The model favours a home win for Mārūpe, with a 47% chance, followed by a 28% draw and a 24% away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% probability. Mārūpe, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.29 conceded, while Riga FC II, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.5%), Home +2 handicap (90.6%), and Under 4.5 (88.6%). Mārūpe’s recent form shows a 5-match record of LLWLL, after two straight defeats, and they lost 0-2 to JDFS Alberts. Riga FC II’s last five are DLLDL, coming off a draw, and they drew 1-1 with JFK Ventspils.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mārupe win
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II win
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mārupe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.60
1.07
1.43
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.81
1.14
1.57
1.44
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.29
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.87
1.60
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.47
2.00
1.43
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.42
2.00
1.83
2.17
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.1%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.8%
Mārupe goals ↓
Riga FC II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.9%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
13%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.3%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.6%
4.7%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mārupe goals (down), columns = Riga FC II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Mārupe is 0.02 points better than Riga FC II in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Mārupe and Riga FC II are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Mārupe is 0.43 goals worse than Riga FC II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mārupe or Draw
75.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
24%
covers Mārupe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mārupe or Riga FC II
71.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
24%
covers Mārupe + Riga FC II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga FC II
52.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
24%
covers Draw + Riga FC II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mārupe over/under 0.5
Over
78.0%
Under
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mārupe, so a minus line means Mārupe give that many goals of a start and Riga FC II receive them. At -1, Mārupe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mārupe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mārupe)
Mārupe -2
9.9%
Draw -2
14.8%
Riga FC II +2
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mārupe)
Mārupe -1
24.7%
Draw -1
22.8%
Riga FC II +1
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mārupe)
Mārupe +1
75.6%
Draw +1
15.0%
Riga FC II -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mārupe)
Mārupe +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.7%
Riga FC II -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mārupe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.63
0.29
0.57
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
0.23
0.46
0.29
0.57
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.93
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.17
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mārupe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.79
0.86
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.12
0.86
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.69
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA