Maribor is the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 66% chance of a home win, 22% for a draw and 12% for Bravo to lift the trophy. The prediction hinges on Maribor’s strong home form, averaging 2.64 goals scored and only 0.82 conceded against similar opposition, while Bravo’s away average is 1.08 for and 0.83 against. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 12.5% chance.
The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 81.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.0% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 76.0% and Under 5.5 cards at 74.9%. Maribor’s recent two-game winning streak and a 3-2 win over Nafta give them momentum, while Bravo’s win over Mura on the road adds confidence. The model therefore favours a Maribor victory, reflecting the home side’s superior scoring edge and the venue’s weakness for the away team.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Maribor, failed to deliver, as the match ended 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick of a home win incorrect. Maribor, riding a two-game winning run, had been tipped to win with a 66% probability, while the model also suggested an over 1.5 goal outcome at 78%. That selection hit, as the game produced two goals. The model’s expected total of 2.8 goals and most likely score of 2-0 (25%) were not realised; instead the 1-1 result matched the third most likely score of 1-1 at 10.4%. Bravo, coming off a win, held their own, turning the upset into a balanced contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maribor win✗ Miss
66.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bravo win✗ Miss
12.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.93
2.80
0.67
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.05
1.10
2.64
0.82
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (9)
2.22
0.56
3.25
0.25
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.03
1.00
1.13
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.33
1.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.92
1.17
1.00
1.08
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.5%
1-0
11.4%
1-1 ✓
10.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
4.3%
Maribor goals ↓
Bravo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
3.7%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.5%
6.6%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.3%
3.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Bravo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.06
Maribor
1.86
Koper
1.83
Celje
1.69
Bravo
1.53
Triglav
1.50
Primorje
1.19
Radomlje
0.97
Mura
0.97
NK Domzale
0.84
Nafta
0.78
Maribor is 0.33 points better than Bravo in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.11
Triglav
2.00
Maribor
1.78
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.75
Koper
1.67
Bravo
1.44
Primorje
1.14
NK Domzale
1.05
Radomlje
1.03
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.92
Maribor is 0.33 goals better than Bravo in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.56
Maribor
0.89
Koper
0.97
Bravo
1.22
Celje
1.42
Mura
1.42
Primorje
1.69
NK Domzale
1.84
Nafta
1.92
Radomlje
1.92
Triglav
2.50
Maribor is 0.33 goals better than Bravo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maribor
For 3.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bravo
For 5.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.5
9.3
2.9
3.3
2.5
24.8
25.0
24.6
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
9.0
14.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.5
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (33)
8.6
8.3
9.0
3.4
4.0
2.8
27.5
27.2
27.9
vs Weaker (15)
10.6
12.5
8.8
1.7
1.6
1.9
20.8
20.5
21.0
% over line
43%
47%
38%
44%
42%
46%
65%
57%
75%
% under line
57%
53%
62%
56%
58%
54%
35%
43%
25%
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.5
9.1
2.0
1.8
2.2
22.8
22.5
23.2
vs Stronger (8)
9.5
9.3
10.0
1.8
2.5
1.0
23.5
23.0
25.0
vs Similar (42)
10.5
12.2
9.0
2.0
1.7
2.4
22.7
22.4
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
77%
46%
30%
28%
32%
54%
38%
69%
% under line
38%
23%
54%
70%
72%
68%
46%
62%
31%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.1
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.8%
Under 9.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.9%
Under 3.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.6%
Under 21.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.37
1.38
0.19
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.38
1.27
0.18
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.33
1.60
0.20
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.40
0.40
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.29
0.42
0.33
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.44
0.50
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.71
1.36
0.64
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.20
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Maribor's squad is €5m more valuable than Bravo's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Maribor's attack is €4m more valuable than Bravo's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor and Bravo have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Maribor's defence is €1m more valuable than Bravo's (€3m vs €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Koper
Celje
Primorje
Mura
Radomlje
NK Domzale
Nafta
Triglav