Manchester City is the clear favourite to win against Bournemouth, with a 63% chance of a home win. The model predicts a home win, which is likely due to Bournemouth's struggles when facing stronger opponents away from home. They have conceded an average of 2 goals when playing against stronger teams on the road.
The expected total number of goals is 3.2, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10%.
Manchester City has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.17 goals and conceding 0.58 goals. In contrast, Bournemouth has struggled to score when facing weaker opponents at home, averaging 1.67 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 63% chance, and the suggested picks include Over 1.5, which is predicted to happen 83.9% of the time. The home side has a 63% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 16% chance of losing to Bournemouth. The suggested picks also include a 16.1% chance of a draw and a 15.9% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
The model’s forecast proved accurate as Manchester City secured a 2-1 victory over Bournemouth, extending their recent win streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was selected with a 63 % probability and the prediction was correct. Every suggested pick hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 %, Under 7.5 at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.9 %, Under 6.5 at 95.5 %, Home +2 handicap at 94.1 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.8 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.8 %. The match confirmed the model’s confidence, with the favoured result and selections largely coming through.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Manchester City win✓ Hit
62.6%
Avg Implied 64.2% · @ 1.48
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.80
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.08
BetVictor
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Bournemouth win✗ Miss
15.9%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.94
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.40
Bet365
6.25
1xBet
6.15
Betano
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Manchester City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.93
2.80
0.73
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
0.88
2.33
1.00
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
2.27
0.95
2.92
0.67
1.50
1.30
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.44
1.69
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.40
1.36
1.09
1.43
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
@ 1.12-0.2%
Under 1.5
16.1%
@ 5.89+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.1%
@ 1.43-3.8%
Under 2.5
37.9%
@ 2.76+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.82
Unibet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.9%
@ 2.10-5.5%
Under 3.5
60.1%
@ 1.74+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.16
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.11
10Bet
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.74
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
@ 1.54-2.7%
No
42.1%
@ 2.37+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
William Hil
1.53
No
Betfair
2.50
888Sport
2.45
William Hil
2.45
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 9.17+4.9%
2-1 ✓
9.9%@ 7.95+4.0%
2-0
9.6%@ 8.82+4.3%
1-0
7.9%@ 9.97+3.2%
3-1
7.2%@ 10.03+2.5%
3-0
7.0%@ 11.26+2.8%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.40+1.6%
0-0
5.0%@ 19.83+2.6%
Manchester City goals ↓
Bournemouth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
7.9%
10.0%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.6%
9.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
7.0%
7.2%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.8%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester City goals (down), columns = Bournemouth goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Manchester City is 0.55 points better than Bournemouth in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Manchester City is 0.50 goals better than Bournemouth in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Manchester City is 0.50 goals better than Bournemouth in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Manchester City is 10.5 percentage points better than Bournemouth in terms of average possession (60% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Manchester City
For 8.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 12.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 11.2 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bournemouth
For 5.3 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
10.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
21.3
20.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
10.4
11.6
9.3
4.8
5.2
4.5
24.4
22.0
26.3
vs Weaker (39)
10.2
10.2
10.2
3.4
3.1
3.8
20.4
20.2
20.6
% over line
58%
62%
54%
56%
50%
62%
50%
46%
54%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
44%
50%
38%
50%
54%
46%
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.2
11.0
4.4
4.2
4.7
23.3
23.2
23.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
13.0
9.4
3.4
3.0
3.8
20.9
19.3
21.8
vs Similar (41)
10.6
9.8
11.5
4.7
4.4
4.9
23.8
23.8
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
60%
62%
64%
54%
75%
59%
56%
62%
% under line
39%
40%
38%
36%
46%
25%
41%
44%
38%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.2
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.1
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Tottenham
23.0
Sunderland
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
22.0
Leeds
21.9
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.3%
@ 1.49-0.9%
Under 9.5
38.7%
@ 2.45+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.57
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.3%
@ 1.82+4.2%
Under 3.5
44.7%
@ 1.90-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.76
Under
Betano
2.05
Unibet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
46.6%
@ 2.09+2.1%
Under 21.5
53.4%
@ 1.68-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.55
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Manchester City or Draw✓ Hit
84.1%
Avg Implied 83.5% · @ 1.13
Edge
+0.6%
63%
21%
16%
covers Manchester City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Manchester City or Bournemouth✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied 80.7% · @ 1.17
Edge
-2.2%
63%
21%
16%
covers Manchester City + Bournemouth
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Draw or Bournemouth✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.64
Edge
+1.6%
63%
21%
16%
covers Draw + Bournemouth
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.71
1xBet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Manchester City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.7%
@ 1.06+0.4%
Under
11.3%
@ 8.03-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
888Sport
8.50
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Manchester City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
64.0%
@ 1.39-3.3%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.85+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Manchester City over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
37.1%
@ 2.23-4.9%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.61+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Manchester City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 4.16-4.8%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.20+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.46
BetVictor
4.33
888Sport
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bournemouth over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.2%
@ 1.42-1.3%
Under
35.8%
@ 2.71+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Bournemouth over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.5%
@ 3.01-3.6%
Under
72.5%
@ 1.35+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Marathonbet
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Bournemouth over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 7.79-3.5%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.60
888Sport
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Bournemouth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 21.12-2.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
888Sport
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Manchester City, so a minus line means Manchester City give that many goals of a start and Bournemouth receive them. At -1, Manchester City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Manchester City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Manchester City)Actual: Bournemouth
Manchester City -2
21.2%
@ 3.74-3.0%
Draw -2
19.1%
@ 4.36-1.7%
Bournemouth +2
59.7%
@ 1.65+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Handicap -1 (Manchester City)Actual: Draw
Manchester City -1
40.3%
@ 2.16-1.6%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.81-1.5%
Bournemouth +1
37.4%
@ 2.65+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Draw
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Unibet
3.70
Away
Marathonbet
2.71
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Handicap +1 (Manchester City)Actual: Manchester City
Manchester City +1
84.1%
@ 1.12+4.7%
Draw +1
10.0%
@ 7.08-2.5%
Bournemouth -1
5.9%
@ 11.00-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Manchester City)Actual: Manchester City
Manchester City +2
94.1%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Draw +2
4.3%
@ 17.00-1.3%
Bournemouth -2
1.6%
@ 37.50-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.37
1.67
0.20
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.27
0.27
1.75
0.08
0.70
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.64
0.36
0.45
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.3%
@ 1.22+0.4%
Under 0.5
22.7%
@ 4.05-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 2.04-1.2%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 1.74+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Unibet
2.08
Under
SBO
1.83
William Hil
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 4.35-6.5%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.19+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
63.2%
@ 1.45-1.3%
Under
36.8%
@ 2.63+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
10Bet
2.75
Superbet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.9%
@ 3.10-5.9%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.32+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Unibet
3.15
1xBet
3.10
Superbet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 7.78-5.6%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.5%
@ 2.40-2.4%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.52+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 8.14-5.2%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 22.00-3.7%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.13
0.53
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.68
1.17
0.58
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.79
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.76
1.00
0.64
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.8%
@ 1.13+0.5%
Under 0.5
16.2%
@ 5.61-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Under
1xBet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.1%
@ 1.66-3.8%
Under 1.5
46.9%
@ 2.19+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.7%
@ 3.01-5.5%
Under 2.5
74.3%
@ 1.36+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
69.8%
@ 1.30-1.6%
Under
30.2%
@ 3.25+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
33.5%
@ 2.38-5.6%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.52+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.34
Under
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 5.33-6.1%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.12+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.4%
@ 1.97-2.8%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.75+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 5.81-3.8%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.10+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.85
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 15.12-4.5%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.19
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.1%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.13
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.6%
1.24
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.17
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.5%
1.17
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.0%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.3%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
1.33
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.3%
1.36
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.9%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.5%
1.35
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
+3.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Manchester City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Erling Haaland55%
Antoine Semenyo42%
Rayan Cherki20%
Max Alleyne17%
Jérémy Doku15%
Phil Foden14%
Omar Marmoush14%
Nico O'Reilly13%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Savinho11%
Marc Guéhi10%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Rodri6%
Rúben Dias6%
Bernardo Silva6%
Nico González5%
Rico Lewis5%
Matheus Nunes2%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bernardo Silva28%
Gianluigi Donnarumma23%
Nico González20%
Rodri19%
Abdukodir Khusanov17%
Nico O'Reilly15%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Rúben Dias12%
Savinho11%
Phil Foden10%
Marc Guéhi10%
Omar Marmoush9%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Oscar Bobb7%
Tijjani Reijnders4%
Erling Haaland4%
Rayan Cherki4%
Antoine Semenyo4%
Nathan Aké3%
John Stones0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Divine Mukasa33%
Rayan Cherki24%
Jérémy Doku19%
Joško Gvardiol16%
Erling Haaland16%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Phil Foden12%
Antoine Semenyo12%
Nico O'Reilly12%
Mateo Kovačić11%
Bernardo Silva9%
Omar Marmoush9%
Oscar Bobb7%
Savinho6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rodri0%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Nathan Aké0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Erling Haaland53%
Antoine Semenyo19%
Omar Marmoush17%
Tijjani Reijnders15%
Rayan Cherki12%
Phil Foden10%
Savinho8%
Rodri6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rico Lewis5%
Jérémy Doku4%
Joško Gvardiol4%
Nico O'Reilly4%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
Matheus Nunes0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Bournemouth · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Antoine Semenyo38%
Eli Junior Kroupi34%
Rayan33%
Marcus Tavernier23%
Evanilson16%
Alex Scott10%
Justin Kluivert10%
Amine Adli9%
Tyler Adams8%
Ryan Christie7%
David Brooks6%
Enes Ünal4%
Álex Jiménez3%
Adrien Truffert3%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
James Hill0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Álex Jiménez31%
Tyler Adams31%
Antoine Semenyo29%
Justin Kluivert24%
Marcos Senesi21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
Julio Soler20%
David Brooks18%
James Hill16%
Alex Scott15%
Eli Junior Kroupi14%
Adam Smith13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Ryan Christie11%
Alex Tóth11%
Lewis Cook11%
Đorđe Petrović10%
Amine Adli9%
Rayan7%
Bafodé Diakité5%
Enes Ünal4%
Evanilson3%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antoine Semenyo14%
Rayan13%
Marcos Senesi13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Marcus Tavernier11%
Ben Gannon-Doak11%
James Hill10%
David Brooks9%
Adam Smith9%
Tyler Adams8%
Lewis Cook5%
Evanilson5%
Álex Jiménez3%
Amine Adli3%
Alex Scott3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Eli Junior Kroupi0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antoine Semenyo29%
Evanilson21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
David Brooks12%
Eli Junior Kroupi9%
Rayan7%
Alex Scott5%
James Hill3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Tyler Adams0%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Amine Adli0%
Adrien Truffert0%
Álex Jiménez0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Manchester City's squad is €753m more valuable than Bournemouth's (€1326m vs €573m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Manchester City's attack is €350m more valuable than Bournemouth's (€635m vs €285m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Manchester City's midfield is €54m more valuable than Bournemouth's (€160m vs €106m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Manchester City's defence is €349m more valuable than Bournemouth's (€531m vs €182m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham