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Marsaxlokk vs Naxxar Lions Result & Analysis

Date: 15/12/2024
Time: 12:30
Final 1-1
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
32%
29%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L21W31W11D00D32W11D21W31W00DH·MOS23/09H·BAL28/09A·ZAB02/10H·FLO21/10A·NAX27/10A·HAM02/11H·HIB07/11H·BAL24/11A·MEL01/12A·GZI08/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.000.941.351.540.54
vs Stronger (6)1.331.170.751.002.501.50
vs Similar (23)1.130.960.921.501.360.36
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-633D06L00D11D00D01L03L30W11D03LA·ZAB22/09H·HAM27/09H·MEL03/10H·GZI20/10H·MAR27/10A·BIR02/11H·SLI07/11A·MEL25/11A·GZI30/11H·ZAB08/12
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.530.651.711.381.31
vs Stronger (7)0.293.140.203.600.502.00
vs Similar (22)1.051.000.830.921.301.10
vs Weaker (1)4.002.00--4.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%
0-1
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.5%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
09.0%9.3%7.2%3.3%1.1%
18.0%14%8.6%3.9%1.3%
25.5%7.6%5.1%2.3%0.8%
32.2%3.0%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Marsaxlokk is 0.41 points better than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Marsaxlokk is 0.53 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 0.94).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.45 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D21W10W00D10W10W11D10W00DH·MOS23/09H·BAL28/09A·ZAB02/10H·FLO21/10A·NAX27/10A·HAM02/11H·HIB07/11H·BAL24/11A·MEL01/12A·GZI08/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.400.530.590.620.15
vs Stronger (6)0.500.330.500.500.500.00
vs Similar (23)0.570.430.500.670.640.18
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L00D10W00D00D01L10W00D01LA·ZAB22/09H·HAM27/09H·MEL03/10H·GZI20/10H·MAR27/10A·BIR02/11H·SLI07/11A·MEL25/11A·GZI30/11H·ZAB08/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.410.650.690.54
vs Stronger (7)0.141.570.001.800.501.00
vs Similar (22)0.550.270.580.170.500.40
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W10W01L00D22D01L10W21W00DH·MOS23/09H·BAL28/09A·ZAB02/10H·FLO21/10A·NAX27/10A·HAM02/11H·HIB07/11H·BAL24/11A·MEL01/12A·GZI08/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.410.760.920.38
vs Stronger (6)0.830.830.250.502.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.570.520.420.830.730.18
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D02L00D01L00D01L02L20W11D02LA·ZAB22/09H·HAM27/09H·MEL03/10H·GZI20/10H·MAR27/10A·BIR02/11H·SLI07/11A·MEL25/11A·GZI30/11H·ZAB08/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.930.241.060.690.77
vs Stronger (7)0.141.570.201.800.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.500.730.250.750.800.70
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Marsaxlokk's squad is €2m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Naxxar Lions have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's midfield is €1m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Marsaxlokk and Naxxar Lions have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
MAR wins
2
Draws
0
NL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/24ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR0-0
28/01/24ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR0-0
15/09/23HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions5-1

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24AGzira United Vs MAR0-0
01/12/24AMelita Vs MAR1-3
24/11/24HMAR Vs Balzan FC2-1
07/11/24HMAR Vs Hibernians1-1
02/11/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-3
27/10/24ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR0-0
21/10/24HMAR Vs Floriana1-1
02/10/24AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MAR1-3
28/09/24HMAR Vs Balzan FC2-1
23/09/24HMAR Vs Mosta2-4

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24HNL Vs Zabbar St. Patrick0-3
30/11/24AGzira United Vs NL1-1
25/11/24AMelita Vs NL0-3
07/11/24HNL Vs Sliema Wanderers0-3
02/11/24ABirkirkara Vs NL1-0
27/10/24HNL Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
20/10/24HNL Vs Gzira United1-1
03/10/24HNL Vs Melita0-0
27/09/24HNL Vs Hamrun Spartans0-6
22/09/24AZabbar St. Patrick Vs NL3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.44
HomeLWDDW1.04
AwayWDWWD1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%27%50%
AVG goals2.582.582.58
Over 1.5 %74%73%75%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %24%15%33%
Scored1.421.191.67
Conceded1.161.380.92
BTTS62%65%58%
Clean Sheet26%12%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.30
HomeDDDLL1.07
AwayLDLWD1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%26%43%
AVG goals2.682.442.96
Over 1.5 %80%74%87%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %24%22%26%
Scored1.220.891.61
Conceded1.461.561.35
BTTS42%30%57%
Clean Sheet32%37%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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