This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.83
2.00
1.71
1.69
1.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
3.50
2.00
1.50
0.00
5.50
vs Similar (25)
1.96
1.60
2.00
1.82
1.93
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-2 ✓
6.1%
1-3
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
Mariehamn goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
7.2%
7.5%
4.6%
2.1%
1
4.7%
12%
9.6%
5.8%
2.7%
2
3.7%
6.7%
6.1%
3.7%
1.7%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mariehamn goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Mariehamn is 0.50 points worse than Ilves in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Mariehamn is 0.77 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Mariehamn is 0.27 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Mariehamn is 4.8 percentage points worse than Ilves in terms of average possession (45% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mariehamn
For 3.0 · Against 6.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 10.3 · Total 18.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
For 5.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.8 · Against 10.4 · Total 18.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.0
9.4
0.9
1.3
0.5
19.8
20.8
18.2
vs Stronger (24)
11.0
10.5
11.5
0.6
0.7
0.5
23.5
25.5
21.5
vs Similar (26)
10.1
11.2
8.0
1.1
2.0
0.5
18.1
19.2
16.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
75%
60%
12%
22%
4%
46%
50%
40%
% under line
31%
25%
40%
88%
78%
96%
54%
50%
60%
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
11.9
12.0
1.2
1.1
1.3
18.9
17.4
20.1
vs Stronger (6)
11.5
13.0
10.0
1.5
1.3
1.7
19.5
15.0
24.0
vs Similar (40)
12.0
11.7
12.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
18.8
17.8
19.6
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
57%
100%
16%
12%
20%
40%
43%
38%
% under line
20%
43%
0%
84%
88%
80%
60%
57%
62%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.6
Turku PS
12.5
FF Jaro
10.9
SJK
10.7
Ilves
10.6
Mariehamn
10.5
HJK Helsinki
10.2
Inter Turku
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
VPS
10.0
Lahti
9.9
KuPS
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.0
Lahti
4.8
Mariehamn
4.2
Inter Turku
4.1
SJK
4.0
AC Oulu
4.0
Gnistan
3.9
Ilves
3.9
KuPS
3.7
FF Jaro
3.7
VPS
3.6
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
31.0
Ilves
24.1
SJK
24.0
Lahti
23.5
Inter Turku
23.5
Mariehamn
23.2
KuPS
22.4
VPS
22.3
AC Oulu
22.2
HJK Helsinki
20.7
Gnistan
20.6
FF Jaro
18.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
67.6%
Under 9.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
35.2%
Under 21.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.75
0.88
0.38
0.12
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
0.17
0.50
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.44
0.73
0.55
0.71
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.30
0.93
1.36
0.94
1.25
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
1.69
0.62
1.75
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.86
1.33
0.83
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.29
1.21
1.06
1.25
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.16
1.27
1.27
1.21
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mariehamn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Dahlström33%
A. Larsson29%
M. Hyvönen17%
Anttoni Huttunen14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
Tuomas Koivisto0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian Dahlström33%
Pontus Lindgren33%
E. Patut30%
J. Nissinen29%
A. Soiniemi25%
Luke Pearce20%
Nikolaos Dosis17%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
Noah Nurmi11%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
M. Hyvönen0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yeboah Amankwah20%
Luke Pearce20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Larsson29%
E. Patut20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Hytönen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Hytönen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Mariehamn's squad is €2m less valuable than Ilves's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Mariehamn and Ilves have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Mariehamn and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Mariehamn's defence is €1m less valuable than Ilves's (€1m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
SJK
FF Jaro