Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias Result & Analysis

The model favours a home win for Maccabi Petah Tikva, with a 54% chance, compared to a 26% draw and a 20% away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, but the most likely total is two goals, carrying a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance of occurring. In recent form, Maccabi Petah Tikva has been strong at home, averaging 1.83 goals scored and conceding only 0.67 against similarly matched opponents, while Ironi Tiberias, on the road, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 75.2% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.7%. These selections are presented as the model’s choices, each with its own probability, and no other outcomes are assigned winning chances. The overall shape points to a competitive match where the home side’s defensive solidity and recent winning streak give them the edge.

The upset came early as Ironi Tiberias overturned a 4-game winning streak by Maccabi Petah Tikva, ending the home side’s run with a 0-3 defeat. The pre-match favourite was the home win at 54% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-3 confirmed an away win. The model’s suggested picks were Over 1.5 at 75.2% and Under 3.5 at 72.7%; both selections hit. The match also saw the most likely total of 2 goals at 26% and the most probable scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0. The outcome was a clear reversal of expectations, with the away side delivering a decisive victory.