PythiaFootballBETA
Marseille is the clear favourite to win this match, with a predicted 63% chance of a home win. The model's high rating is due in part to Rennes' vulnerability at home, where they have conceded an average of 2.33 goals per match against stronger opponents. Marseille, meanwhile, has been in good form, scoring an average of 1.88 goals per match at home against weaker opponents. Marseille's home win probability is complemented by a 19% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of a Rennes win.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 4.2, with the most likely score being 2-1, which has a 8.1% probability. Rennes' recent form suggests they may struggle to find the back of the net, having scored an average of 1.44 goals per match away against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with suggested picks including Over 1.5 (93%), Over 2.5 (79.4% with an edge), and BTTS Yes (73.4%). The probabilities for each possible result are 63% for a home win, 18% for a draw, and 19% for an away win.
Marseille's win extends their 2-game winning run, with a 3-1 scoreline against Rennes. The model correctly predicted a home win, with a pre-match probability of 63%. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 hitting at 93%, Over 2.5 also hitting at 79%, and BTTS Yes hitting at 73%. The model's call on Home win was correct, and the expected total goals of 4.2 was surpassed.
Marseille| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.45 | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.17 | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.59 | 1.35 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Rennes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.50 | 1.81 | 1.06 | 1.79 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.50 | 2.17 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 3.33 |
| vs Similar (11) | 2.00 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.77 | 1.15 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
| Rennes goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
MarseilleRennesMarseille| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 23.7 | 23.8 | 23.6 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 25.3 | 24.3 | 26.3 |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 22.7 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 8.6 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 24.0 | 24.3 | 23.8 |
| % over line | 36% | 40% | 32% | 72% | 68% | 76% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| % under line | 64% | 60% | 68% | 28% | 32% | 24% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Rennes| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 23.8 | 24.4 | 23.2 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 11.4 | 9.2 | 15.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 18.2 | 19.2 | 16.7 |
| vs Similar (18) | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 23.6 | 24.2 | 22.9 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 10.2 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 25.9 | 27.0 | 24.9 |
| % over line | 60% | 72% | 48% | 60% | 64% | 56% | 64% | 68% | 60% |
| % under line | 40% | 28% | 52% | 40% | 36% | 44% | 36% | 32% | 40% |
Marseille| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.71 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.89 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Rennes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.93 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.15 | 0.46 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 79.4% | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | - | +18.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 73.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 11/01/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/03/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/12/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/03/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/09/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/05/22 | A | 2-0 |
Marseille| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 3-2 |
Rennes| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-4 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Paris FC | 70 | 123 | 51% | 1.8 | 124 | 82 | +42 | 2.9 | 76% | 60% | 31% | 9.6 | 49% | 3.2 | 33% | 19.8 | 37% | 159 | 45 | 50 | 63 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 76 | 71% | 2.2 | 74 | 29 | +45 | 3.0 | 76% | 62% | 32% | 9.5 | 41% | 2.9 | 26% | 18.6 | 26% | 1377 | 540 | 430 | 407 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 3 |  Lens | 36 | 70 | 61% | 1.9 | 66 | 39 | +27 | 2.9 | 83% | 61% | 28% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.4 | 66% | 24.1 | 56% | 260 | 52 | 76 | 132 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 4 |  Lyon | 36 | 63 | 53% | 1.8 | 57 | 44 | +13 | 2.8 | 67% | 58% | 33% | 11.0 | 53% | 4.9 | 72% | 25.9 | 75% | 294 | 138 | 77 | 79 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 5 | Marseille | 36 | 62 | 53% | 1.7 | 64 | 50 | +14 | 3.2 | 72% | 61% | 42% | 8.7 | 36% | 4.4 | 71% | 23.8 | 58% | 406 | 200 | 107 | 99 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 57% |
| 6 |  Lille | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 2.6 | 67% | 39% | 19% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.4 | 64% | 24.1 | 67% | 273 | 130 | 76 | 68 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 7 | Rennes | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 62 | 56 | +6 | 3.3 | 83% | 72% | 53% | 10.8 | 64% | 4.2 | 65% | 24.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 54% |
| 8 |  Monaco | 36 | 60 | 50% | 1.7 | 64 | 55 | +9 | 3.3 | 72% | 64% | 53% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.2 | 64% | 23.6 | 64% | 447 | 202 | 109 | 137 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 62 | 52 | +10 | 3.2 | 78% | 67% | 36% | 8.8 | 44% | 3.7 | 53% | 23.9 | 72% | 383 | 142 | 109 | 132 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 10 |  Lorient | 36 | 47 | 31% | 1.3 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 2.9 | 89% | 44% | 36% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.0 | 51% | 22.5 | 47% | 128 | 46 | 33 | 48 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 35 | 44 | 34% | 1.3 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 3.0 | 69% | 57% | 37% | 9.6 | 54% | 4.3 | 66% | 25.1 | 77% | 182 | 32 | 41 | 109 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 12 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 2.8 | 81% | 50% | 28% | 9.8 | 47% | 3.6 | 51% | 24.0 | 61% | 91 | 29 | 22 | 39 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 13 |  Angers | 36 | 36 | 25% | 1.0 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 2.2 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 8.9 | 42% | 3.1 | 42% | 21.8 | 50% | 135 | 86 | 14 | 35 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 14 |  Nice | 38 | 36 | 21% | 0.9 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 42% | 10.7 | 66% | 3.9 | 55% | 23.3 | 50% | 198 | 85 | 40 | 73 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 36 | 35 | 19% | 1.0 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 2.2 | 61% | 33% | 17% | 9.0 | 44% | 4.2 | 61% | 27.4 | 92% | 75 | 16 | 25 | 34 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 36 | 34 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 2.2 | 61% | 42% | 25% | 9.5 | 42% | 4.8 | 69% | 27.1 | 86% | 92 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 17 |  Nantes | 35 | 23 | 14% | 0.7 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 2.4 | 66% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 49% | 4.5 | 69% | 26.2 | 80% | 118 | 50 | 23 | 45 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 18 |  Metz | 36 | 17 | 8% | 0.5 | 34 | 82 | -48 | 3.2 | 75% | 64% | 42% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.4 | 50% | 22.5 | 58% | 80 | 37 | 21 | 22 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 49% |
| 19 |  Rodez | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 22 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 38% |
| 20 |  Saint Etienne | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 1.7 | 0% | 19.3 | 33% | 82 | 46 | 11 | 26 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 21 |  RED Star FC 93 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 63% |