This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
3.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.92
0.96
3.77
0.92
1.91
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
3.14
0.82
4.08
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.0%
Under 1.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.8%
No
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
16.5%
0-2
13.2%
0-0
13.0%
1-1 ✓
12.5%
1-2
8.5%
0-3
6.6%
1-0
6.4%
1-3
4.2%
Malaga goals ↓
Real Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
17%
13%
6.6%
2.5%
1
6.4%
12%
8.5%
4.2%
1.6%
2
2.4%
3.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
3
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Malaga goals (down), columns = Real Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.39
Real Madrid
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.32
Villarreal
1.68
Athletic Club
1.63
Celta Vigo
1.58
Sevilla
1.37
Real Sociedad
1.26
Malaga
1.26
Real Betis
1.18
Las Palmas
1.16
Valencia
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Eibar
1.13
Deportivo La Coruna
1.11
Sporting Gijon
1.03
Granada CF
1.03
Rayo Vallecano
1.00
Getafe
0.95
Levante
0.84
Malaga is 1.11 points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 2.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.95
Real Madrid
2.89
Atletico Madrid
1.66
Athletic Club
1.53
Rayo Vallecano
1.37
Celta Vigo
1.34
Sevilla
1.34
Eibar
1.29
Granada CF
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Real Sociedad
1.18
Deportivo La Coruna
1.18
Las Palmas
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Sporting Gijon
1.05
Espanyol
1.05
Malaga
1.00
Getafe
0.97
Levante
0.97
Real Betis
0.89
Malaga is 1.89 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.47
Barcelona
0.76
Real Madrid
0.89
Malaga
0.92
Villarreal
0.92
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.26
Valencia
1.26
Sevilla
1.32
Real Betis
1.37
Las Palmas
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.55
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Eibar
1.61
Sporting Gijon
1.63
Getafe
1.76
Granada CF
1.82
Levante
1.84
Rayo Vallecano
1.92
Espanyol
1.95
Malaga is 0.03 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Malaga
For 4.1 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.0 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
For 7.1 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malaga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
9.8
8.6
10.8
6.0
6.2
5.9
28.6
27.4
29.6
vs Stronger (13)
9.8
8.0
12.0
6.1
6.6
5.5
29.5
28.7
30.5
vs Similar (11)
9.7
9.8
9.7
6.0
5.5
6.3
27.5
25.0
28.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
36%
69%
83%
91%
77%
83%
82%
85%
% under line
46%
64%
31%
17%
9%
23%
17%
18%
15%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
10.7
11.1
10.3
4.8
4.5
5.2
25.1
22.7
28.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
10.0
14.0
6.0
8.0
6.0
10.0
27.0
23.0
31.0
vs Weaker (22)
10.8
10.8
10.7
4.5
4.4
4.7
25.0
22.7
27.7
% over line
62%
54%
73%
75%
69%
82%
67%
46%
91%
% under line
38%
46%
27%
25%
31%
18%
33%
54%
9%
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valencia
11.7
Sevilla
11.4
Villarreal
11.0
Real Madrid
10.7
Espanyol
10.7
Athletic Club
10.5
Deportivo La Coruna
10.5
Rayo Vallecano
10.3
Real Sociedad
10.2
Celta Vigo
10.1
Real Betis
10.1
Getafe
10.0
Malaga
9.8
Levante
9.6
Barcelona
9.6
Granada CF
9.6
Eibar
9.4
Sporting Gijon
9.2
Atletico Madrid
8.8
Las Palmas
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Granada CF
6.2
Celta Vigo
6.2
Real Betis
6.2
Levante
6.1
Espanyol
6.1
Malaga
6.0
Sevilla
6.0
Valencia
5.9
Real Sociedad
5.9
Athletic Club
5.8
Eibar
5.8
Villarreal
5.6
Getafe
5.4
Las Palmas
5.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.1
Atletico Madrid
5.1
Sporting Gijon
5.1
Barcelona
4.9
Real Madrid
4.8
Deportivo La Coruna
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valencia
33.7
Espanyol
32.2
Granada CF
30.2
Las Palmas
29.3
Levante
29.2
Celta Vigo
29.2
Malaga
28.6
Sevilla
28.5
Real Betis
28.4
Villarreal
28.4
Rayo Vallecano
28.1
Eibar
27.8
Athletic Club
27.4
Real Sociedad
27.0
Getafe
26.3
Sporting Gijon
26.0
Atletico Madrid
25.7
Barcelona
25.4
Real Madrid
25.1
Deportivo La Coruna
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.9%
Under 9.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.5%
Under 3.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.6%
Under 21.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Malaga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.50
0.82
0.18
0.08
0.77
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.54
0.71
0.29
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.45
1.00
0.00
0.14
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
0.42
2.31
0.46
1.09
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.86
0.36
2.50
0.33
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Malaga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Malaga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.38
0.45
0.45
0.46
0.31
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.38
0.29
0.43
0.17
0.33
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.36
0.75
0.50
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.54
1.46
0.46
0.82
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.27
0.45
1.58
0.33
0.90
0.60
Clean sheet %
54% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Malaga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Malaga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ramón Enríquez67%
Carlos Puga33%
Juan Cruz33%
David Larrubia33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Chupete0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Rodriguez33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Real Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
RV (23)
€76m
MAL (27)
€41m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Malaga's squad is €1415m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€41m vs €1456m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Malaga's attack is €816m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€26m vs €842m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Malaga's midfield is €231m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€6m vs €238m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
EIB (10)
€5m
Malaga's defence is €368m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€9m vs €377m).
Spain: La Liga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Valencia
Las Palmas
Eibar
Espanyol
Deportivo La Coruna
Sporting Gijon
Granada CF
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
Levante