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Marsaxlokk vs Mosta Result & Analysis

Date: 23/09/2024
Time: 18:15
Final 2-4
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
34%
34%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W20W01L11D12L01L12L02L01LA·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04A·HIB27/04H·BAL03/05A·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07H·GZI18/08H·MEL24/08H·BIR29/08H·SLI15/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.000.881.121.690.85
vs Stronger (7)1.001.140.501.001.671.33
vs Similar (22)1.270.950.921.171.700.70
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D04L31W00D20W02L12L02L10WA·GZI17/03H·SAN07/04A·FLO13/04H·HIB21/04A·BAL28/04H·NAX03/05A·SLI16/08A·NAX23/08A·GZI29/08H·HAM15/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.270.791.500.621.06
vs Stronger (8)0.252.120.252.500.251.75
vs Similar (20)0.901.051.111.220.730.91
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%025%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.6%
Under 1.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
30.3%
Under 2.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
12.9%
Under 3.5
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.0%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
13.1%
0-1
12.3%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
0-2
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
016%12%6.4%2.0%0.5%
113%15%6.3%2.0%0.5%
27.2%6.7%3.1%1.0%0.2%
32.4%2.2%1.0%0.3%0.1%
40.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Marsaxlokk is 0.28 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Marsaxlokk is 0.38 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.44 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.66).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D01L11D00D00D01L01L01LA·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04A·HIB27/04H·BAL03/05A·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07H·GZI18/08H·MEL24/08H·BIR29/08H·SLI15/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.470.470.620.31
vs Stronger (7)0.290.430.250.750.330.00
vs Similar (22)0.590.410.500.420.700.40
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W03L11D00D10W00D01L01L00DA·GZI17/03H·SAN07/04A·FLO13/04H·HIB21/04A·BAL28/04H·NAX03/05A·SLI16/08A·NAX23/08A·GZI29/08H·HAM15/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.360.710.310.50
vs Stronger (8)0.121.120.001.250.251.00
vs Similar (20)0.400.450.560.560.270.36
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W20W00D00D12L01L11D01L00DA·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04A·HIB27/04H·BAL03/05A·PAR11/07H·PAR18/07H·GZI18/08H·MEL24/08H·BIR29/08H·SLI15/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.410.651.080.54
vs Stronger (7)0.710.710.250.251.331.33
vs Similar (22)0.680.550.420.751.000.30
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L01L20W00D10W02L11D01L10WA·GZI17/03H·SAN07/04A·FLO13/04H·HIB21/04A·BAL28/04H·NAX03/05A·SLI16/08A·NAX23/08A·GZI29/08H·HAM15/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.430.790.310.56
vs Stronger (8)0.121.000.251.250.000.75
vs Similar (20)0.500.600.560.670.450.55
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
MAR wins
0
Draws
4
MOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Mosta · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/24HMAR Vs Mosta1-2
28/10/23AMosta Vs MAR3-2
08/01/23AMosta Vs MAR2-1
27/08/22HMAR Vs Mosta1-4

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/24HMAR Vs Sliema Wanderers0-1
29/08/24HMAR Vs Birkirkara0-2
24/08/24HMAR Vs Melita1-2
18/08/24HMAR Vs Gzira United0-1
18/07/24HMAR Vs Partizani1-2
11/07/24APartizani Vs MAR1-1
03/05/24HMAR Vs Balzan FC0-1
27/04/24AHibernians Vs MAR0-2
20/04/24HMAR Vs Floriana1-0
12/04/24ASanta Lucía Vs MAR0-3

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/24HMOS Vs Hamrun Spartans1-0
29/08/24AGzira United Vs MOS2-0
23/08/24ANaxxar Lions Vs MOS2-1
16/08/24ASliema Wanderers Vs MOS2-0
03/05/24HMOS Vs Naxxar Lions2-0
28/04/24ABalzan FC Vs MOS0-0
21/04/24HMOS Vs Hibernians3-1
13/04/24AFloriana Vs MOS4-0
07/04/24HMOS Vs Santa Lucía1-1
17/03/24AGzira United Vs MOS2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.16
HomeLLLLL0.78
AwayWWWWD1.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%19%39%
AVG goals2.422.412.43
Over 1.5 %74%70%78%
Over 2.5 %42%48%35%
Over 3.5 %16%11%22%
Scored1.221.001.48
Conceded1.201.410.96
BTTS60%59%61%
Clean Sheet24%11%39%
Corners---
Cards---
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.44
HomeLDWWW1.54
AwayLDLLL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%35%
AVG goals2.342.582.12
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %16%25%8%
Scored1.141.251.04
Conceded1.201.331.08
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet32%33%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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