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Marsa vs Zurrieq Result & Analysis

Date: 07/01/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 1-2
Marsa
Marsa
Vs
49%
24%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zurrieq
Zurrieq
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marsa win✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W00D33D21W30W60W20W33D13L02LH·SEN24/09A·SWI01/10H·MEL21/10A·FGU24/10H·LIJ28/10A·ATT04/11H·ZEB25/11A·TAR03/12H·PIE10/12A·MSI16/12
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.471.641.501.691.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)2.111.681.782.002.401.40
vs Weaker (11)0.911.091.400.600.501.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZurrieqZurrieq

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W10W02L14L04L11D32W10W00DH·ZEJ23/09A·SEN01/10H·SWI21/10A·MEL24/10H·FGU28/10A·LIJ03/11H·ATT26/11A·ST.02/12H·LUQ09/12H·ZAB16/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.001.501.811.142.21
vs Stronger (28)1.212.001.531.670.852.38
vs Similar (2)3.002.001.004.005.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.7%
Under 2.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 3.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.3%
No
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.2%
1-2 ✓
6.8%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
0-0
4.3%
Marsa goals ↓
Zurrieq goals →
01234
04.3%3.9%3.5%1.7%0.6%
15.7%10%6.8%3.3%1.2%
26.4%9.2%6.6%3.2%1.1%
34.2%6.0%4.3%2.1%0.7%
42.0%2.9%2.1%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsa goals (down), columns = Zurrieq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Melita
2.36
Zabbar St. Patrick
2.04
Marsa
1.60
Swieqi United
1.58
Fgura United
1.54
Pietà Hotspurs
1.52
Senglea Athletic
1.40
Zurrieq
1.40
Lija Athletic
1.33
Tarxien Rainbows
1.29
Luqa St. Andrew's
1.24
Zebbug Rangers
1.21
Zejtun Corinthians
1.12
St. Andrews
1.12
Attard
0.75
Msida St. Joseph
0.33
Marsa is 0.20 points better than Zurrieq in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Melita
2.24
Marsa
1.76
Fgura United
1.62
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.52
Zebbug Rangers
1.50
Swieqi United
1.42
Pietà Hotspurs
1.40
Luqa St. Andrew's
1.32
Lija Athletic
1.29
Tarxien Rainbows
1.25
St. Andrews
1.16
Senglea Athletic
1.12
Zurrieq
1.08
Zejtun Corinthians
0.96
Attard
0.92
Msida St. Joseph
0.67
Marsa is 0.68 goals better than Zurrieq in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.80
Tarxien Rainbows
0.92
Swieqi United
0.96
Melita
0.96
Zejtun Corinthians
1.00
Senglea Athletic
1.08
Marsa
1.20
Pietà Hotspurs
1.24
Fgura United
1.33
St. Andrews
1.40
Zebbug Rangers
1.42
Zurrieq
1.44
Luqa St. Andrew's
1.60
Lija Athletic
1.83
Attard
1.92
Msida St. Joseph
2.21
Marsa is 0.24 goals better than Zurrieq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaMarsa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D01L01L10W40W10W11D12L01LH·SEN24/09A·SWI01/10H·MEL21/10A·FGU24/10H·LIJ28/10A·ATT04/11H·ZEB25/11A·TAR03/12H·PIE10/12A·MSI16/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.620.540.760.65
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.790.790.380.881.090.73
vs Weaker (11)0.550.271.000.000.170.50
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZurrieqZurrieq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L10W01L12L02L00D11D00D00DA·ZEB16/09H·ZEJ23/09H·SWI21/10A·MEL24/10H·FGU28/10A·LIJ03/11H·ATT26/11A·ST.02/12H·LUQ09/12H·ZAB16/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.030.601.000.671.07
vs Stronger (27)0.521.040.570.930.461.15
vs Similar (3)1.671.001.002.002.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaMarsa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D32W20W20W20W10W22D01L01LH·SEN24/09A·SWI01/10H·MEL21/10A·FGU24/10H·LIJ28/10A·ATT04/11H·ZEB25/11A·TAR03/12H·PIE10/12A·MSI16/12
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.771.080.850.940.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.370.741.501.001.270.55
vs Weaker (11)0.360.820.400.600.331.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZurrieqZurrieq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W00D01L02L02L11D21W10W00DA·ZEB16/09H·ZEJ23/09H·SWI21/10A·MEL24/10H·FGU28/10A·LIJ03/11H·ATT26/11A·ST.02/12H·LUQ09/12H·ZAB16/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.100.801.000.801.20
vs Stronger (27)0.701.150.860.930.541.38
vs Similar (3)1.670.670.002.002.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (24)
€4m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (6)
€1m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (6)
€1m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (12)
€2m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MAR wins
0
Draws
1
ZUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Marsa vs Zurrieq · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22AZurrieq Vs MAR3-1

