Maribor’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-2 victory over Nafta give the home side a clear edge, and the model’s 70% home-win probability reflects that advantage. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely outcome with an 11.2% chance, while the expected total of 3.2 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair. Maribor’s home form shows an impressive 3.25 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Mura’s away record is 0.5 scored and 2.5 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 83.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.6% and Over 8.5 corners at 73.7%. The probabilities for the match result are 70% home win, 19% draw and 11% away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Maribor’s two-game winning run, while Mura’s form has dipped after two straight defeats. The model predicted a home win with 70% confidence, and that call proved correct as Maribor edged Mura 2-1. The favourite’s probability of 70% matched the outcome, and the 83.8% chance of the model’s selection Over 1.5 goals was hit, with the match seeing three goals in total. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 was not reached, but the 2-1 result fell within the model’s broader expectations. Overall, the predictions largely came through, confirming the model’s accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maribor win✓ Hit
70.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura win✗ Miss
11.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.90
2.69
0.69
1.43
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.05
1.05
2.50
0.83
1.44
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
2.22
0.56
3.25
0.25
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.06
1.06
1.00
1.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.86
0.75
1.38
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.06
1.38
0.75
1.38
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
1-1
9.0%
3-0
8.8%
1-0
8.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.2%
0-0
4.9%
Maribor goals ↓
Mura goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
2.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.7%
9.0%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
9.6%
4.1%
1.2%
0.2%
3
8.8%
7.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.2%
4.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.06
Maribor
1.86
Koper
1.83
Celje
1.69
Bravo
1.53
Triglav
1.50
Primorje
1.19
Radomlje
0.97
Mura
0.97
NK Domzale
0.84
Nafta
0.78
Maribor is 0.89 points better than Mura in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.11
Triglav
2.00
Maribor
1.78
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.75
Koper
1.67
Bravo
1.44
Primorje
1.14
NK Domzale
1.05
Radomlje
1.03
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.92
Maribor is 0.75 goals better than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.56
Maribor
0.89
Koper
0.97
Bravo
1.22
Celje
1.42
Mura
1.42
Primorje
1.69
NK Domzale
1.84
Nafta
1.92
Radomlje
1.92
Triglav
2.50
Maribor is 0.53 goals better than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maribor
For 3.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mura
For 5.1 · Against 7.1 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.0
9.2
2.8
3.0
2.5
25.1
25.5
24.6
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
9.0
14.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.5
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (35)
8.6
8.3
9.0
3.2
3.6
2.8
27.5
27.2
27.9
vs Weaker (13)
9.7
11.3
8.0
1.5
1.4
1.5
20.5
21.0
20.0
% over line
38%
43%
33%
42%
41%
43%
67%
62%
73%
% under line
62%
57%
67%
58%
59%
57%
33%
38%
27%
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
10.5
13.1
2.3
2.3
2.2
23.4
24.2
22.6
vs Stronger (22)
11.7
10.1
13.7
2.4
2.6
2.2
21.8
21.8
21.7
vs Similar (28)
11.8
11.2
12.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
25.5
27.8
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
72%
67%
79%
30%
35%
25%
66%
80%
50%
% under line
28%
33%
21%
70%
65%
75%
34%
20%
50%
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Celje
9.9
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.1
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.3%
Under 9.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.1%
Under 3.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.0%
Under 21.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.33
1.24
0.12
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.36
1.15
0.15
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.53
0.40
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.69
0.71
0.29
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.38
0.50
0.67
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.41
0.59
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.68
1.31
0.69
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
1.75
0.25
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.60
0.60
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.15
0.14
1.00
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.65
1.00
0.25
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Maribor's squad is €5m more valuable than Mura's (€10m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Maribor's attack is €3m more valuable than Mura's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor and Mura have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Maribor and Mura have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Primorje
Radomlje
NK Domzale
Nafta
Triglav