The model sees a high-scoring encounter with an expected 3.3 goals, centring on a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11%. Mansfield’s home form shows a single goal scored and 2.33 conceded against stronger opposition, while Luton’s away form boasts two goals scored and only 1.22 conceded versus weaker teams. The probabilities favour an away win at 47%, with a 28% chance of a Mansfield victory and a 25% chance of a stalemate. The favoured result is an away win, reflected in the model’s pick.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.9% with a 4% edge, Under 6.5 at 95.2% with a 1% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.6% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.6% with a 2% edge, and Under 5.5 at 88.8%. Both teams are coming off defeats, with Mansfield losing 1-2 to Peterborough and Luton losing 0-2 to Chelsea.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Mansfield, riding a win-loss-win-loss-win streak, overturned the pre-match favourite Luton, who had been tipped to win with a 47% probability. The final score was 5-2, a home win that left the model’s pick wrong. The model’s selection of an away win, with a 47% chance, proved incorrect. Among the suggested picks, Under 7.5 (98.2%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%) missed, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9%) hit, Under 6.5 (95.2%) missed, Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%) missed, Away under 2.5 2H goals (91.9%) hit, and Under 5.5 (88.8%) missed. The match confirmed Mansfield’s strong home form and Luton’s struggles away, with the final score far exceeding the expected total of 3.3 goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mansfield win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.86
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.13
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Marathonbet
2.97
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.61
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Dafabet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Luton win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.25
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.41
10Bet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Betfair
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mansfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.13
1.62
1.31
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.71
1.00
2.33
2.00
1.25
vs Similar (23)
1.43
0.96
1.77
1.08
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.27
2.07
1.14
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.15
2.14
0.86
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (16)
2.00
1.31
2.00
1.43
2.00
1.22
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
@ 1.16+4.3%
Under 1.5
15.4%
@ 4.73-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.09
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.57+3.7%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.30-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.42
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
@ 2.43+2.3%
Under 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.53-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
BetVictor
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.5%
@ 1.49+2.1%
No
35.5%
@ 2.46-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 6.85+4.5%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.61+4.1%
2-1
7.0%@ 9.53+2.3%
0-2
6.6%@ 12.60+3.1%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.56+2.2%
0-1
6.2%@ 10.21+1.8%
1-3
5.7%@ 14.73+2.7%
0-0
4.9%@ 14.02+1.7%
Mansfield goals ↓
Luton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
6.2%
6.6%
4.1%
1.9%
1
4.4%
11%
9.3%
5.7%
2.7%
2
3.8%
7.0%
6.5%
4.0%
1.9%
3
1.8%
3.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mansfield goals (down), columns = Luton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Mansfield is 0.20 points worse than Luton in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield is 0.13 goals worse than Luton in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Mansfield is 0.13 goals better than Luton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Mansfield is 9.8 percentage points worse than Luton in terms of average possession (46% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mansfield
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.2 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Luton
For 6.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 14.0 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mansfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.7
3.5
3.4
3.7
22.1
21.7
22.5
vs Stronger (11)
9.5
9.6
9.5
3.6
3.8
3.5
21.3
22.4
20.3
vs Similar (37)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.7
3.4
3.9
22.4
21.6
23.2
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
42%
43%
40%
46%
42%
50%
54%
48%
60%
% under line
58%
57%
60%
54%
58%
50%
46%
52%
40%
This opponent (Luton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.5
9.4
3.7
3.6
3.7
24.0
24.0
23.9
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
-
12.0
1.0
-
1.0
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (23)
11.2
13.2
9.0
4.2
3.7
4.7
24.4
23.8
25.1
vs Weaker (26)
9.7
9.9
9.5
3.3
3.6
3.1
23.8
24.2
23.5
% over line
59%
67%
52%
50%
42%
58%
63%
62%
64%
% under line
41%
33%
48%
50%
58%
42%
37%
38%
36%
This opponent (Mansfield) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.1
Leicester
10.8
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Blackpool
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
10.1
Doncaster
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
8.9
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.0
Stevenage
3.8
Doncaster
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Luton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
Wigan
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.9
Plymouth
24.6
Bradford
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Huddersfield
24.4
Luton
23.8
Leyton Orient
23.5
Peterboro
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Wigan
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Doncaster
22.6
Burton
22.5
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Leicester
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.1
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.88+2.9%
Under 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.83-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.9%
Under 21.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mansfield or Draw✓ Hit
52.7%
Avg Implied 58.7% · @ 1.58
Edge
-6.0%
28%
25%
47%
covers Mansfield + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Mansfield or Luton✓ Hit
75.4%
Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.25
Edge
+1.1%
28%
25%
47%
covers Mansfield + Luton
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Luton✗ Miss
71.9%
Avg Implied 67.0% · @ 1.39
Edge
+4.9%
28%
25%
47%
covers Draw + Luton
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mansfield over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.3%
@ 1.23-0.2%
Under
24.7%
@ 3.79+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.97
10Bet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Mansfield over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.8%
@ 2.19-1.9%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.63+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Superbet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Mansfield over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.6%
@ 4.78-2.9%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.16+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Betfair
4.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Mansfield over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.4%
@ 11.58-2.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Luton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.3%
@ 1.17+5.2%
Under
15.7%
@ 4.43-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.15
Under
BetVictor
4.80
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Luton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.3%
@ 1.89+5.9%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.84-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Superbet
