Maribor’s recent 2-game winning streak against Nafta gives the home side a slight lift, yet the model still favours an away win for Mura, with a 57% probability versus Maribor’s 19% and a 24% chance of a draw. The expected total of three goals sits neatly around the 2-goal average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% chance. Maribor, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.5 conceded, while Mura, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.3%, Over 8.5 corners at 75.1%, and Under 4.5 cards at 74.5%. Each pick is listed with its probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Maribor turned a 2-game winning streak into a 5-1 triumph, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 57% probability. The final score of 5-1 confirmed a home win, a result the model had missed. The model’s selection of an away win was incorrect. Among the suggested picks, Under 5.5 cards at 87.1% missed, while Over 19.5 fouls at 86.6% hit. Over 1.5 at 80.9% and Over 21.5 fouls at 75.3% also hit, and Over 8.5 corners at 75.1% hit, whereas Under 4.5 cards at 74.5% missed. The match delivered more goals than the expected 3.0, with the most likely score of 1-1 at 11.3%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maribor win✓ Hit
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura win✗ Miss
56.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.30
0.64
1.55
1.58
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.07
0.29
1.00
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
1.75
1.25
2.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.74
1.16
1.90
1.20
1.56
1.11
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
1.83
1.75
1.50
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (13)
1.77
0.85
2.00
1.00
1.57
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
32% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.4%
0-1
8.7%
1-3
6.4%
0-3
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
2-1
5.4%
Maribor goals ↓
Mura goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
8.7%
9.4%
6.1%
2.9%
1
4.3%
11%
9.9%
6.4%
3.1%
2
2.8%
5.4%
5.2%
3.4%
1.6%
3
1.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Maribor is 0.28 points better than Mura in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Maribor is 0.56 goals better than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Maribor is 0.06 goals better than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Maribor is 1.5 percentage points better than Mura in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maribor
For 4.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mura
For 6.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
8.7
10.2
7.2
1.8
1.4
2.2
26.2
23.5
29.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.4
9.8
7.0
2.3
2.0
2.5
27.5
31.0
24.0
vs Weaker (8)
10.0
12.0
8.0
0.9
0.2
1.5
25.0
16.0
34.0
% over line
40%
60%
20%
22%
9%
33%
75%
50%
100%
% under line
60%
40%
80%
78%
91%
67%
25%
50%
0%
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (19)
11.2
10.5
12.0
1.5
2.2
0.8
23.2
22.5
24.0
vs Stronger (6)
9.5
-
9.5
1.2
0.0
3.5
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (13)
11.8
10.5
14.5
1.7
3.7
0.0
22.5
22.5
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
75%
75%
21%
30%
11%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
25%
25%
79%
70%
89%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.3
Gorica
10.2
Celje
9.0
Bravo
8.8
Maribor
8.7
Koper
8.6
NK Domzale
8.2
Tabor Sežana
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.5
Koper
5.0
Mura
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Celje
4.4
Maribor
4.1
Tabor Sežana
3.4
Bravo
3.2
Gorica
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.8
Bravo
27.4
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.8
Maribor
26.2
Koper
25.0
Celje
25.0
Mura
23.2
Gorica
22.4
Tabor Sežana
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.8%
Under 9.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 3.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.3%
Under 21.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.48
0.36
0.73
0.75
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.33
0.29
0.43
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.25
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
61% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.74
0.42
0.60
0.60
0.89
0.22
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.33
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
0.50
0.67
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
68% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.27
0.82
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.73
0.00
0.57
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
1.00
0.75
1.25
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.74
1.30
0.60
0.67
0.89
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.38
1.50
0.33
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Maribor's squad is €5m more valuable than Mura's (€10m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Maribor's attack is €3m more valuable than Mura's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Maribor and Mura have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Maribor and Mura have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Celje
NK Domzale
Koper
Radomlje
Bravo
Gorica
Tabor Sežana
Aluminij