Maribor’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-2 victory over Nafta suggest a sharp attack, while Radomlje’s 1.25 goals per game away and 2.25 conceded hint at defensive frailty. The model predicts a home win at 53%, a draw at 24%, and an away win also at 24%, making a Maribor victory the favourite. With an expected 3.3 goals, the average total is 3, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% chance. Maribor averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded at home against weaker sides; Radomlje averages 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded away against stronger opponents. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 87.1%, Over 1.5 at 84.8% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 83.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.0%, and Over 2.5 cards at 71.2%. All figures are presented as percentages, with no additional commentary.
Results analysis
The latest match saw Maribor extend a two-game winning run, while Radomlje returned from a draw. The final score was 7-0, a decisive home win that matched the model’s prediction. The favourite, Home win, came with a 53% probability and the model’s call was correct. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5, with an 84.8% probability, and it hit. No other selections were made. The result confirms the model’s accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maribor win✓ Hit
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radomlje win✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
1.19
1.15
1.38
1.77
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.00
0.62
0.88
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
2.60
1.50
2.00
2.20
3.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.78
0.67
1.56
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
2.25
0.75
2.25
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.40
0.60
1.00
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
6.5%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
3-0
4.9%
Maribor goals ↓
Radomlje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
1
6.5%
11%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.6%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.9%
6.4%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Radomlje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Maribor is 0.50 points better than Radomlje in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Maribor is 0.97 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Maribor is 0.28 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maribor
For 4.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Radomlje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
8.5
10.0
6.8
2.0
1.8
2.2
25.4
23.2
28.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
8.3
9.4
7.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
25.7
26.5
24.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.0
11.5
6.5
1.6
1.4
1.8
25.2
20.0
30.5
% over line
38%
57%
17%
23%
15%
31%
86%
75%
100%
% under line
62%
43%
83%
77%
85%
69%
14%
25%
0%
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.5
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.4
Celje
9.4
Gorica
9.3
Koper
8.8
Bravo
8.7
Maribor
8.5
NK Domzale
8.3
Tabor Sežana
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.6
Koper
4.6
Mura
4.6
Celje
4.1
Maribor
4.0
Gorica
3.7
Tabor Sežana
3.6
Bravo
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
28.3
Olimpija Ljubljana
27.9
Maribor
25.4
Bravo
25.3
Celje
25.3
Koper
25.0
Mura
24.7
Gorica
22.6
Tabor Sežana
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.2%
Under 9.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.0%
Under 21.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
0.46
0.77
0.69
0.92
0.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.31
0.62
0.38
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.70
1.00
1.20
1.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
62% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.56
0.67
0.78
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.20
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.73
0.38
0.69
0.85
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.69
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
42% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.11
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.22
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.20
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Maribor's squad is €4m more valuable than Radomlje's (€10m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Maribor's attack is €3m more valuable than Radomlje's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Maribor and Radomlje have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Maribor and Radomlje have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Celje
NK Domzale
Mura
Koper
Bravo
Gorica
Tabor Sežana
Aluminij