The model favours a home win, with Marsaxlokk expected to edge Mosta 51% of the time, 27% for a draw and 22% for an away victory. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, but the most probable total is two goals, a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.7% probability. Marsaxlokk, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.45 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. Mosta, on the road, averages 0.92 scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.9%, Under 5.5 at 94.2%, Home +2 handicap at 91.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 91.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.0%, and Under 4.5 at 86.1%. Marsaxlokk come off a win, while Mosta are on a three-game winning streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marsaxlokk win
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.57
1.07
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.36
1.50
1.75
0.86
1.14
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.95
1.60
0.80
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mosta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.53
1.29
1.53
1.00
1.54
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.62
1.38
1.62
0.91
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.3%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Mosta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
5.8%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.6%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Marsaxlokk is 0.80 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Marsaxlokk is 0.23 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Marsaxlokk is 0.61 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Marsaxlokk or Draw
78.0%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Marsaxlokk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk or Mosta
73.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Marsaxlokk + Mosta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mosta
48.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Draw + Mosta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5
Over
63.8%
Under
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Marsaxlokk, so a minus line means Marsaxlokk give that many goals of a start and Mosta receive them. At -1, Marsaxlokk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Marsaxlokk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk -2
12.2%
Draw -2
16.1%
Mosta +2
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk -1
28.2%
Draw -1
23.0%
Mosta +1
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk +1
78.0%
Draw +1
13.6%
Mosta -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk +2
91.6%
Draw +2
6.0%
Mosta -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
1.25
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.47
0.80
0.30
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mosta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.65
0.65
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.75
0.69
0.69
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.5%
Under 0.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.0%
Under 1.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.25
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mosta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.65
0.88
0.46
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.88
0.69
0.92
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.0%
Under 0.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.3%
Under 1.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Marsaxlokk and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United