4Hapoel Nazareth IllitHapoel Nazareth Illit3763
49%
1.7
6239+23
2.7
76%
49%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
5Maccabi Kabilio JaffaMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa3751
38%
1.4
6862+6
3.5
89%
68%
49%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.7
-
6Hapoel AcreHapoel Acre3750
32%
1.4
5449+5
2.8
70%
49%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
7Hapoel Ramat HaSharonHapoel Ramat HaSharon3750
35%
1.4
6464+0
3.5
86%
68%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Maccabi HerzliyaMaccabi Herzliya3750
35%
1.4
4361-18
2.8
81%
54%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.6
-
9Kafr QasimKafr Qasim3747
32%
1.3
4450-6
2.5
65%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.4
-
10Hapoel Umm al-FahmHapoel Umm al-Fahm3746
30%
1.2
4751-4
2.6
84%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11Hapoel Ramat GanHapoel Ramat Gan3744
30%
1.2
4743+4
2.4
59%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
12Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula3743
30%
1.2
4454-10
2.6
76%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
13Hapoel Rishon LeZionHapoel Rishon LeZion3743
30%
1.2
3748-11
2.3
76%
38%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.01.3
-
14Hapoel Kfar SabaHapoel Kfar Saba3843
26%
1.1
3647-11
2.2
55%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0010.91.2
-
15Sektzia Nes TzionaSektzia Nes Tziona3740
27%
1.1
4463-19
2.9
81%
49%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
16Ihud Bnei ShfaramIhud Bnei Shfaram3720
14%
0.5
3793-56
3.5
81%
70%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
17TiraTira11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Israel: Liga Leumit 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →

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