This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.00
1.25
0.79
1.64
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
1.58
0.80
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.18
1.33
0.83
1.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.9%
Under 1.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.5%
@ 2.24-6.6%
Under 2.5
64.5%
@ 1.63+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.5%
Under 3.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.4%
0-1
11.4%
1-0
11.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
7.1%
0-2
6.8%
2-0 ✓
6.7%
Maritimo goals ↓
Pacos Ferreira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.5%
0.7%
2
6.7%
7.1%
3.8%
1.3%
0.4%
3
2.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritimo goals (down), columns = Pacos Ferreira goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.68
Sporting CP
2.50
Benfica
2.18
SC Braga
1.91
GIL Vicente
1.50
Guimaraes
1.41
Santa Clara
1.18
Famalicao
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Portimonense
1.12
Maritimo
1.12
Boavista
1.12
Pacos Ferreira
1.12
Vizela
0.97
Arouca
0.91
Moreirense
0.85
Tondela
0.82
Belenenses
0.76
Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira are level in average points per game (both 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.53
Benfica
2.29
Sporting CP
2.15
SC Braga
1.53
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Santa Clara
1.12
Vizela
1.09
Estoril
1.06
Moreirense
0.97
Portimonense
0.91
Arouca
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.85
Belenenses
0.68
Maritimo is 0.29 goals better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Sporting CP
0.68
Benfica
0.88
SC Braga
0.91
Guimaraes
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Estoril
1.26
Maritimo
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Moreirense
1.50
Boavista
1.53
Santa Clara
1.59
Arouca
1.59
Belenenses
1.62
Vizela
1.71
Tondela
1.97
Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maritimo
For 3.4 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.7 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.0 · Against 19.9 · Total 38.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pacos Ferreira
For 5.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 14.6 · Total 29.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.7
6.3
6.1
6.5
36.2
36.6
35.9
vs Stronger (19)
8.2
8.1
8.3
5.8
5.9
5.7
35.3
35.1
35.5
vs Similar (31)
9.3
9.7
8.9
6.6
6.2
7.0
36.8
37.5
36.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
33%
38%
84%
83%
85%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
64%
67%
62%
16%
17%
15%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.8
4.6
4.2
5.1
31.8
31.0
32.7
vs Stronger (32)
9.9
9.9
9.9
4.7
4.1
5.3
32.2
30.3
34.3
vs Similar (18)
8.6
7.1
9.7
4.6
4.5
4.7
31.2
32.5
30.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
36%
52%
66%
56%
76%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
56%
64%
48%
34%
44%
24%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Vizela
11.2
Estoril
10.3
GIL Vicente
10.3
Guimaraes
10.2
Santa Clara
10.0
Belenenses
9.9
Benfica
9.8
Boavista
9.8
Portimonense
9.7
Sporting CP
9.6
Tondela
9.5
Moreirense
9.5
SC Braga
9.5
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
Arouca
9.4
Famalicao
9.3
FC Porto
9.2
Maritimo
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
7.1
Famalicao
6.5
Maritimo
6.3
Vizela
6.1
Sporting CP
6.1
Tondela
5.7
Moreirense
5.6
FC Porto
5.5
Boavista
5.5
Estoril
5.4
Santa Clara
5.3
GIL Vicente
5.3
Belenenses
5.2
Portimonense
5.1
SC Braga
5.0
Pacos Ferreira
4.6
Guimaraes
4.6
Benfica
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
36.2
Santa Clara
32.7
Sporting CP
32.6
Boavista
32.4
Famalicao
32.2
Estoril
32.2
Pacos Ferreira
31.8
FC Porto
31.6
Arouca
31.6
Portimonense
31.6
Guimaraes
31.4
Tondela
30.3
Moreirense
30.3
Belenenses
30.3
GIL Vicente
29.5
SC Braga
29.3
Benfica
28.9
Vizela
28.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.8%
Under 9.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.3%
Under 3.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.8%
Under 21.5
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
0.69
0.29
0.71
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.62
0.50
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.69
0.44
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
0.58
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.56
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
1.00
0.17
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.13
0.73
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.92
0.14
0.86
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.53
0.12
0.62
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.83
0.31
0.81
0.21
0.86
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
1.00
0.30
0.90
0.11
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.55
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Pacos Ferreira · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Costinha50%
Joao Victor25%
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Nuno Cunha9%
Miguel Mota8%
Francisco Ramos0%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fernandinho Conceição67%
Gonçalo Cardoso50%
Kauan50%
Costinha50%
Miguel Falé33%
Iuri Moreira33%
Miguel Mota25%
Fernando Gomes25%
Diegão20%
Anilson20%
Rafael Vieira18%
Ronaldo Lumungo18%
Nuno Cunha18%
Leandro Dias17%
Tiago Ferreira10%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Andre Sousa0%
João Pinto0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Andre Sousa10%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel Falé50%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Anilson0%
Ronaldo Lumungo0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Maritimo's squad is €14m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€16m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Maritimo's attack is €6m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€7m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
VIZ (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Maritimo's midfield is €2m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Maritimo's defence is €5m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€6m vs €1m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
Famalicao
Estoril
Boavista
Portimonense
Vizela
Arouca
Moreirense
Tondela
Belenenses