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Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2024
Time: 18:15
Final 0-1
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
27%
29%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D21W11D30W10W20W01L11D12LH·MOS03/03H·BIR09/03A·HAM16/03H·GZI06/04A·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04A·HIB27/04H·BAL03/05A·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.071.331.271.600.87
vs Stronger (7)1.141.710.752.001.671.33
vs Similar (21)1.570.861.501.001.640.73
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W40W02L11D21W11D01L00D12L31WH·GUD18/02A·SIR25/02H·SLI03/03A·VAL10/03H·MOS17/03A·MAR06/04H·HAM13/04H·BIR20/04A·SAN28/04H·FLO03/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.371.131.331.601.40
vs Stronger (8)0.621.620.751.500.501.75
vs Similar (20)1.351.351.101.401.601.30
vs Weaker (2)4.500.503.000.006.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1 ✓
10.5%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
8.3%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
4.8%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
01234
09.5%10%8.3%3.9%1.4%
17.6%14%8.9%4.2%1.5%
24.8%6.8%4.8%2.3%0.8%
31.7%2.4%1.7%0.8%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Marsaxlokk is 0.16 points better than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Marsaxlokk is 0.41 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.09 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D00D01L00D00D00D01L11D00DH·MOS03/03H·BIR09/03A·HAM16/03H·GZI06/04A·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04A·HIB27/04H·BAL03/05A·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.670.600.600.40
vs Stronger (7)0.290.860.251.500.330.00
vs Similar (21)0.710.380.800.300.640.45
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W00D11D00D10W01L00D02L11DH·GUD18/02A·SIR25/02H·SLI03/03A·VAL10/03H·MOS17/03A·MAR06/04H·HAM13/04H·BIR20/04A·SAN28/04H·FLO03/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.400.400.600.67
vs Stronger (8)0.250.500.250.500.250.50
vs Similar (20)0.450.550.300.400.600.70
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D21W10W30W10W20W00D00D12LH·MOS03/03H·BIR09/03A·HAM16/03H·GZI06/04A·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04A·HIB27/04H·BAL03/05A·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.670.671.000.47
vs Stronger (7)0.860.860.500.501.331.33
vs Similar (21)0.860.480.700.701.000.27
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W02L00D21W01L00D00D10W20WH·GUD18/02A·SIR25/02H·SLI03/03A·VAL10/03H·MOS17/03A·MAR06/04H·HAM13/04H·BIR20/04A·SAN28/04H·FLO03/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.730.931.000.73
vs Stronger (8)0.381.120.501.000.251.25
vs Similar (20)0.900.800.801.001.000.60
vs Weaker (2)2.500.001.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Marsaxlokk's squad is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Gzira United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's midfield is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€2m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Marsaxlokk and Gzira United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
MAR wins
2
Draws
1
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/24HMAR Vs Gzira United1-1
03/12/23AGzira United Vs MAR2-4
22/01/23HMAR Vs Gzira United0-3
04/09/22AGzira United Vs MAR0-0

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/24HMAR Vs Partizani1-2
11/07/24APartizani Vs MAR1-1
03/05/24HMAR Vs Balzan FC0-1
27/04/24AHibernians Vs MAR0-2
20/04/24HMAR Vs Floriana1-0
12/04/24ASanta Lucía Vs MAR0-3
06/04/24HMAR Vs Gzira United1-1
16/03/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-2
09/03/24HMAR Vs Birkirkara0-0
03/03/24HMAR Vs Mosta1-2

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/24HGU Vs Floriana3-1
28/04/24ASanta Lucía Vs GU2-1
20/04/24HGU Vs Birkirkara0-0
13/04/24HGU Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
06/04/24AMarsaxlokk Vs GU1-1
17/03/24HGU Vs Mosta2-1
10/03/24AValletta FC Vs GU1-1
03/03/24HGU Vs Sliema Wanderers0-2
25/02/24ASirens Vs GU0-4
18/02/24HGU Vs Gudja United3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.36
HomeDDWLL1.00
AwayWWWWD1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%24%44%
AVG goals2.502.522.48
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %18%16%20%
Scored1.361.161.56
Conceded1.141.360.92
BTTS62%64%60%
Clean Sheet28%16%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLW1.36
HomeLWLDW1.20
AwayWWDDL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%32%44%
AVG goals2.642.562.72
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.481.241.72
Conceded1.161.321.00
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet34%28%40%
Corners8.006.0010.00
Cards5.004.505.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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