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Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 10:00
Final 0-1
Mārupe
Mārupe
Vs
34%
28%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Leevon / PPK's recent form has been impressive, with a three-game winning streak. However, they are facing Mārupe, who have struggled lately, coming off a defeat in their last outing. The expected total goals in this match is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.

Mārupe have been decent at home, scoring an average of 2 goals per game and conceding just 0.75. Meanwhile, Leevon / PPK have been underwhelming on the road, scoring only 0.5 goals per game but conceding 1.67.

The model's selection is the away win, with a 38% chance of success. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a 77.1% probability, and Under 3.5, with a 70.4% probability and a 13% edge. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 38%.

Results analysis

The away team, Leevon / PPK, secured a 0-1 win, extending their winning run to five matches. Their most recent victory over Marupe, with a score of 1-0, marked the second consecutive win over the home team. The model's call for an away win was correct, with a predicted probability of 38%. The model's selection, an away win, proved accurate.

The model's selection to suggest an Under 3.5 total goals hit, with a predicted probability of 70.4%. However, the suggestion to go Over 1.5 total goals missed, with a predicted probability of 77.1%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mārupe win✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.61
Edge
+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.74
10Bet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.73
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Leevon / PPK win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied 50.9% · @ 1.77
Edge
-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.83
Dafabet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.80
William Hil
1.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L12L00D51W01L01L04L21W24LA·RIG20/09H·SKA28/09A·RĒZ05/10A·LEE19/10H·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.471.211.291.121.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.311.811.141.571.442.00
vs Weaker (14)1.001.071.291.000.711.14
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L03L11D00D21W11D32W21W21WH·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07H·RĒZ01/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.531.931.671.071.40
vs Stronger (22)1.731.412.361.361.091.45
vs Similar (6)0.832.170.673.331.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.000.001.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.1%
@ 1.14-4.3%
Under 1.5
22.9%
@ 5.00+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.47-10.6%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 2.43+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.41
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.6%
@ 2.14-13.0%
Under 3.5
70.4%
@ 1.58+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.9%
@ 1.47-5.6%
No
43.1%
@ 2.45+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
William Hil
1.44
No
Superbet
2.47
William Hil
2.45
1xBet
2.44

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 7.35+7.7%
1-2
8.5%@ 7.78+3.2%
2-1
8.1%@ 11.47+4.5%
0-1 ✓
7.9%@ 9.68+3.6%
0-0
7.6%@ 15.67+5.0%
1-0
7.4%@ 14.50+4.5%
0-2
6.4%@ 9.55+2.1%
2-0
5.7%@ 20.50+3.7%
Mārupe goals ↓
Leevon / PPK goals →
01234
07.6%7.9%6.4%3.0%1.1%
17.4%13%8.5%4.0%1.4%
25.7%8.1%5.7%2.7%0.9%
32.6%3.6%2.5%1.2%0.4%
40.9%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mārupe goals (down), columns = Leevon / PPK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Mārupe is 2.14 points worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 3.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Mārupe is 1.20 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Mārupe is 1.43 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D00D20W00D01L01L00D12LA·RIG20/09H·SKA28/09A·RĒZ05/10A·LEE19/10H·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.500.360.430.250.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.310.690.290.570.330.78
vs Weaker (14)0.290.290.430.290.140.29
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L11D00D20W01L10W11D10WH·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07H·RĒZ01/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.930.730.400.80
vs Stronger (22)0.820.771.180.640.450.91
vs Similar (6)0.000.830.001.330.000.33
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L00D31W01L00D03L21W12LA·RIG20/09H·SKA28/09A·RĒZ05/10A·LEE19/10H·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.970.860.860.881.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.001.120.861.001.111.22
vs Weaker (14)0.710.790.860.710.570.86
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L02L00D00D01L10W22D10W11DH·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07H·RĒZ01/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.771.000.930.670.60
vs Stronger (22)0.910.641.180.730.640.55
vs Similar (6)0.831.330.672.001.000.67
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.1%1.14
1xBet
1.14
-----4.3%✗ Miss
Under 3.570.4%1.58
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
+13.0%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
MĀR wins
1
Draws
1
L/P wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK · H/A from MĀR
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/25ALeevon / PPK Vs MĀR0-0
14/06/25HMĀR Vs Leevon / PPK1-0
07/09/24HMĀR Vs Leevon / PPK1-0
20/04/24ALeevon / PPK Vs MĀR4-2

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26ASkanste Vs MĀR4-2
25/07/26ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR1-2
18/07/26HMĀR Vs Metta / LU0-4
08/11/25HMĀR Vs Ogre United0-1
01/11/25AJFK Ventspils Vs MĀR1-0
25/10/25HMĀR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine5-1
19/10/25ALeevon / PPK Vs MĀR0-0
05/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR2-1
28/09/25HMĀR Vs Skanste0-1
20/09/25ARiga FC II Vs MĀR1-0

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HL/P Vs Rēzekne FA2-1
25/07/26HL/P Vs Skanste2-1
08/11/25HL/P Vs JFK Ventspils3-2
01/11/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs L/P1-1
26/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs L/P1-2
19/10/25HL/P Vs Mārupe0-0
04/10/25ASkanste Vs L/P1-1
27/09/25HL/P Vs Riga FC II0-3
20/09/25AJDFS Alberts Vs L/P1-0
14/09/25HL/P Vs Rīgas FS II2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.28
HomeWLWLL1.64
AwayLDLWL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%28%
AVG goals2.642.203.08
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %26%12%40%
Scored1.081.161.00
Conceded1.561.042.08
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.22
HomeLDWWW1.58
AwayLLDWD0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%46%21%
AVG goals2.963.312.58
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %60%65%54%
Over 3.5 %32%42%21%
Scored1.421.691.12
Conceded1.541.621.46
BTTS58%65%50%
Clean Sheet16%12%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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