Marseille, fresh from a 0-2 loss to Monaco, will look to rebound against Paris FC, who have just secured a 3-0 win over Nice. The model places a 55% chance on a Marseille victory, 25% on a draw, and 20% on a Paris FC win, making the home win the clear favourite. With an expected 2.9 goals, the most likely total is two goals, a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.6% chance. Marseille’s home form shows an average of 2.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Paris FC’s away numbers are 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%) and Under 6.5 (97.5%), each with edges of 3% to 8%. Other selections are Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.6%) and Home +2 handicap (93.4%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marseille win
56.1%
Avg Implied 53.6% · @ 1.76
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Dafabet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.90
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.11
Marathonbet
4.05
Pinnacle
4.02
Dafabet
4.00
Betano
4.00
Paris FC win
19.8%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.28
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.51
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marseille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.50
1.93
1.27
1.87
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.50
2.10
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
1.23
1.60
1.40
2.75
1.12
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.64
1.43
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
0.80
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.29
1.42
1.50
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.1%
@ 1.18+1.9%
Under 1.5
18.9%
@ 4.50-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Under
Unibet
4.80
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.63-0.6%
Under 2.5
42.4%
@ 2.28+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.34
Unibet
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.30
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.2%
@ 2.54-1.8%
Under 3.5
64.8%
@ 1.49+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Under
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Both teams to score
Yes
57.2%
@ 1.59-1.3%
No
42.8%
@ 2.25+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
No
Unibet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
William Hil
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 7.24+5.1%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.53+3.9%
2-0
9.2%@ 9.07+4.3%
1-0
8.6%@ 8.28+3.1%
3-1
6.4%@ 11.70+2.5%
0-0
6.0%@ 13.67+2.7%
3-0
5.9%@ 13.66+2.6%
1-2
5.5%@ 12.65+2.0%
Marseille goals ↓
Paris FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.3%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.6%
11%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.9%
6.4%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.8%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marseille goals (down), columns = Paris FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Marseille is 0.44 points better than Paris FC in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Marseille is 0.47 goals better than Paris FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Paris FC
1.47
Rennes
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Marseille is 0.15 goals better than Paris FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Marseille is 6.6 percentage points better than Paris FC in terms of average possession (57% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Marseille
For 5.6 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris FC
For 4.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 8.7 · Total 17.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Marseille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.0
9.1
4.3
4.4
4.2
23.4
23.4
23.3
vs Stronger (4)
8.0
8.0
8.0
5.2
4.0
5.7
25.5
23.0
26.3
vs Similar (26)
9.7
9.2
10.4
4.6
4.6
4.5
22.7
23.1
22.0
vs Weaker (20)
8.4
8.9
8.1
3.9
4.2
3.5
23.9
24.0
23.8
% over line
44%
48%
40%
72%
72%
72%
52%
48%
56%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
28%
28%
28%
48%
52%
44%
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.2
9.5
3.9
4.4
3.5
22.3
22.7
21.9
vs Stronger (5)
7.8
9.0
7.0
2.6
1.5
3.3
15.6
14.0
16.7
vs Similar (35)
9.8
9.6
10.1
4.0
4.8
3.2
22.3
23.2
21.5
vs Weaker (10)
8.5
8.0
8.8
4.2
4.0
4.3
25.4
24.8
25.8
% over line
50%
42%
58%
54%
54%
54%
56%
67%
46%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
46%
46%
46%
44%
33%
54%
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.91-1.3%
Under 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.84+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.6%
@ 1.89+3.2%
Under 3.5
47.4%
@ 1.84-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.6%
Under 21.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Marseille or Draw
81.9%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
+4.0%
56%
24%
20%
covers Marseille + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Marseille or Paris FC
75.5%
Avg Implied 76.3% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.9%
56%
24%
20%
covers Marseille + Paris FC
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Draw or Paris FC
42.7%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 2.05
Edge
-3.2%
56%
24%
20%
covers Draw + Paris FC
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
SBO
2.07
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Marseille over/under 0.5
Over
84.5%
@ 1.11+0.7%
Under
15.5%
@ 5.71-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.85
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marseille over/under 1.5
Over
55.5%
@ 1.66-0.9%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.15+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Unibet
2.15
Marseille over/under 2.5
Over
28.6%
@ 3.05-1.9%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.34+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.24
1xBet
3.12
Marathonbet
3.12
BetVictor
3.10
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marseille over/under 3.5
Over
11.9%
@ 6.55-2.3%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.08+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Paris FC over/under 0.5
Over
61.9%
@ 1.38-5.5%
Under
38.1%
@ 2.85+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.84
Paris FC over/under 1.5
Over
25.1%
@ 2.90-7.0%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.38+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Marathonbet
2.98
Pinnacle
2.97
10Bet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Paris FC over/under 2.5
Over
7.4%
@ 7.33-5.3%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.07+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Paris FC over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
@ 17.12-3.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Marseille, so a minus line means Marseille give that many goals of a start and Paris FC receive them. At -1, Marseille must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Marseille win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Marseille)
Marseille -2
16.1%
@ 5.63+0.1%
Draw -2
18.0%
@ 4.98-0.1%
Paris FC +2
66.0%
@ 1.37+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.35
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Handicap -1 (Marseille)
Marseille -1
34.0%
@ 2.82+2.3%
Draw -1
23.3%
@ 3.70-0.9%
Paris FC +1
42.7%
@ 2.04-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.72
Unibet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Handicap +1 (Marseille)
Marseille +1
81.9%
@ 1.20+8.4%
Draw +1
11.6%
@ 5.53-4.4%
Paris FC -1
6.6%
@ 8.42-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
3.80
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Handicap +2 (Marseille)
Marseille +2
93.4%
@ 1.05+5.4%
Draw +2
4.8%
@ 11.67-3.1%
Paris FC -2
1.7%
@ 22.67-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marseille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.33
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
0.70
0.20
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
0.40
0.60
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.71
0.64
0.31
0.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.42
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.29+1.0%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 3.40-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.2%
@ 2.40-0.8%
Under 1.5
61.8%
@ 1.54+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
William Hil
2.40
Under
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 5.58-2.8%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.12+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.85
William Hil
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Under
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marseille over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.5%
@ 1.65-8.1%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.15+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Unibet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.14
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.11
Marseille over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.1%
@ 4.16-9.2%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.19+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.15
Unibet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
Marseille over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 9.75-7.4%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.01
Paris FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.9%
@ 2.33+10.0%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.55-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Under
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Paris FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.8%
@ 7.95+2.2%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.04-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Paris FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
@ 13.00-4.2%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marseille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.33
0.93
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.06
1.40
1.00
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.69
1.20
0.80
1.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.93
0.79
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.88
0.83
0.83
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.7%
@ 1.17+0.6%
Under 0.5
19.3%
@ 4.69-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.80
Betano
4.65
10Bet
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.2%
@ 1.84-0.7%
Under 1.5
49.8%
@ 1.91+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Unibet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
10Bet
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.1%
@ 3.60-5.9%
Under 2.5
79.9%
@ 1.26+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
10Bet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marseille over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.3%
@ 1.45-10.3%
Under
45.7%
@ 2.63+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.60
Marseille over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.7%
@ 3.04-11.9%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.33+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marseille over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
@ 7.45-8.1%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.06+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.03
Paris FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.1%
@ 1.94+11.1%
Under
40.9%
@ 1.79-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Paris FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.1%
@ 5.79+4.1%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.10-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Paris FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 11.00-4.7%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.01
-
-
-
+7.4%
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+8.1%
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+5.4%
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+3.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+5.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
88.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+2.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
+9.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-2.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.12
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
+2.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
84.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+0.7%
Under 4.5
84.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+5.0%
Home or Draw
81.9%
1.21
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+4.0%
Home +1 handicap
81.9%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.17
+8.4%
Under 5.5 cards
81.6%
1.25
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.22
-
-
-
+7.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.33
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
+11.9%
Over 1.5
81.1%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
+1.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+0.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
+5.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-4.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
1.23
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-0.9%
Under 11.5 corners
75.2%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
+3.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
74.9%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
+7.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+1.0%
Over 2.5 cards
73.0%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.34
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
71.4%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
+1.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Marseille · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mason Greenwood41%
Neal Maupay33%
Amine Gouiri33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28%
Igor Paixão27%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Hamed Junior Traorè17%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Robinio Vaz16%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Amir Murillo8%
Tim Weah8%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Nayef Aguerd5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Bilal Nadir4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Benjamin Pavard3%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Facundo Medina0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Medina32%
Quinten Timber31%
Nayef Aguerd27%
Geoffrey Kondogbia25%
Benjamin Pavard22%
Himad Abdelli22%
Amir Murillo21%
Leonardo Balerdi20%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Bilal Nadir18%
Ulisses Garcia17%
Tim Weah15%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg14%
Mason Greenwood14%
Matt O'Riley12%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Emerson Palmieri11%
Darryl Bakola10%
Gerónimo Rulli8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Amine Gouiri7%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Robinio Vaz5%
Igor Paixão5%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang2%
Neal Maupay0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matt O'Riley21%
Amine Gouiri19%
Mason Greenwood18%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang18%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Igor Paixão15%
Bilal Nadir14%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Hamed Junior Traorè11%
Robinio Vaz11%
Tim Weah10%
Darryl Bakola10%
Ethan Nwaneri9%
Benjamin Pavard8%
Amir Murillo8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Geoffrey Kondogbia6%
Emerson Palmieri6%
Angel Gomes5%
Facundo Medina4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mason Greenwood48%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang22%
Igor Paixão22%
Amine Gouiri19%
Leonardo Balerdi6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Tim Weah5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg2%
Angel Gomes0%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Benjamin Pavard0%
Amir Murillo0%
Facundo Medina0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Bilal Nadir0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Paris FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilan Kebbal26%
Marshall Munetsi25%
Lohann Doucet20%
Willem Geubbels19%
Luca Koleosho17%
Alimami Gory16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Jonathan Ikoné15%
Nouha Dicko12%
Moses Simon10%
Rudy Matondo8%
Vincent Marchetti8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Otávio4%
Adama Camara3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Julien López0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Diego Coppola0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maxime López41%
Lohann Doucet40%
Thibault De Smet32%
Otávio29%
Pierre Lees Melou27%
Adama Camara25%
Ilan Kebbal23%
Hamari Traoré22%
Rudy Matondo17%
Ciro Immobile15%
Timothée Kolodziejczak15%
Moustapha Mbow15%
Alimami Gory12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Kevin Trapp9%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Diego Coppola7%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Luca Koleosho6%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Willem Geubbels0%
Moses Simon0%
Marshall Munetsi0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Jean-Philippe Krasso0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilan Kebbal16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Diego Coppola14%
Pierre Lees Melou14%
Nouha Dicko12%
Maxime López11%
Moses Simon10%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Marshall Munetsi6%
Hamari Traoré6%
Luca Koleosho6%
Thibault De Smet5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Jonathan Ikoné4%
Willem Geubbels4%
Moustapha Mbow3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Moses Simon14%
Ilan Kebbal13%
Marshall Munetsi12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Willem Geubbels11%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Rudy Matondo8%
Ciro Immobile8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Diego Coppola0%
Luca Koleosho0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Marseille's squad is €49m more valuable than Paris FC's (€225m vs €176m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Marseille's attack is €32m more valuable than Paris FC's (€91m vs €59m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Marseille's midfield is €13m more valuable than Paris FC's (€68m vs €54m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Marseille's defence is €4m more valuable than Paris FC's (€66m vs €62m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre