Defensive solidity will dominate the scene, with Marko averaging just one goal conceded at home and Ellas Syros conceding two on the road. The model favours a home win, giving Marko a 43% chance, a draw 33%, and Ellas 23%. The expected total is 1.9 goals, so a tight 2-goal match is the most likely total. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.6% probability, reflecting the low-scoring nature of both sides. Marko’s home form shows 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Ellas Syros averages 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded away. The model’s only selection is Under 3.5, with an 86.7% probability. Both teams have just come off draws, adding to the expectation of a low-scoring affair.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Marko, fell short as the match finished 1-1, a draw that keeps both sides level after recent draws. The model had picked a home win with a 43% probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its target with an 86.7% probability, confirming the low-scoring nature of the game. Marko’s home form has been mixed, coming off a draw, while Ellas Syros also finished their last match with a draw. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely 2-goal outcome, though the draw itself was not predicted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marko win✗ Miss
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ellas Syros win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marko
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.86
1.33
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.83
1.33
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ellas Syros) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ellas Syros
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.71
1.00
2.25
0.25
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.2%
Under 1.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.9%
Under 2.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.3%
Under 3.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.6%
No
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.6%
1-0
15.3%
1-1 ✓
14.3%
0-1
9.9%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.4%
Marko goals ↓
Ellas Syros goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
9.9%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
9.7%
7.6%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
3
3.8%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.1%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marko goals (down), columns = Ellas Syros goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalamata
2.64
Iraklis 1908
2.40
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Egaleo
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Kavala
1.25
Kissamikos
0.89
Kampaniakos Chalastra
0.82
PAS Giannina
0.75
Ilioupoli
0.71
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.50
Panargiakos
0.36
Marko is 0.06 points better than Ellas Syros in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kalamata
2.08
Niki Volos
1.92
Iraklis 1908
1.72
PAOK II
1.57
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Kavala
1.07
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Egaleo
0.96
Kampaniakos Chalastra
0.89
PAS Giannina
0.86
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.68
Kissamikos
0.64
Ilioupoli
0.64
Panargiakos
0.50
Marko is 0.30 goals worse than Ellas Syros in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalamata
0.48
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Iraklis 1908
0.60
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Egaleo
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Kissamikos
1.29
Kavala
1.32
PAS Giannina
1.46
Ilioupoli
1.54
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
Panargiakos
1.86
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.86
Makedonikos Neapolis
2.14
Marko is 0.15 goals better than Ellas Syros in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marko
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ellas Syros) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ellas Syros
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.86
1.50
0.25
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marko over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ellas Syros over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ellas Syros over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ellas Syros over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marko
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ellas Syros) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ellas Syros
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.14
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
86% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marko over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ellas Syros over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ellas Syros over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ellas Syros over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (28)
€11m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ILI (31)
€4m
PG (36)
€4m
ATI (23)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
KAV (28)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
PAN (32)
€2m
Marko's squad is €2m more valuable than Ellas Syros's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (8)
€4m
PAN (13)
€3m
EGA (19)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
KAV (12)
€1m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
ATI (6)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
PAN (12)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
Marko and Ellas Syros have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
I1 (7)
€3m
KAL (6)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
ATI (7)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
PG (7)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
PAN (7)
€0m
KAV (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Marko and Ellas Syros have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
KAL (14)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
ATI (10)
€1m
KAV (12)
€1m
MN (15)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
PAN (13)
€1m
Marko and Ellas Syros have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Greece: Super League 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →