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Maidenhead vs Dover Athletic Result & Analysis

Date: 28/08/2021
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
M
Maidenhead
Vs
70%
19%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
DA
Dover Athletic
England: National League
Referee: A Quelch
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maidenhead win✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied 54.9% · @ 1.69
Edge
+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.79
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic win✗ Miss
11.5%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.50
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D22D42W04L03L00D12L02L41W21WA·KIN01/05H·WRE03/05A·HAR08/05H·NOT11/05H·SUT15/05A·YEO18/05H·HAL22/05A·BAR25/05A·BOR29/05A·HAL21/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.331.311.441.861.21
vs Stronger (3)1.331.331.001.002.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.171.331.001.171.331.50
vs Weaker (15)1.931.331.621.752.290.86
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dover Athletic

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W01L15L02L01L11D13L02L31W13LH·EAS27/10H·ALT31/10H·WOK17/11A·KIN21/11H·DAG26/12H·BOR12/01A·WRE16/01H·SOL23/01H·BAR26/01A·YEO30/01
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.802.331.002.000.502.83
vs Stronger (8)0.881.881.250.750.503.00
vs Similar (7)0.712.860.803.000.502.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.2%
@ 1.88+13.3%
Under 2.5
36.8%
@ 1.87-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
10.8%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.9%
3-0
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.1%
0-0
4.7%
Maidenhead goals ↓
Dover Athletic goals →
01234
04.7%2.6%1.5%0.4%0.1%
18.3%8.9%3.6%1.1%0.2%
211%9.6%4.2%1.3%0.3%
38.6%7.6%3.4%1.0%0.2%
45.1%4.5%2.0%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maidenhead goals (down), columns = Dover Athletic goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Maidenhead is 0.86 points better than Dover Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 0.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Maidenhead is 0.25 goals better than Dover Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 0.84).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Maidenhead is 0.77 goals better than Dover Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 2.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

M
Maidenhead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W21W01L00D00D01L00D20W01LA·KIN01/05H·WRE03/05A·HAR08/05H·NOT11/05H·SUT15/05A·YEO18/05H·HAL22/05A·BAR25/05A·BOR29/05A·HAL21/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.690.440.640.57
vs Stronger (3)1.000.331.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.500.500.330.330.67
vs Weaker (15)0.800.530.750.620.860.43
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dover Athletic

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L13L01L00D01L11D01L30W11DH·EAS27/10H·ALT31/10H·WOK17/11A·KIN21/11H·DAG26/12H·BOR12/01A·WRE16/01H·SOL23/01H·BAR26/01A·YEO30/01
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.070.671.110.331.00
vs Stronger (8)0.500.620.750.250.251.00
vs Similar (7)0.571.570.601.800.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

M
Maidenhead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L21W03L03L00D11D02L21W20WA·KIN01/05H·WRE03/05A·HAR08/05H·NOT11/05H·SUT15/05A·YEO18/05H·HAL22/05A·BAR25/05A·BOR29/05A·HAL21/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.830.621.001.210.64
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.750.830.500.831.000.83
vs Weaker (15)1.130.800.881.121.430.43
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dover Athletic

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L01L01L10W02L01L01L02LH·EAS27/10H·ALT31/10H·WOK17/11A·KIN21/11H·DAG26/12H·BOR12/01A·WRE16/01H·SOL23/01H·BAR26/01A·YEO30/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.271.270.330.890.171.83
vs Stronger (8)0.381.250.500.500.252.00
vs Similar (7)0.141.290.201.200.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards87.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.584.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards75.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MAI wins
0
Draws
0
DA wins

Head-to-head

Maidenhead vs Dover Athletic · H/A from MAI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/21AHalifax Vs MAI1-2
29/05/21ABoreham Wood Vs MAI1-4
25/05/21ABarnet Vs MAI2-0
22/05/21HMAI Vs Halifax1-2
18/05/21AYeovil Vs MAI0-0
15/05/21HMAI Vs Sutton0-3
11/05/21HMAI Vs Notts County0-4
08/05/21AHartlepool Vs MAI2-4
03/05/21HMAI Vs Wrexham2-2
01/05/21AKing’s Lynn Vs MAI0-0

DA
Dover Athletic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/01/21AYeovil Vs DA3-1
26/01/21HDA Vs Barnet3-1
23/01/21HDA Vs Solihull0-2
16/01/21AWrexham Vs DA3-1
12/01/21HDA Vs Boreham Wood1-1
26/12/20HDA Vs Dag and Red0-1
21/11/20AKing’s Lynn Vs DA2-0
17/11/20HDA Vs Woking1-5
31/10/20HDA Vs Altrincham0-1
27/10/20HDA Vs Eastleigh3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

M
Maidenhead
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.37
HomeLDLLL1.19
AwayWDLWW1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%33%41%
AVG goals2.913.052.77
Over 1.5 %72%71%73%
Over 2.5 %63%67%59%
Over 3.5 %40%48%32%
Scored1.491.431.55
Conceded1.421.621.23
BTTS51%48%55%
Clean Sheet26%19%32%
Corners---
Cards3.403.383.41
DA
Dover Athletic
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWL0.67
HomeLLDLW1.11
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%33%0%
AVG goals3.133.003.33
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %53%44%67%
Over 3.5 %47%44%50%
Scored0.801.000.50
Conceded2.332.002.83
BTTS47%44%50%
Clean Sheet7%11%0%
Corners---
Cards3.533.673.33

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red		4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay		4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead		4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn		4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth		4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic		4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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