Maritimo vs Benfica Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity dominates the outlook for Marítimo versus Benfica, with Marítimo’s home form against stronger opposition showing 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Benfica’s away form against weaker opponents yields 1.0 goals scored and 0.62 conceded. The model favours an away win, with a 46% chance for Benfica, 33% for a draw and 21% for a Marítimo victory. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a tight, low-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for Benfica, with a 16.7% probability. The most likely total of two goals carries a 28% probability. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 98.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.6%, Over 23.5 fouls at 90.4%, Under 3.5 goals at 87.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.6%, Over 25.5 fouls at 82.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.7% and Under 2.5 goals at 71.1%. Benfica’s recent four-game winning streak contrasts with Marítimo’s recent defeat, setting the stage for a cautious, defensive contest.

The draw shocked fans, as the pre-match favourite - Benfica - failed to secure the win the model had predicted with a 46% probability. The final score of 1-1 confirmed a draw, a result that the model’s pick was wrong. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore missed. The model also suggested several other outcomes. Over 19.5 fouls hit at 98.3%, over 21.5 fouls at 95.6%, over 23.5 fouls at 90.4%, under 3.5 at 87.9%, over 2.5 cards at 82.6%, over 25.5 fouls at 82.0%, over 8.5 corners at 73.7% and under 2.5 at 71.1% - all of which were hit. The match saw Marítimo’s recent form dip after a defeat, while Benfica continued a four-game winning streak.