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Marsaxlokk vs Valletta FC Result & Analysis

Date: 26/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
31%
32%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Marsaxlokk a 31% win probability against Valletta FC in the Malta: Premier League on 2026-04-26, with 32% for the draw and 37% for Valletta FC. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%).

Results analysis

Marsaxlokk finished 1-0 against Valletta FC (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 31% home win, 32% draw and 37% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W21W00D02L21W11D11D32W13L21WA·ZAB07/02H·HIB15/02A·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.131.471.131.071.13
vs Stronger (11)1.001.451.202.000.831.00
vs Similar (19)1.420.951.600.701.221.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W00D01L11D31W11D21W11D02LA·BIR08/02A·GZI13/02A·ZAB17/02H·SLI21/02A·HIB28/02H·TAR08/03A·MAR14/03H·GZI12/04A·NAX15/04A·FLO18/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.731.470.801.130.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.300.731.470.801.130.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.7%
Under 1.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.6%
Under 2.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.0%
Under 3.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.5%
0-1
11.6%
1-0 ✓
10.2%
1-2
7.8%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
6.0%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Valletta FC goals →
01234
012%12%7.5%2.9%0.8%
110%15%7.8%3.0%0.9%
26.0%6.9%4.0%1.6%0.4%
32.1%2.4%1.4%0.5%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Valletta FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.91
Marsaxlokk
1.74
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.74
Marsaxlokk is 0.15 points better than Valletta FC in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.59).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Marsaxlokk
1.32
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
1.03
Birkirkara
0.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.12 goals better than Valletta FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.21).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.68
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Gzira United
1.34
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.38
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Mosta
1.76
Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Marsaxlokk is 0.38 goals worse than Valletta FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.76).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W20W00D00D21W01L00D21W12L00DA·ZAB07/02H·HIB15/02A·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.730.470.470.67
vs Stronger (11)0.640.730.800.800.500.67
vs Similar (19)0.580.470.700.300.440.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valletta FCValletta FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W00D00D00D10W00D00D10W00DA·BIR08/02A·GZI13/02A·ZAB17/02H·SLI21/02A·HIB28/02H·TAR08/03A·MAR14/03H·GZI12/04A·NAX15/04A·FLO18/04
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.170.400.200.400.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.400.170.400.200.400.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %87% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D02L00D10W11D11D01L21WA·ZAB07/02H·HIB15/02A·FLO18/02A·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.730.670.600.47
vs Stronger (11)0.360.730.401.200.330.33
vs Similar (19)0.840.470.900.400.780.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valletta FCValletta FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D01L11D21W11D21W01L02LA·BIR08/02A·GZI13/02A·ZAB17/02H·SLI21/02A·HIB28/02H·TAR08/03A·MAR14/03H·GZI12/04A·NAX15/04A·FLO18/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.571.070.600.730.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.900.571.070.600.730.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
BIR (12)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
HS (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
FLO (6)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
HS (6)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 14. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
MAR wins
2
Draws
4
VF wins

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Valletta FC · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-1
20/12/25AValletta FC Vs MAR1-0
12/09/25AValletta FC Vs MAR3-1
25/02/24AValletta FC Vs MAR0-2
22/10/23HMAR Vs Valletta FC0-1
20/04/23AValletta FC Vs MAR1-1
11/12/22HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-2

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26HMAR Vs Gzira United2-1
15/04/26HMAR Vs Floriana1-3
11/04/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-2
14/03/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-1
08/03/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
28/02/26AMosta Vs MAR1-2
23/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-0
18/02/26AFloriana Vs MAR0-0
15/02/26HMAR Vs Hibernians2-1
07/02/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MAR1-2

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AFloriana Vs VF2-0
15/04/26ANaxxar Lions Vs VF1-1
12/04/26HVF Vs Gzira United2-1
14/03/26AMarsaxlokk Vs VF1-1
08/03/26HVF Vs Tarxien Rainbows3-1
28/02/26AHibernians Vs VF1-1
21/02/26HVF Vs Sliema Wanderers0-1
17/02/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs VF0-0
13/02/26AGzira United Vs VF0-2
08/02/26ABirkirkara Vs VF1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLW1.64
HomeDDWLW1.71
AwayWWDLW1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%45%
AVG goals2.522.862.28
Over 1.5 %74%86%66%
Over 2.5 %52%57%48%
Over 3.5 %24%29%21%
Scored1.401.481.34
Conceded1.121.380.93
BTTS58%76%45%
Clean Sheet30%14%41%
Corners---
Cards---
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDL2.06
HomeWDLWW2.24
AwayDDDDL1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%68%52%
AVG goals2.162.401.92
Over 1.5 %66%72%60%
Over 2.5 %38%52%24%
Over 3.5 %14%20%8%
Scored1.581.801.36
Conceded0.580.600.56
BTTS38%40%36%
Clean Sheet50%52%48%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3465
56%
1.9
5523+32
2.3
74%
35%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.7
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3459
50%
1.7
4539+6
2.5
76%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3434
21%
1.0
4547-2
2.7
82%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3425
15%
0.7
3562-27
2.9
79%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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