Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa are tipped to lift the win, with a 48% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of an away win. The model expects about 2.6 goals in total, with the most likely total being two goals, a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance. At home Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa average 1.5 goals scored and 1.42 conceded against similar opposition, while Hapoel Afula, playing away, average only 0.44 scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.2% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.9%. The home side’s recent form shows a 5-match record of LLLWW, after three straight defeats, and the last match ended 1-2. The away side comes off a four-game winning run, last match 3-2.
Results analysis
The win for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa extends their recent form, turning a three-game losing streak into a victory that capped a solid home run. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the model’s prediction of a home win, and the selection was correct. The model had given the home side a 48% chance, with a 28% draw and 24% away win probability. Its suggested picks were Over 1.5 at 74.2% and Under 3.5 at 73.9%; both hit, as the match saw two goals and a total below 3.5. The outcome matched the forecast, reinforcing confidence in the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
1.29
1.64
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.25
0.00
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.31
1.50
1.42
0.93
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.57
1.14
1.50
0.44
1.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.82
1.00
1.50
0.43
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
1.42
1.20
1.50
0.44
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
9.1%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals ↓
Hapoel Afula goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.6%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.4%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.8%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa goals (down), columns = Hapoel Afula goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Petah Tikva
2.38
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.38
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.92
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Acre
1.49
Maccabi Herzliya
1.38
Kafr Qasim
1.35
Bnei Yehuda
1.35
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.30
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.27
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.16
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.11
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
0.92
Hapoel Afula
0.70
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0.62
Nordia Jerusalem
0.00
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.41 points better than Hapoel Afula in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.11
Nordia Jerusalem
2.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.92
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.76
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.73
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.68
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Bnei Yehuda
1.32
Maccabi Herzliya
1.24
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.19
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.16
Hapoel Acre
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.08
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.08
Kafr Qasim
0.95
Hapoel Afula
0.81
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0.78
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.38 goals better than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.54
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0.68
Kafr Qasim
0.89
Hapoel Ramat Gan
0.95
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.22
Hapoel Acre
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.32
Bnei Yehuda
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.43
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.43
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.49
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.53
Hapoel Afula
1.65
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.73
Maccabi Herzliya
1.73
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.92
Nordia Jerusalem
5.00
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa is 0.22 goals better than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.57
0.64
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.73
0.75
0.25
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.58
0.50
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.86
1.14
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
2.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.73
1.00
0.92
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.57
0.86
0.12
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.09
0.25
1.25
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.84
0.70
0.70
0.11
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (27)
€18m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BY (26)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (13)
€11m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (4)
€2m
HPT (5)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
BY (5)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (10)
€5m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BY (12)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Afula have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →