Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Deportivo La Coruña, a 30% draw, and a 28% home victory for Málaga. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, centring on a 2-goal outcome that is the most probable total. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.1% probability. Málaga, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages one goal scored and one conceded, while Deportivo, on the road, averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 89.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.6%, Under 3.5 at 77.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 76.7%, and Over 1.5 at 70.8%. Málaga’s recent form shows a 5-match record of LDLWD, just off a heavy 0-4 loss to Real Madrid, while Deportivo’s last five are WDDLW, fresh from a 3-1 win over Valencia.

The upset came early as Malaga overturned expectations, beating Deportivo La Coruna 3-0 and ending a run that had seen them lose their last match. The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 42%, proved wrong. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 90.5%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 89.4%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 81.3%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 79.6%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.5%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 76.7%, and Over 1.5 hit at 70.8%. The final score of 3-0 confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s favourite.