This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.17
1.73
0.93
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.50
-
-
1.75
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.12
1.73
0.93
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.7%
1-0
9.7%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.8%
Maritimo goals ↓
Nacional goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
8.6%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.7%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.2%
8.4%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritimo goals (down), columns = Nacional goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
Maritimo is 0.21 points worse than Nacional in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
Maritimo is 0.41 goals worse than Nacional in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
Maritimo is 0.18 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
Maritimo is 1.5 percentage points better than Nacional in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maritimo
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 14.9 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
For 4.3 · Against 7.3 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.3 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.3
8.8
1.5
1.4
1.5
28.8
28.3
29.3
vs Stronger (12)
11.0
-
11.0
1.1
0.0
2.2
26.0
-
26.0
vs Similar (36)
10.1
12.0
7.8
1.5
1.7
1.4
29.3
28.0
31.0
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
8.0
-
3.0
6.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
-
% over line
58%
67%
50%
24%
24%
24%
83%
83%
83%
% under line
42%
33%
50%
76%
76%
76%
17%
17%
17%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.4
12.1
12.7
4.2
4.4
4.1
27.6
28.6
26.7
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
8.0
11.2
6.2
5.0
6.8
27.5
33.0
24.8
vs Similar (43)
12.9
12.6
13.1
4.1
4.3
3.8
27.6
28.0
27.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
81%
72%
89%
68%
72%
64%
81%
89%
74%
% under line
19%
28%
11%
32%
28%
36%
19%
11%
26%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AVS
13.2
Nacional
11.9
Vilaverdense
11.1
Academico Viseu
11.0
Leixoes
10.9
Feirense
10.9
Oliveirense
10.6
Penafiel
10.5
FC Porto B
10.5
Mafra
10.3
Benfica B
10.3
CF Os Belenenses
10.2
Pacos Ferreira
10.1
Tondela
10.0
União de Leiria
9.6
Maritimo
9.3
Santa Clara
9.1
Torreense
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Oliveirense
6.6
Maritimo
6.5
Santa Clara
6.4
Pacos Ferreira
6.1
Leixoes
6.1
Tondela
5.9
Benfica B
5.8
FC Porto B
5.8
Nacional
5.7
Torreense
5.6
Academico Viseu
5.6
AVS
5.6
Penafiel
5.5
Mafra
5.3
União de Leiria
5.1
Feirense
5.0
Vilaverdense
4.7
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
33.0
Pacos Ferreira
32.2
Penafiel
31.0
Oliveirense
30.7
Santa Clara
30.4
Feirense
30.0
Vilaverdense
29.1
Leixoes
29.0
Nacional
28.7
Tondela
28.4
Torreense
27.9
União de Leiria
27.2
Mafra
26.8
Benfica B
26.0
AVS
26.0
Academico Viseu
25.8
FC Porto B
25.7
CF Os Belenenses
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
70.8%
Under 9.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.9%
Under 3.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.2%
Under 21.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.73
0.75
0.58
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
-
-
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.52
0.87
0.40
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.93
0.67
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.83
0.58
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.60
0.87
0.53
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Nacional · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
SC (28)
€27m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
AVS (20)
€7m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Maritimo's squad is €4m less valuable than Nacional's (€16m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
SC (11)
€9m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
UDL (9)
€4m
AVS (8)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Maritimo and Nacional have a similar attack value (both €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Maritimo's midfield is €2m less valuable than Nacional's (€3m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
SC (12)
€12m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Maritimo's defence is €2m less valuable than Nacional's (€6m vs €9m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Santa Clara
AVS
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Mafra
Academico Viseu
União de Leiria
Penafiel
Leixoes
Feirense
Oliveirense
Vilaverdense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa