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Marsaxlokk vs Naxxar Lions Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 3-2
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
54%
25%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Marsaxlokk a 54% win probability against Naxxar Lions in the Malta: Premier League on 2026-05-02, with 25% for the draw and 21% for Naxxar Lions. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (80%).

Results analysis

Marsaxlokk finished 3-2 against Naxxar Lions (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 54% home win, 25% draw and 21% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (80%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D02L21W11D11D32W13L21W10WH·HIB15/02A·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.101.331.071.071.13
vs Stronger (11)1.001.451.202.000.831.00
vs Similar (19)1.320.891.400.601.221.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D42W21W00D11D21W01L11D03L00DH·SLI14/02H·GZI17/02A·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04A·HAM19/04A·GZI26/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.501.461.001.121.88
vs Stronger (7)1.001.860.671.001.252.50
vs Similar (23)1.351.391.701.001.081.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.0%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.5%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
06.4%4.8%3.2%1.2%0.3%
18.8%12%5.9%2.1%0.6%
29.0%9.8%5.4%2.0%0.5%
35.5%6.0%3.3%1.2%0.3%
42.5%2.8%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.91
Marsaxlokk
1.74
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.74
Marsaxlokk is 0.67 points better than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.32
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
1.03
Birkirkara
0.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.08 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.68
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Gzira United
1.34
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.38
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Mosta
1.76
Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Marsaxlokk is 0.43 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
BIR (12)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
HS (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
FLO (6)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
HS (6)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
24/08/25ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR0-1
13/03/25ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR1-0
15/12/24HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
27/10/24ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR0-0
28/01/24ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR0-0
15/09/23HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions5-1

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-0
19/04/26HMAR Vs Gzira United2-1
15/04/26HMAR Vs Floriana1-3
11/04/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-2
14/03/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-1
08/03/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
28/02/26AMosta Vs MAR1-2
23/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-0
18/02/26AFloriana Vs MAR0-0
15/02/26HMAR Vs Hibernians2-1

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26AGzira United Vs NL0-0
19/04/26AHamrun Spartans Vs NL3-0
15/04/26HNL Vs Valletta FC1-1
11/04/26HNL Vs Floriana0-1
14/03/26HNL Vs Hibernians2-1
08/03/26AMarsaxlokk Vs NL1-1
01/03/26HNL Vs Birkirkara0-0
21/02/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs NL1-2
17/02/26HNL Vs Gzira United4-2
14/02/26HNL Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.64
HomeDWLWW1.77
AwayWWDLW1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%43%
AVG goals2.462.772.21
Over 1.5 %72%82%64%
Over 2.5 %50%55%46%
Over 3.5 %22%27%18%
Scored1.361.451.29
Conceded1.101.320.93
BTTS56%73%43%
Clean Sheet32%18%43%
Corners---
Cards---
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLD1.18
HomeWDWLD1.53
AwayLWDLD0.97
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%26%
AVG goals2.742.472.90
Over 1.5 %76%68%81%
Over 2.5 %50%42%55%
Over 3.5 %30%21%35%
Scored1.181.371.06
Conceded1.561.111.84
BTTS50%53%48%
Clean Sheet20%26%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3465
56%
1.9
5523+32
2.3
74%
35%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.7
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3459
50%
1.7
4539+6
2.5
76%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3434
21%
1.0
4547-2
2.7
82%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3425
15%
0.7
3562-27
2.9
79%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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