PythiaFootballBETA
This Luxembourg National Division match between Mamer and Wiltz is finely balanced, with Mamer coming off a draw against Wiltz and Wiltz having suffered a defeat against FC Differdange 03. The home side, Mamer, has a 32% chance of winning, while Wiltz has a 39% chance of taking the three points. The draw is slightly less likely at 29%.
Wiltz is the model's selection to win the match, with an expected total of 2.6 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 13.7% of the time. Mamer has scored an average of 1.08 goals when facing stronger opponents, while conceding 2.42 goals on average. Wiltz has scored 1.08 goals on average when playing away against stronger opponents and conceded 2.42 goals.
The model suggests selecting Over 3.5 cards (89.6%), Over 21.5 fouls (88.8%), and Over 1.5 (74.8%), although the latter has a result of miss. Under 3.5 is also suggested with a probability of 73.3%, with a result of hit. Mamer has a 32% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 39% chance of losing.
In a stunning upset, Wiltz drew with Mamer, with the final score reading 0-0. This result extends Wiltz's run of consecutive draws to four, following their 1-2 defeat to FC Differdange 03. The pre-match favourite, Mamer, failed to come through, with the model's selection, an Away win, being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as it predicted Wiltz to win. The model's selection, an Away win, had a pre-match probability of 39%. The model also suggested Over 1.5, which had a probability of 74.8% but missed, while Under 3.5, with a probability of 73.3%, hit.
Mamer| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.97 | 0.80 | 1.67 | 1.40 | 2.27 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.12 | 1.25 | 1.88 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.21 | 1.93 | 0.86 | 1.14 | 1.57 | 2.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.97 | 1.25 | 1.81 | 1.00 | 2.14 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 0.96 | 2.12 | 0.85 | 1.85 | 1.08 | 2.42 |
| vs Similar (5) | 2.00 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Wiltz goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 14% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
MamerWiltzMamer| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (30) | 10.3 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 30.3 | 35.0 | 28.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 35.0 | 35.0 | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 28.0 | - | 28.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 67% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 7% | 13% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 33% | 100% | 0% | 90% | 93% | 87% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Wiltz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (43) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 cards | 89.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 88.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Mamer| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-2 |
Wiltz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/05/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 10/05/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 04/05/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 19/04/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 30/03/25 | H | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Atert Bissen | 30 | 65 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 27 | +43 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 37% | 8.6 | 40% | 6.6 | 100% | 26.0 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 65 | 63% | 2.2 | 63 | 22 | +41 | 2.8 | 70% | 50% | 40% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 28.5 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 54% |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 60 | 63% | 2.0 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 6.2 | 80% | 25.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 4 |  UNA Strassen | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 57 | 26 | +31 | 2.8 | 70% | 53% | 37% | 7.8 | 0% | 5.6 | 60% | 28.2 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 57% |
| 5 |  F91 Dudelange | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 59 | 38 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 8.0 | 0% | 7.4 | 80% | 24.7 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 6 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 40 | 33% | 1.3 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 2.3 | 70% | 33% | 20% | 8.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 7 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 3.3 | 77% | 57% | 43% | 7.5 | 0% | 8.8 | 100% | 26.5 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 8 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 3.0 | 83% | 57% | 33% | 9.2 | 50% | 6.6 | 80% | 27.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 41% |
| 9 |  US Hostert | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 3.0 | 73% | 57% | 40% | 8.4 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 29.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 10 |  Victoria Rosport | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 2.8 | 73% | 60% | 27% | 9.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 60% | 25.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 11 |  Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 77% | 53% | 33% | 7.5 | 25% | 5.0 | 80% | 22.2 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 60% |
| 12 |  Swift Hesperange | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 2.6 | 70% | 50% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 6.6 | 100% | 29.6 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 13 |  Jeunesse Canach | 31 | 32 | 29% | 1.0 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 2.4 | 58% | 48% | 29% | 8.2 | 40% | 5.6 | 80% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 14 | Mamer | 31 | 30 | 26% | 1.0 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 3.0 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 10.3 | 67% | 6.8 | 75% | 30.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 15 |  Union Titus Petange | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 26 | 49 | -23 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 17% | 5.2 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 26.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 16 |  Rodange 91 | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 28 | 65 | -37 | 3.1 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 9.3 | 33% | 7.8 | 100% | 28.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 17 |  Résidence Walferdange | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Wiltz | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |