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Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 3-2
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
24%
33%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W11D21W21W00D02L21W11D11DH·TAR25/01A·BIR31/01H·SLI03/02A·ZAB07/02H·HIB15/02A·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.031.290.931.061.12
vs Stronger (11)0.821.180.801.400.831.00
vs Similar (19)1.370.951.560.671.201.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W00D40W00D10W20W11D30W12LA·VAL24/01H·SLI31/01A·GZI03/02H·NAX07/02H·ZAB13/02A·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.771.750.621.000.93
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (16)1.560.882.120.501.001.25
vs Weaker (13)1.310.541.570.571.000.50
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.8%
Under 1.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.4%
Under 2.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
14.3%
Under 3.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.1%
No
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
14.8%
0-1
14.6%
1-1
14.4%
1-0
9.8%
0-2
9.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.5%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Hamrun Spartans goals →
01234
015%15%9.4%3.7%1.1%
19.8%14%7.7%3.1%0.9%
24.5%5.4%3.2%1.3%0.4%
31.2%1.5%0.9%0.3%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Hamrun Spartans goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Marsaxlokk is 0.26 points worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.94).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.32 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.62).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Marsaxlokk is 0.50 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.65).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W21W20W00D00D21W01L00DH·TAR25/01A·BIR31/01H·SLI03/02A·ZAB07/02H·HIB15/02A·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.570.430.440.69
vs Stronger (11)0.360.640.200.600.500.67
vs Similar (19)0.580.530.780.330.400.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D20W00D00D00D01L10W01LA·VAL24/01H·SLI31/01A·GZI03/02H·NAX07/02H·ZAB13/02A·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.370.560.310.500.43
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (16)0.560.440.500.380.620.50
vs Weaker (13)0.540.310.710.290.330.33
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L00D01L00D02L00D10W11DH·TAR25/01A·BIR31/01H·SLI03/02A·ZAB07/02H·HIB15/02A·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.710.500.620.44
vs Stronger (11)0.450.550.600.800.330.33
vs Similar (19)0.790.420.780.330.800.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D20W00D10W20W10W20W11DA·VAL24/01H·SLI31/01A·GZI03/02H·NAX07/02H·ZAB13/02A·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.401.190.310.500.50
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (16)1.000.441.620.120.380.75
vs Weaker (13)0.770.230.860.290.670.17
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.7%-------✗ Miss

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Hamrun Spartans
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Semir Smajlagić20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ante Ćorić17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ederson40%
Joseph Mbong40%
Vincenzo Polito40%
Matias Garcia25%
Emerson20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ognjen Bjeličić17%
Henry Bonello17%
Jovan Čađenović17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jovan Čađenović17%
Rafael Compri17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N'Dri Koffi50%
Matias Garcia25%
Ederson20%
Semir Smajlagić20%
Serigne Saliou Thioune20%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Marsaxlokk's squad is €1m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€4m vs €5m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's midfield is €1m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€2m vs €3m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
MAR wins
0
Draws
5
HS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-0
14/12/25AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-3
23/09/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-2
30/04/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
05/01/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans1-6
02/11/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-3
16/03/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-2
25/11/23HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-1
08/03/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
28/02/26AMosta Vs MAR1-2
23/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-0
18/02/26AFloriana Vs MAR0-0
15/02/26HMAR Vs Hibernians2-1
07/02/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MAR1-2
03/02/26HMAR Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
31/01/26ABirkirkara Vs MAR0-1
25/01/26HMAR Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-1

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/26AMosta Vs HS2-1
08/03/26HHS Vs Birkirkara3-0
01/03/26HHS Vs Floriana1-1
23/02/26HHS Vs Marsaxlokk2-0
18/02/26AHibernians Vs HS0-1
13/02/26HHS Vs Zabbar St. Patrick0-0
07/02/26HHS Vs Naxxar Lions4-0
03/02/26AGzira United Vs HS0-0
31/01/26HHS Vs Sliema Wanderers2-0
24/01/26AValletta FC Vs HS0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDD1.66
HomeWDWDD1.70
AwayWWDLW1.63
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%45%47%
AVG goals2.482.652.37
Over 1.5 %74%85%67%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %22%20%23%
Scored1.401.401.40
Conceded1.081.250.97
BTTS58%75%47%
Clean Sheet30%15%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.68
HomeWDWDW1.96
AwayWDDWL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%60%36%
AVG goals2.102.281.92
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %32%36%28%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.261.600.92
Conceded0.840.681.00
BTTS30%28%32%
Clean Sheet52%56%48%
Corners8.838.679.00
Cards5.757.504.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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