Marítimo are the clear favourites, with a 55% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and only a 20% chance of Moreirense winning. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability. Marítimo, playing at home against a team of similar strength, average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Moreirense, away against a similar opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (77.1%), Over 2.5 cards (89.7%), Over 3.5 cards (77.3%), Over 19.5 fouls (99.2%), Over 21.5 fouls (97.6%), Over 23.5 fouls (94.4%), Over 25.5 fouls (88.6%), and Under 11.5 corners (73.6%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
A surprising 1-1 draw saw Marítimo fail to convert the pre-match favourite, the model’s home-win call proved wrong. The match finished in a stalemate, extending both sides’ recent form narratives: Marítimo, after a defeat, and Moreirense, buoyed by a win. The model had assigned a 55% probability to a home victory, but the result was a draw. The model’s selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.6%, Over 23.5 fouls at 94.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 89.7%, Over 25.5 fouls at 88.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 77.3%, Over 1.5 at 77.1%, and Under 11.5 corners at 73.6%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and every pick was accounted for.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maritimo win✗ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moreirense win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maritimo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.50
0.86
0.69
1.75
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.57
1.67
1.00
0.50
3.75
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.00
1.40
0.80
0.82
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.47
1.00
1.06
0.93
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.80
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.67
1.00
1.60
2.00
1.75
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
1.31
1.17
0.67
0.71
1.86
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.2%
1-0
10.2%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.5%
Maritimo goals ↓
Moreirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
5.2%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
1
10%
12%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.8%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.8%
5.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.5%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritimo goals (down), columns = Moreirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Maritimo is 0.44 points better than Moreirense in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Maritimo is 0.21 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Maritimo is 0.03 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maritimo
For 5.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
For 6.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 6.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.5
9.9
2.8
2.6
3.0
32.2
34.4
30.1
vs Stronger (13)
9.9
8.3
11.0
2.2
2.4
2.1
32.9
38.3
28.8
vs Similar (35)
8.9
8.4
9.4
2.8
2.5
3.2
32.0
33.7
30.3
vs Weaker (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
31.5
30.0
33.0
% over line
41%
29%
53%
42%
44%
40%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
59%
71%
47%
58%
56%
60%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
9.9
3.2
3.3
3.0
31.7
33.9
29.3
vs Stronger (13)
12.0
10.0
14.7
2.7
2.4
3.2
30.6
34.5
25.3
vs Similar (17)
8.9
9.6
8.0
2.8
3.1
2.6
26.3
29.8
22.0
vs Weaker (20)
10.5
12.5
8.9
3.8
4.1
3.4
35.9
36.8
35.1
% over line
55%
67%
43%
44%
46%
42%
93%
100%
86%
% under line
45%
33%
57%
56%
54%
58%
7%
0%
14%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Feirense
11.5
Benfica
11.5
Sporting CP
11.4
Chaves
11.3
Pacos Ferreira
11.3
Estoril
10.8
FC Porto
10.7
Guimaraes
10.5
Moreirense
10.4
Boavista
10.4
Tondela
10.3
SC Braga
10.2
Belenenses
9.6
Aves
9.5
Setubal
9.3
Portimonense
9.3
Maritimo
9.2
Rio Ave
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Feirense
5.9
Rio Ave
5.5
Moreirense
5.4
Pacos Ferreira
5.4
Boavista
5.1
Estoril
5.0
Setubal
5.0
Tondela
4.9
FC Porto
4.9
Maritimo
4.8
Sporting CP
4.7
SC Braga
4.7
Guimaraes
4.7
Portimonense
4.6
Belenenses
4.6
Aves
4.6
Chaves
4.3
Benfica
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
35.7
Setubal
35.6
Rio Ave
33.7
Estoril
32.8
Belenenses
32.6
SC Braga
32.5
Guimaraes
32.3
Maritimo
32.2
Aves
31.9
Moreirense
31.7
Boavista
31.6
Sporting CP
31.5
Tondela
31.5
Portimonense
31.4
FC Porto
31.1
Pacos Ferreira
30.6
Chaves
30.4
Benfica
28.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.8%
Under 9.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
77.3%
Under 3.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.6%
Under 21.5
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.64
0.43
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.43
1.00
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.48
0.40
0.40
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.69
0.38
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.50
0.60
0.20
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (13)
0.46
0.69
0.50
0.33
0.43
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.52
1.00
0.40
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.31
0.69
0.43
1.14
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.22
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.46
0.62
0.67
0.33
0.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
Maritimo's squad is €6m less valuable than Moreirense's (€16m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Maritimo's attack is €2m more valuable than Moreirense's (€7m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Maritimo's midfield is €6m less valuable than Moreirense's (€3m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Maritimo's defence is €3m less valuable than Moreirense's (€6m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Chaves
Boavista
Guimaraes
Portimonense
Tondela
Belenenses
Feirense
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril