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Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2025
Time: 20:00
Final 1-0
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
38%
29%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk win✓ Hit
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W10W13L20W12L02L00D20W11DH·HAM30/04H·MOS17/08A·NAX24/08A·VAL12/09H·GZI17/09H·FLO20/09H·HAM23/09H·BIR28/09A·TAR02/10A·SLI26/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.071.421.501.560.78
vs Stronger (9)0.891.890.802.401.001.25
vs Similar (21)1.760.711.860.861.710.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D12L22D11D01L11D13L20W02L11DH·HIB01/05H·SLI16/08H·HIB24/08H·NAX13/09H·HAM16/09A·TAR20/09A·FLO24/09H·GZI28/09H·BIR03/10A·MOS24/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.201.351.181.461.23
vs Stronger (6)0.501.330.501.000.502.00
vs Similar (24)1.621.171.621.231.641.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-0 ✓
8.4%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
8.0%
0-1
7.8%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
5.8%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Zabbar St. Patrick goals →
01234
08.3%7.8%5.8%2.5%0.8%
18.4%14%8.0%3.4%1.1%
26.6%8.5%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.0%3.9%2.5%1.1%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Marsaxlokk is 0.71 points better than Zabbar St. Patrick in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 0.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Marsaxlokk is 0.06 goals better than Zabbar St. Patrick in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Marsaxlokk is 0.18 goals better than Zabbar St. Patrick in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.32).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D00D00D20W01L00D00D00D01LH·HAM30/04H·MOS17/08A·NAX24/08A·VAL12/09H·GZI17/09H·FLO20/09H·HAM23/09H·BIR28/09A·TAR02/10A·SLI26/10
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.430.580.670.440.28
vs Stronger (9)0.110.780.201.000.000.50
vs Similar (21)0.670.290.860.430.570.21
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L11D11D01L10W01L10W01L00DH·HIB01/05H·SLI16/08H·HIB24/08H·NAX13/09H·HAM16/09A·TAR20/09A·FLO24/09H·GZI28/09H·BIR03/10A·MOS24/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.710.590.380.62
vs Stronger (6)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.620.500.770.460.450.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W13L00D11D02L00D20W10WH·HAM30/04H·MOS17/08A·NAX24/08A·VAL12/09H·GZI17/09H·FLO20/09H·HAM23/09H·BIR28/09A·TAR02/10A·SLI26/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.630.830.831.110.50
vs Stronger (9)0.781.110.601.401.000.75
vs Similar (21)1.100.431.000.431.140.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D11D00D00D01L12L10W01L11DH·HIB01/05H·SLI16/08H·HIB24/08H·NAX13/09H·HAM16/09A·TAR20/09A·FLO24/09H·GZI28/09H·BIR03/10A·MOS24/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.650.591.080.62
vs Stronger (6)0.170.330.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (24)1.000.670.850.771.180.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Marsaxlokk and Zabbar St. Patrick have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Zabbar St. Patrick have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Zabbar St. Patrick have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's defence is €2m less valuable than Zabbar St. Patrick's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
MAR wins
1
Draws
0
ZSP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
19/01/25HMAR Vs Zabbar St. Patrick3-1
22/12/24HMAR Vs Zabbar St. Patrick2-2
02/10/24AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MAR1-3

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25ASliema Wanderers Vs MAR1-1
02/10/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs MAR0-2
28/09/25HMAR Vs Birkirkara0-0
23/09/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-2
20/09/25HMAR Vs Floriana1-2
17/09/25HMAR Vs Gzira United2-0
12/09/25AValletta FC Vs MAR3-1
24/08/25ANaxxar Lions Vs MAR0-1
17/08/25HMAR Vs Mosta3-1
30/04/25HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/10/25AMosta Vs ZSP1-1
03/10/25HZSP Vs Birkirkara0-2
28/09/25HZSP Vs Gzira United2-0
24/09/25AFloriana Vs ZSP3-1
20/09/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs ZSP1-1
16/09/25HZSP Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
13/09/25HZSP Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
24/08/25HZSP Vs Hibernians2-2
16/08/25HZSP Vs Sliema Wanderers1-2
01/05/25HZSP Vs Hibernians2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWD1.52
HomeWWLLD1.12
AwayDWLWD1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%28%56%
AVG goals2.462.482.44
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.381.081.68
Conceded1.081.400.76
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet32%16%48%
Corners---
Cards---
Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.16
HomeDDLWL1.22
AwayDDDLD1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%26%
AVG goals2.822.812.83
Over 1.5 %86%89%83%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %32%26%39%
Scored1.361.371.35
Conceded1.461.441.48
BTTS56%48%65%
Clean Sheet26%30%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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