The encounter between Marsaxlokk and Sliema Wanderers is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The probability of a win at home sits at 40%, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 31%. The average number of goals expected is 2.5, with the most probable total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a probability of 14.1%. Marsaxlokk, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Sliema Wanderers, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (95.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Under 4.5 (89.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.1%), and Home +2 handicap (87.1%). Marsaxlokk’s recent form shows a 2-game winning streak, while Sliema Wanderers have endured three straight defeats. This balance of form and the high probabilities of low-scoring outcomes suggest a cautious, closely contested match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marsaxlokk win
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers win
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.57
1.07
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.36
1.50
1.75
0.86
1.14
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.95
1.60
0.80
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.08
1.18
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.08
1.25
0.50
0.88
1.38
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
1.28
0.89
1.33
1.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Sliema Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.7%
6.0%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.2%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.2%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Sliema Wanderers goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Marsaxlokk is 0.18 points better than Sliema Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Marsaxlokk is 0.14 goals better than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Marsaxlokk is 0.02 goals worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Marsaxlokk or Draw
66.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
34%
covers Marsaxlokk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk or Sliema Wanderers
70.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
34%
covers Marsaxlokk + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sliema Wanderers
63.1%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
34%
covers Draw + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Marsaxlokk, so a minus line means Marsaxlokk give that many goals of a start and Sliema Wanderers receive them. At -1, Marsaxlokk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Marsaxlokk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk -2
5.9%
Draw -2
11.1%
Sliema Wanderers +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk -1
17.0%
Draw -1
19.9%
Sliema Wanderers +1
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk +1
66.4%
Draw +1
18.8%
Sliema Wanderers -1
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Marsaxlokk)
Marsaxlokk +2
85.2%
Draw +2
9.9%
Sliema Wanderers -2
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
1.25
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.47
0.80
0.30
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.54
0.54
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.12
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.25
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (18)
0.50
0.67
0.22
0.67
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Marsaxlokk's squad is €3m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Marsaxlokk's attack is €1m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Sliema Wanderers have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Marsaxlokk's defence is €1m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →