PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match between Mamer and Jeunesse Canach in the Luxembourg National Division promises to be a closely contested affair. Recent form suggests that both teams are coming off draws, with Mamer drawing 0-0 against Wiltz and Jeunesse Canach drawing 1-1 against Résidence Walferdange. This finely balanced match has the away win as the model's selection, with a 40% probability of Jeunesse Canach emerging victorious.
The expected total goals is 2.4, with a most likely score of 1-1, occurring with a probability of 14.2%. Mamer has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1.33 goals per match, while Jeunesse Canach has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (90.7%), Over 3.5 cards (90.2%), Under 3.5 (77.3%), and Over 1.5 (71.1%). Mamer has a 30% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 40% chance of losing.
The draw between Mamer and Jeunesse Canach extends the hosts' run of consecutive draws. In a surprising turn of events, the match ended 0-0, resulting in a draw. The pre-match favourite was the away win, with a 40% probability, but unfortunately, the model's selection was incorrect. The model's call was wrong as it predicted the away team to win. The model's selection was also the most likely outcome with a 27% probability of 2 goals being scored. The suggested picks included Under 3.5, which hit with a 77.3% probability, and Over 1.5, which missed with a 71.1% probability.
Mamer| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.14 | 2.03 | 0.86 | 1.79 | 1.40 | 2.27 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.12 | 1.25 | 1.88 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.31 | 2.08 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.57 | 2.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-16pp vs league) | |||||
Jeunesse Canach| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.87 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.69 | 1.56 | 0.62 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.62 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.38 | 1.46 | 1.14 | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Jeunesse Canach goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 10% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 14% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
MamerJeunesse CanachMamer| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (29) | 10.3 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 30.3 | 35.0 | 28.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 35.0 | 35.0 | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 28.0 | - | 28.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 67% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 7% | 13% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 33% | 100% | 0% | 90% | 93% | 87% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Jeunesse Canach| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (31) | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 30.6 | 30.5 | 30.7 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 31.0 | - | 31.0 |
| vs Similar (14) | 8.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 30.5 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 40% | 100% | 0% | 13% | 7% | 19% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 60% | 0% | 100% | 87% | 93% | 81% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 90.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 90.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/25 | A | 2-3 |
Mamer| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
Jeunesse Canach| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Atert Bissen | 30 | 65 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 27 | +43 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 37% | 8.6 | 40% | 6.6 | 100% | 26.0 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 65 | 63% | 2.2 | 63 | 22 | +41 | 2.8 | 70% | 50% | 40% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 28.5 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 54% |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 60 | 63% | 2.0 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 6.2 | 80% | 25.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 4 |  UNA Strassen | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 57 | 26 | +31 | 2.8 | 70% | 53% | 37% | 7.8 | 0% | 5.6 | 60% | 28.2 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 57% |
| 5 |  F91 Dudelange | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 59 | 38 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 8.0 | 0% | 7.4 | 80% | 24.7 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 6 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 40 | 33% | 1.3 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 2.3 | 70% | 33% | 20% | 8.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 7 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 3.3 | 77% | 57% | 43% | 7.5 | 0% | 8.8 | 100% | 26.5 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 8 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 3.0 | 83% | 57% | 33% | 9.2 | 50% | 6.6 | 80% | 27.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 41% |
| 9 |  US Hostert | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 3.0 | 73% | 57% | 40% | 8.4 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 29.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 10 |  Victoria Rosport | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 2.8 | 73% | 60% | 27% | 9.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 60% | 25.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 11 |  Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 77% | 53% | 33% | 7.5 | 25% | 5.0 | 80% | 22.2 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 60% |
| 12 |  Swift Hesperange | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 2.6 | 70% | 50% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 6.6 | 100% | 29.6 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 13 | Jeunesse Canach | 31 | 32 | 29% | 1.0 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 2.4 | 58% | 48% | 29% | 8.2 | 40% | 5.6 | 80% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 14 | Mamer | 31 | 30 | 26% | 1.0 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 3.0 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 10.3 | 67% | 6.8 | 75% | 30.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 15 |  Union Titus Petange | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 26 | 49 | -23 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 17% | 5.2 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 26.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 16 |  Rodange 91 | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 28 | 65 | -37 | 3.1 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 9.3 | 33% | 7.8 | 100% | 28.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 17 |  Résidence Walferdange | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 |  Wiltz | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |