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Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2026
Time: 17:30
Final 2-1
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
29%
29%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Marsaxlokk a 29% win probability against Hamrun Spartans in the Malta: Premier League on 2026-05-09, with 29% for the draw and 42% for Hamrun Spartans. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (74%), Over 1.5 (74%).

Results analysis

Marsaxlokk finished 2-1 against Hamrun Spartans (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 29% home win, 29% draw and 42% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (74%), Over 1.5 (74%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L21W11D11D32W13L21W10W32WA·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.171.441.121.071.21
vs Stronger (11)1.001.451.202.000.831.00
vs Similar (19)1.421.001.550.731.251.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W11D30W12L23L01L30W41W12LA·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03A·MAR11/04H·GZI15/04H·NAX19/04A·FLO25/04A·VAL02/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.971.810.691.291.29
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (14)1.361.071.330.501.381.50
vs Weaker (15)1.870.802.330.671.171.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.1%
Under 2.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.8%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
7.8%
1-0
7.5%
2-1 ✓
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Hamrun Spartans goals →
01234
09.0%9.8%7.8%3.7%1.3%
17.5%14%8.9%4.2%1.5%
25.0%7.1%5.1%2.4%0.9%
31.9%2.7%1.9%0.9%0.3%
40.5%0.8%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Hamrun Spartans goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.91
Marsaxlokk
1.74
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.74
Marsaxlokk is 0.18 points worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.91).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Marsaxlokk
1.32
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
1.03
Birkirkara
0.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.29 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.62).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.68
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Gzira United
1.34
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.38
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Mosta
1.76
Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Marsaxlokk is 0.47 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.68).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D21W01L00D21W12L00D10W21WA·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.810.440.500.71
vs Stronger (11)0.640.730.800.800.500.67
vs Similar (19)0.680.470.820.270.500.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L10W01L12L00D20W11D00DA·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03A·MAR11/04H·GZI15/04H·NAX19/04A·FLO25/04A·VAL02/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.470.620.310.570.64
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (14)0.430.500.330.330.500.62
vs Weaker (15)0.800.470.890.330.670.67
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
BIR (12)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
HS (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
FLO (6)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
HS (6)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-2
23/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-0
14/12/25AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-3
23/09/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-2
30/04/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
05/01/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans1-6
02/11/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-3
16/03/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-2

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions3-2
26/04/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-0
19/04/26HMAR Vs Gzira United2-1
15/04/26HMAR Vs Floriana1-3
11/04/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-2
14/03/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-1
08/03/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
28/02/26AMosta Vs MAR1-2
23/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-0
18/02/26AFloriana Vs MAR0-0

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26AValletta FC Vs HS2-1
25/04/26AFloriana Vs HS1-4
19/04/26HHS Vs Naxxar Lions3-0
15/04/26HHS Vs Gzira United0-1
11/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs HS3-2
15/03/26AMosta Vs HS2-1
08/03/26HHS Vs Birkirkara3-0
01/03/26HHS Vs Floriana1-1
23/02/26HHS Vs Marsaxlokk2-0
18/02/26AHibernians Vs HS0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.68
HomeWLWWW1.83
AwayWWDLW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%52%44%
AVG goals2.562.872.30
Over 1.5 %74%83%67%
Over 2.5 %52%57%48%
Over 3.5 %24%30%19%
Scored1.421.521.33
Conceded1.141.350.96
BTTS58%74%44%
Clean Sheet30%17%41%
Corners---
Cards---
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.60
HomeWDWLW1.96
AwayWLLWL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%60%32%
AVG goals2.282.242.32
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %38%36%40%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored1.321.561.08
Conceded0.960.681.24
BTTS36%28%44%
Clean Sheet46%56%36%
Corners8.838.679.00
Cards5.757.504.00

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3465
56%
1.9
5523+32
2.3
74%
35%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.7
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3459
50%
1.7
4539+6
2.5
76%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3434
21%
1.0
4547-2
2.7
82%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3425
15%
0.7
3562-27
2.9
79%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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