This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.53
2.33
1.73
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.69
1.75
1.62
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
1.29
3.33
1.83
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Maribor goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
5.9%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.3%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.4%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.2%
5.1%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.06
Maribor
1.86
Koper
1.83
Celje
1.69
Bravo
1.53
Triglav
1.50
Primorje
1.19
Radomlje
0.97
Mura
0.97
NK Domzale
0.84
Nafta
0.78
Maribor is 0.17 points better than Celje in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.69).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.11
Triglav
2.00
Maribor
1.78
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.75
Koper
1.67
Bravo
1.44
Primorje
1.14
NK Domzale
1.05
Radomlje
1.03
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.92
Maribor is 0.33 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 2.11).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.56
Maribor
0.89
Koper
0.97
Bravo
1.22
Celje
1.42
Mura
1.42
Primorje
1.69
NK Domzale
1.84
Nafta
1.92
Radomlje
1.92
Triglav
2.50
Maribor is 0.53 goals better than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.42).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Maribor
For 1.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 10.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 4.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 18.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celje
For 4.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
-
10.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
18.0
-
18.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
10.0
-
10.0
0.5
0.3
0.7
18.0
-
18.0
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
6%
4%
8%
0%
-
0%
% under line
0%
-
0%
94%
96%
92%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.8
8.3
1.6
1.5
1.7
26.6
26.3
26.8
vs Stronger (3)
6.7
5.0
7.5
4.3
6.0
3.5
26.7
30.0
25.0
vs Similar (25)
9.2
9.6
8.8
2.7
2.5
3.0
26.6
25.6
27.8
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
24%
28%
20%
75%
67%
83%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
76%
72%
80%
25%
33%
17%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.6
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Celje
4.4
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.7%
Under 3.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.5%
Under 21.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
1.15
0.46
0.41
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.47
0.86
0.71
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.27
1.50
0.17
0.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.77
0.88
0.75
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.57
1.17
0.83
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.94
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.71
0.57
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.40
1.33
0.17
1.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.87
1.40
0.93
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.92
0.88
0.88
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.71
2.17
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Celje
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armandas KuÄys57%
David Zec33%
Tamar Svetlin33%
Juanjo Nieto25%
AljoÅĄa Matko18%
Ivan BrniÄ17%
Svit SeÅĄlar17%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Klemen NemaniÄ9%
Edmilson8%
Mario KvesiÄ0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan VukliÅĄeviÄ0%
Nino Kouter0%
Å―an KarniÄnik0%
MatjaÅū Rozman0%
Marco Dulca0%
Mark Zabukovnik0%
Åukasz Bejger0%
Clement Lhernault0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Armandas KuÄys57%
Nino Kouter33%
Klemen NemaniÄ27%
Damjan VukliÅĄeviÄ20%
Mark Zabukovnik18%
David Zec17%
Ricardo Silva17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Tamar Svetlin17%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Mario KvesiÄ10%
Å―an KarniÄnik10%
Svit SeÅĄlar8%
Edmilson8%
Ivan BrniÄ0%
MatjaÅū Rozman0%
AljoÅĄa Matko0%
Marco Dulca0%
Åukasz Bejger0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Svit SeÅĄlar50%
Ivan BrniÄ33%
AljoÅĄa Matko18%
Mark Zabukovnik18%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Armandas KuÄys14%
Å―an KarniÄnik10%
Mario KvesiÄ0%
David Zec0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan VukliÅĄeviÄ0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Nino Kouter0%
MatjaÅū Rozman0%
Klemen NemaniÄ0%
Marco Dulca0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Åukasz Bejger0%
Edmilson0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
AljoÅĄa Matko36%
Armandas KuÄys29%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Mario KvesiÄ10%
Svit SeÅĄlar8%
Ivan BrniÄ0%
David Zec0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan VukliÅĄeviÄ0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Nino Kouter0%
Å―an KarniÄnik0%
MatjaÅū Rozman0%
Klemen NemaniÄ0%
Marco Dulca0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Mark Zabukovnik0%
Åukasz Bejger0%
Edmilson0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Maribor's squad is €4m less valuable than Celje's (€10m vs €14m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Maribor's attack is €2m less valuable than Celje's (€5m vs €7m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Maribor's defence is €3m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Koper
Bravo
Primorje
Mura
Radomlje
NK Domzale
Nafta
Triglav