This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.13
2.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.00
0.60
1.20
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.73
1.20
1.40
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.6%
Under 2.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
3-0
6.6%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
4.9%
Mafra goals ↓
Leixoes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
3.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.1%
9.7%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.8%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.6%
7.3%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.6%
4.0%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mafra goals (down), columns = Leixoes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
Mafra is 0.21 points better than Leixoes in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
Mafra is 0.32 goals better than Leixoes in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
Mafra is 0.12 goals worse than Leixoes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
Mafra is 0.7 percentage points better than Leixoes in terms of average possession (53% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mafra
For 4.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leixoes
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 14.4 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mafra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (42)
9.9
9.6
10.1
3.8
3.1
4.4
26.4
27.0
25.9
vs Stronger (12)
9.8
8.2
12.3
3.2
3.3
3.0
22.0
22.5
21.3
vs Similar (30)
9.9
10.3
9.6
4.0
3.0
4.9
27.8
29.0
27.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
43%
56%
55%
45%
64%
76%
85%
69%
% under line
50%
57%
44%
45%
55%
36%
24%
15%
31%
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (42)
11.0
10.8
11.2
4.6
4.9
4.4
28.5
28.3
28.8
vs Stronger (11)
8.9
9.3
8.0
5.8
6.1
5.2
29.1
30.5
26.3
vs Similar (31)
11.9
11.8
12.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
28.3
26.8
29.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
60%
62%
67%
67%
67%
87%
73%
100%
% under line
39%
40%
38%
33%
33%
33%
13%
27%
0%
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AVS
14.0
Nacional
11.6
Academico Viseu
11.3
Oliveirense
11.1
Leixoes
11.0
FC Porto B
10.9
Penafiel
10.8
Feirense
10.6
Benfica B
10.4
Pacos Ferreira
10.3
Mafra
9.9
Tondela
9.9
Maritimo
9.7
Santa Clara
9.3
Torreense
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Oliveirense
6.7
Maritimo
6.5
Leixoes
6.3
Santa Clara
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Pacos Ferreira
6.0
Academico Viseu
5.9
Tondela
5.8
Torreense
5.7
Nacional
5.5
Benfica B
5.5
Penafiel
5.5
Feirense
5.3
Mafra
5.3
AVS
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
33.4
Oliveirense
31.8
Feirense
31.8
Pacos Ferreira
31.6
AVS
31.0
Santa Clara
31.0
Penafiel
30.5
Nacional
29.4
Tondela
28.6
Leixoes
28.5
Torreense
27.9
FC Porto B
26.7
Mafra
26.4
Academico Viseu
25.7
Benfica B
25.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.7%
Under 9.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.9%
Under 21.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mafra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.71
0.79
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.50
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.73
0.67
1.00
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.62
0.40
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.82
0.50
0.80
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mafra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mafra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.79
0.29
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.40
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
1.00
0.22
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.53
0.67
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.38
0.20
0.80
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.91
0.70
0.60
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mafra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mafra · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rodrigo Matos33%
Pontus Texel25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme40%
Rodrigo Freitas33%
Martin Fraisl25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Yacouba Maiga25%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Friday Etim33%
Bryan Passi25%
Vítor Gonçalves25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Stanley Iheanacho0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rodrigo Matos33%
Friday Etim33%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Guilherme20%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Leixoes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bryan Róchez80%
Benjamin Kanuric50%
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Paulité25%
Ricardo Valente12%
Salvador Agra10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Cláudio Araújo0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neto50%
Paulinho Mota44%
Rafael Santos40%
Hugues Evrard33%
Miguel Sousa33%
Gonçalo Tabuaço33%
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Paulité25%
José Bica25%
Serif Nhaga25%
Hugo Faria25%
Werton22%
Salvador Agra20%
Simãozinho20%
Bryan Róchez20%
Amadu Balde17%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Ricardo Valente0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Semeu Commey0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Cláudio Araújo20%
Amadu Balde17%
Lourenco Henriques14%
Salvador Agra10%
Simãozinho10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
José Bica0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Semeu Commey0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Hugo Faria0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez40%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Salvador Agra20%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Benjamin Kanuric0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Santa Clara
Nacional
Maritimo
AVS
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Academico Viseu
União de Leiria
Penafiel
Feirense
Oliveirense
Vilaverdense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa