Mal\u017eenice are favoured to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 28% draw probability and a 26% chance for Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 to prevail. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.4% chance. In recent form Mal\u017eenice have scored an average of 2.0 goals per home match and conceded only 0.43, while Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161, playing away, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.8% and Under 3.5 at 73.3%. The home win probability is 46%, the draw 28%, and the away win 26%. The model’s selection for the most likely scoreline is 1-1.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Maléniče, failed to deliver a home win, with the final score 1-4 giving Liptovský Mikuláš the victory. The model had picked a home win with a 46% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, reflecting the 74.8% chance, while Under 3.5 missed, despite a 73.3% probability. Maléniče’s recent form, a win that extended a streak, could not stop the visitors, who were coming off a defeat. The match produced four goals, far above the expected 2.6 and the most likely total of 2.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Malženice win✗ Miss
46.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Liptovský Mikuláš win✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Malženice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.57
1.53
0.87
1.00
2.27
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.83
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (15)
1.47
1.40
2.00
0.43
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Liptovský Mikuláš) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liptovský Mikuláš
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.63
2.19
1.62
1.43
1.64
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.89
1.40
2.00
1.25
1.75
vs Similar (19)
2.16
1.47
2.70
1.60
1.56
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Malženice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
Malženice goals ↓
Liptovský Mikuláš goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
6.7%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
1
10.0%
13%
6.6%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.3%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.3%
4.7%
2.6%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Malženice goals (down), columns = Liptovský Mikuláš goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tatran Prešov
2.42
Zlaté Moravce
2.00
Považská Bystrica
1.69
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.65
Púchov
1.50
Petržalka
1.42
Malženice
1.31
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.31
Žilina II
1.19
Šamorín
1.15
Pohronie
1.12
Slovan Bratislava II
1.08
Stará Ľubovňa
0.92
Humenné
0.88
Malženice is 0.35 points worse than Liptovský Mikuláš in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tatran Prešov
1.96
Púchov
1.62
Považská Bystrica
1.62
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.62
Zlaté Moravce
1.58
Pohronie
1.42
Malženice
1.27
Slovan Bratislava II
1.27
Petržalka
1.23
Žilina II
1.23
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.15
Šamorín
1.12
Stará Ľubovňa
0.92
Humenné
0.77
Malženice is 0.35 goals worse than Liptovský Mikuláš in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zlaté Moravce
0.69
Tatran Prešov
0.73
Petržalka
1.00
Stará Ľubovňa
1.15
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.19
Považská Bystrica
1.35
Púchov
1.38
Humenné
1.50
Žilina II
1.50
Šamorín
1.54
Malženice
1.54
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.58
Slovan Bratislava II
1.65
Pohronie
1.96
Malženice is 0.35 goals worse than Liptovský Mikuláš in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Malženice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.07
0.47
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.80
1.57
0.29
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Liptovský Mikuláš) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liptovský Mikuláš
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.87
1.38
0.88
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.33
1.20
1.40
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (19)
1.42
0.68
1.60
0.70
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Malženice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Malženice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liptovský Mikuláš over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liptovský Mikuláš over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liptovský Mikuláš over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Malženice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.47
0.40
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.60
0.43
0.14
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Liptovský Mikuláš) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liptovský Mikuláš
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.81
0.75
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.20
0.60
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
1.10
0.90
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Malženice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Malženice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liptovský Mikuláš over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liptovský Mikuláš over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liptovský Mikuláš over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (19)
€2m
PET (23)
€2m
ŠAM (22)
€2m
POH (17)
€1m
LZ (16)
€1m
ZM (14)
€1m
LM (14)
€1m
PB (17)
€1m
ŽI (12)
€1m
SBI (18)
€1m
MAL (13)
€1m
HUM (4)
€0m
Malženice and Liptovský Mikuláš have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (7)
€1m
PET (10)
€1m
LM (8)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€0m
ŽI (4)
€0m
POH (4)
€0m
PB (4)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ZM (3)
€0m
HUM (2)
€0m
SBI (4)
€0m
LZ (3)
€0m
Malženice and Liptovský Mikuláš have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŠAM (6)
€1m
LZ (3)
€0m
TP (4)
€0m
PB (6)
€0m
SBI (8)
€0m
PET (5)
€0m
POH (5)
€0m
ZM (4)
€0m
LM (2)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Malženice and Liptovský Mikuláš have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (8)
€1m
ZM (7)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
POH (8)
€1m
LZ (10)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€1m
ŽI (7)
€0m
PB (7)
€0m
MAL (7)
€0m
SBI (6)
€0m
LM (4)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Malženice and Liptovský Mikuláš have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovakia: 2. liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tatran Prešov
Zlaté Moravce
Považská Bystrica
Púchov
Petržalka
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Žilina II
Šamorín
Pohronie
Slovan Bratislava II
Stará Ľubovňa
Humenné