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/12/23AMsida St. Joseph Vs MAR2-0
10/12/23HMAR Vs Pietà Hotspurs1-3
03/12/23ATarxien Rainbows Vs MAR3-3
25/11/23HMAR Vs Zebbug Rangers2-0
04/11/23AAttard Vs MAR0-6
28/10/23HMAR Vs Lija Athletic3-0
24/10/23AFgura United Vs MAR1-2
21/10/23HMAR Vs Melita3-3
01/10/23ASwieqi United Vs MAR0-0
24/09/23HMAR Vs Senglea Athletic2-1

ZurrieqZurrieq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/12/23HZUR Vs Zabbar St. Patrick0-0
09/12/23HZUR Vs Luqa St. Andrew's1-0
02/12/23ASt. Andrews Vs ZUR2-3
26/11/23HZUR Vs Attard1-1
03/11/23ALija Athletic Vs ZUR4-0
28/10/23HZUR Vs Fgura United1-4
24/10/23AMelita Vs ZUR2-0
21/10/23HZUR Vs Swieqi United1-0
01/10/23ASenglea Athletic Vs ZUR0-1
23/09/23HZUR Vs Zejtun Corinthians2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.38
HomeWDWWL1.44
AwayDWWDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%39%33%
AVG goals3.003.062.95
Over 1.5 %85%94%76%
Over 2.5 %62%61%62%
Over 3.5 %38%33%43%
Scored1.591.671.52
Conceded1.411.391.43
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet31%33%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Zurrieq
Zurrieq
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.37
HomeWLDWD1.50
AwayWWLLW1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%45%39%
AVG goals3.343.203.50
Over 1.5 %79%75%83%
Over 2.5 %71%65%78%
Over 3.5 %45%40%50%
Scored1.391.401.39
Conceded1.951.802.11
BTTS53%65%39%
Clean Sheet18%20%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MelitaMelita2559
72%
2.4
5624+32
3.2
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
2Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick2551
60%
2.0
3820+18
2.3
60%
36%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
3MarsaMarsa2540
44%
1.6
4430+14
3.0
76%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
4Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2438
42%
1.6
3423+11
2.4
62%
42%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
5Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2538
44%
1.5
3531+4
2.6
68%
48%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Fgura UnitedFgura United2437
42%
1.5
3932+7
3.0
71%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
7Senglea AthleticSenglea Athletic2535
36%
1.4
2827+1
2.2
60%
32%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
8ZurrieqZurrieq2535
40%
1.4
2736-9
2.5
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
9Lija AthleticLija Athletic2432
38%
1.3
3144-13
3.1
83%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows2431
29%
1.3
3022+8
2.2
46%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.20.9
-
11Luqa St. AndrewLuqa St. Andrew's2531
32%
1.2
3340-7
2.9
72%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
12Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2429
33%
1.2
3634+2
2.9
79%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
13St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2528
28%
1.1
2935-6
2.6
68%
48%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
14Zejtun CorinthiansZejtun Corinthians2427
25%
1.1
2324-1
2.0
54%
25%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15AttardAttard2418
17%
0.8
2246-24
2.8
83%
46%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
16Msida St. JosephMsida St. Joseph248
8%
0.3
1653-37
2.9
75%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Malta: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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