1.80
Luton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 3.80+4.0%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.23-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betano
3.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Luton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 9.04+1.4%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.04-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mansfield, so a minus line means Mansfield give that many goals of a start and Luton receive them. At -1, Mansfield must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mansfield win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mansfield)Actual: Mansfield
Mansfield -2
4.6%
@ 11.07-3.4%
Draw -2
8.3%
@ 7.20-4.0%
Luton +2
87.1%
@ 1.12+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Mansfield)Actual: Mansfield
Mansfield -1
12.9%
@ 5.35-3.8%
Draw -1
15.2%
@ 4.62-4.2%
Luton +1
71.9%
@ 1.41+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Superbet
5.15
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Handicap +1 (Mansfield)Actual: Mansfield
Mansfield +1
52.7%
@ 1.60-3.3%
Draw +1
20.5%
@ 4.14-1.2%
Luton -1
26.8%
@ 4.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.78
Handicap +2 (Mansfield)Actual: Mansfield
Mansfield +2
73.2%
@ 1.19-2.2%
Draw +2
14.6%
@ 6.33+0.5%
Luton -2
12.2%
@ 8.55+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mansfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.69
0.38
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.22
0.69
0.23
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.29
0.50
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.77
1.43
0.57
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.62
1.14
0.43
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.27+1.6%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.44-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.0%
@ 2.29-1.7%
Under 1.5
61.0%
@ 1.57+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Unibet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
BetVictor
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 5.26-2.5%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.13+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.25
1xBet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mansfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.1%
@ 1.94-0.6%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.78+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Unibet
1.93
Under
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Mansfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
14.1%
@ 5.65-2.3%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.10+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
Superbet
5.80
Betano
5.50
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Mansfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.6%
@ 15.83-3.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Luton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.4%
@ 1.78-2.7%
Under
50.6%
@ 1.94+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Luton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 4.89-5.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.14+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Luton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 12.92-4.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mansfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.94
0.94
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.86
0.33
1.33
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.74
1.08
0.85
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.79
0.64
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.71
0.29
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.69
0.86
1.00
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.3%
@ 1.16-1.2%
Under 0.5
20.7%
@ 4.76+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Betano
4.80
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.5%
@ 1.80-2.2%
Under 1.5
50.5%
@ 1.93+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.2%
@ 3.42-6.0%
Under 2.5
78.8%
@ 1.28+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
William Hil
3.30
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Under
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mansfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.2%
@ 1.64-2.2%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.12+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Mansfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
20.5%
@ 4.12-2.0%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.19+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Mansfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.33-5.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Luton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.2%
@ 1.55-3.5%
Under
43.8%
@ 2.30+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.49
Under
1xBet
2.43
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Luton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
20.0%
@ 3.59-5.8%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.25+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Luton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 9.28-1.9%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.10
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
88.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.14
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.13
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
84.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.3%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.15
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.19
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.28
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.1%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.24
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
73.2%
1.19
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
71.9%
1.39
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
71.9%
1.41
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
71.6%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
1.29
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
-0.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mansfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Smith33%
Jon Russell33%
L. Reed25%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
R. Oates0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
R. Hendry0%
L. Thompson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Sweeney50%
L. Reed50%
R. Oates25%
R. Hendry25%
L. Thompson25%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
M. Smith0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
Jon Russell0%
N. Moriah-Welsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jon Russell33%
R. Oates25%
R. Hendry25%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
M. Smith0%
L. Reed0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
L. Thompson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. McGoldrick33%
Jon Russell33%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
R. Oates0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
M. Smith0%
L. Reed0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
R. Hendry0%
L. Thompson0%
Luton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
N. Wells80%
C. Marshall50%
G. Kodua20%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
J. Richards0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Naismith33%
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh20%
N. Wells20%
G. Johnston20%
Isaiah Jones20%
G. Kodua20%
H. Odoffin0%
H. Ashby0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
N. Wells0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N. Wells40%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Mansfield's squad is €23m less valuable than Luton's (€6m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Mansfield's attack is €12m less valuable than Luton's (€1m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Mansfield and Luton have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Mansfield's defence is €10m less valuable than Luton's (€2m vs €12m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe