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Maribor vs NK Domzale Result & Analysis

Date: 22/04/2023
Time: 18:15
Final 1-0
Maribor
Maribor
Vs
38%
28%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win✓ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D20W12L11D32W11D30W31W02LH·OLI19/02A·NK 23/02H·CEL26/02A·MUR05/03H·TAB11/03A·BRA15/03A·RAD18/03A·GOR01/04H·KOP08/04A·OLI16/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.002.230.921.761.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.330.931.710.571.001.25
vs Weaker (15)2.601.072.831.332.440.89
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D20W00D41W12L01L00D11D22DA·BRA19/02H·MAR23/02A·GOR26/02H·KOP04/03A·OLI12/03H·RAD15/03A·CEL18/03H·MUR02/04A·TAB08/04H·BRA15/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.201.331.471.600.93
vs Stronger (12)1.421.421.001.501.831.33
vs Similar (18)1.501.061.561.441.440.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
1-0 ✓
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Maribor goals ↓
NK Domzale goals →
01234
07.3%7.1%5.6%2.5%0.8%
17.7%13%8.0%3.6%1.2%
26.4%8.6%5.8%2.6%0.9%
33.1%4.2%2.8%1.3%0.4%
41.1%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = NK Domzale goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Maribor is 0.28 points better than NK Domzale in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Maribor is 0.56 goals better than NK Domzale in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Maribor is 0.03 goals worse than NK Domzale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Maribor is 4.0 percentage points better than NK Domzale in terms of average possession (51% vs 47%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

For 4.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

16044441511379456234928806141698711A·OLIH·KOPA·GORA·BRAH·TABA·MURH·CELA·NK H·OLIA·KOP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

9032111232245221463215235294593A·OLIH·KOPA·GORA·BRAH·TABA·MURH·CELA·NK H·OLIA·KOP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.5

⚠️ Fouls

36071012151818121119111281014191471613917273623302024332322A·OLIH·KOPA·BRAH·TABA·MURH·CELA·NK H·OLIA·KOPH·GOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

For 3.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.8

🚩 Corners

1504632322629411326341051055811548715H·BRAA·TABH·MURA·CELA·OLIH·KOPA·GORH·MARA·BRAH·TAB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

80421262112322214112316382543534H·BRAA·TABH·MURA·CELA·OLIH·KOPA·GORH·MARA·BRAH·TAB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.9

⚠️ Fouls

40018131319141912141591714161014102515101231323326243126244022H·BRAA·TABH·MURA·CELA·OLIH·KOPA·GORH·MARA·BRAH·TAB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (39)8.69.77.52.62.33.025.524.226.9
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (22)8.38.97.62.92.83.025.926.625.0
vs Weaker (17)9.111.27.42.21.52.925.021.228.8
% over line33%42%25%31%21%40%82%78%88%
% under line67%58%75%69%79%60%18%22%12%
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (31)7.98.47.33.03.72.328.128.427.8
vs Stronger (13)7.67.57.73.65.02.028.429.227.0
vs Similar (18)8.29.87.22.62.72.427.827.228.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line21%20%22%45%62%27%95%100%89%
% under line79%80%78%55%38%73%5%0%11%
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.0
Celje
9.9
Gorica
9.2
Tabor Sežana
9.2
Koper
9.0
Maribor
8.6
Bravo
8.3
NK Domzale
7.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
4.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.6
Celje
4.3
Maribor
4.2
Bravo
3.9
Koper
3.9
Gorica
3.7
Tabor Sežana
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bravo
28.4
NK Domzale
28.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
27.5
Mura
26.4
Gorica
25.6
Maribor
25.5
Celje
25.1
Koper
23.4
Tabor Sežana
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.6%
Under 9.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.5%
Under 3.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.5%
Under 21.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L20W12L00D30W11D10W10W01LH·OLI19/02A·NK 23/02H·CEL26/02A·MUR05/03H·TAB11/03A·BRA15/03A·RAD18/03A·GOR01/04H·KOP08/04A·OLI16/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.431.380.461.000.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.000.271.430.290.620.25
vs Weaker (15)1.330.601.330.671.330.56
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W00D30W01L00D00D11D01LA·BRA19/02H·MAR23/02A·GOR26/02H·KOP04/03A·OLI12/03H·RAD15/03A·CEL18/03H·MUR02/04A·TAB08/04H·BRA15/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.300.400.401.130.20
vs Stronger (12)0.830.170.330.171.330.17
vs Similar (18)0.720.390.440.561.000.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D11D02L00D20W21W01LH·OLI19/02A·NK 23/02H·CEL26/02A·MUR05/03H·TAB11/03A·BRA15/03A·RAD18/03A·GOR01/04H·KOP08/04A·OLI16/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.570.850.460.760.65
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.330.670.290.290.381.00
vs Weaker (15)1.270.471.500.671.110.33
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W00D11D11D01L00D00D21WA·BRA19/02H·MAR23/02A·GOR26/02H·KOP04/03A·OLI12/03H·RAD15/03A·CEL18/03H·MUR02/04A·TAB08/04H·BRA15/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.931.070.470.73
vs Stronger (12)0.581.250.671.330.501.17
vs Similar (18)0.780.671.110.890.440.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls93.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls85.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners81.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards80.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.578.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls74.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards73.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners72.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
MAR wins
1
Draws
2
ND wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maribor vs NK Domzale · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/23ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-1
22/10/22HMAR Vs NK Domzale0-3
14/08/22ANK Domzale Vs MAR3-2

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR2-0
08/04/23HMAR Vs Koper3-1
01/04/23AGorica Vs MAR0-3
18/03/23ARadomlje Vs MAR1-1
15/03/23ABravo Vs MAR2-3
11/03/23HMAR Vs Tabor Sežana1-1
05/03/23AMura Vs MAR2-1
26/02/23HMAR Vs Celje2-0
23/02/23ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-1
19/02/23HMAR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-0

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23HND Vs Bravo2-2
08/04/23ATabor Sežana Vs ND1-1
02/04/23HND Vs Mura0-0
18/03/23ACelje Vs ND1-0
15/03/23HND Vs Radomlje1-2
12/03/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs ND1-4
04/03/23HND Vs Koper0-0
26/02/23AGorica Vs ND0-2
23/02/23HND Vs Maribor1-1
19/02/23ABravo Vs ND0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.54
HomeWWWDW1.58
AwayLWDWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%42%45%
AVG goals2.742.792.70
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %49%53%45%
Over 3.5 %31%32%30%
Scored1.671.681.65
Conceded1.081.111.05
BTTS38%37%40%
Clean Sheet36%37%35%
Corners8.589.677.50
Cards4.253.584.92
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDD1.45
HomeDDLDD1.25
AwayWWWLD1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%25%47%
AVG goals2.582.622.53
Over 1.5 %74%75%73%
Over 2.5 %45%56%33%
Over 3.5 %29%38%20%
Scored1.421.251.60
Conceded1.161.380.93
BTTS52%56%47%
Clean Sheet35%25%47%
Corners7.898.407.33
Cards4.895.903.78

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3673
64%
2.0
6039+21
2.8
67%
44%
25%
9.1
43%
4.4
57%
27.5
87%
12
6151.71.1
59%
2CeljeCelje3667
53%
1.9
5334+19
2.4
69%
42%
19%
9.7
43%
4.2
61%
24.6
78%
14
7161.50.9
49%
3MariborMaribor3662
50%
1.7
7043+27
3.1
83%
58%
39%
8.9
35%
4.3
52%
25.0
73%
10
5231.91.2
51%
4NK DomzaleNK Domzale3652
36%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
72%
44%
28%
7.7
17%
5.1
78%
28.1
91%
0
0001.41.2
47%
5MuraMura3652
36%
1.4
5045+5
2.6
69%
53%
31%
10.6
57%
4.5
61%
26.3
91%
5
2121.41.2
50%
6KoperKoper3650
39%
1.4
4640+6
2.4
69%
42%
19%
9.1
52%
3.8
52%
24.0
78%
8
3231.31.1
52%
7RadomljeRadomlje3644
28%
1.2
3553-18
2.4
78%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.5
-
8BravoBravo3636
25%
1.0
3341-8
2.1
58%
31%
14%
8.7
35%
3.9
57%
27.5
83%
4
1120.91.1
50%
9GoricaGorica3828
13%
0.7
3361-28
2.5
74%
37%
24%
9.4
52%
4.1
56%
26.2
79%
0
0000.91.6
47%
10Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3624
8%
0.7
2963-34
2.6
72%
44%
31%
9.3
38%
3.2
33%
22.2
67%
2
1110.81.8
47%
11AluminijAluminij24
50%
2.0
42+2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
10.5
50%
6.0
100%
33.5
100%
4
2122.01.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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