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Mārupe vs Riga Mariners Prediction & Stats

Date: 24/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Mārupe
Mārupe
Vs
39%
25%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Mārupe’s recent form has been shaky, with two straight defeats leaving them 0-2 at home, yet their home scoring average of 1.0 against weaker opposition suggests they can find the net. Riga Mariners, on a four-game winning streak, average 2.5 goals away against stronger sides and concede 1.5, hinting at a potent attack that could trouble Mārupe’s defence. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of three, a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 10.8% probability, underscoring the balanced nature of the encounter. Home win, draw and away win probabilities stand at 39%, 25% and 36% respectively, making a home win the favourite result. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.6%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), Over 1.5 (85.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (81.8%) and Home +2 handicap (81.3%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mārupe win
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W01L01L04L21W24L01L21W14L02LH·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08H·LEE08/08H·SUP15/08A·VAL22/08H·JDF29/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.601.071.431.121.75
vs Stronger (1)1.004.00--1.004.00
vs Similar (16)1.311.811.141.571.442.00
vs Weaker (13)0.851.151.001.290.671.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-633D60W31W43W02L11D30W42W31W31WH·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RĪG01/11A·JDF08/11H·JFK25/07A·SUP31/07H·TUK09/08A·RIG24/08H·RĪG29/08
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.901.272.881.252.931.29
vs Stronger (14)2.571.432.621.382.501.50
vs Similar (12)3.001.332.831.173.171.50
vs Weaker (4)3.750.504.001.003.500.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.1%
1-0
5.0%
0-1
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
Mārupe goals ↓
Riga Mariners goals →
01234
04.5%4.8%4.8%2.6%1.1%
15.0%11%8.1%4.5%1.8%
25.1%8.4%6.9%3.8%1.6%
32.9%4.8%3.9%2.2%0.9%
41.2%2.0%1.7%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mārupe goals (down), columns = Riga Mariners goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Mārupe is 1.74 points worse than Riga Mariners in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 2.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Mārupe is 1.80 goals worse than Riga Mariners in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Mārupe is 1.43 goals worse than Riga Mariners in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mārupe or Draw
63.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
36%
covers Mārupe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mārupe or Riga Mariners
75.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
36%
covers Mārupe + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga Mariners
61.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
36%
covers Draw + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mārupe over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5
Over
80.8%
Under
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 3.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Mārupe, so a minus line means Mārupe give that many goals of a start and Riga Mariners receive them. At -1, Mārupe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mārupe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mārupe)
Mārupe -2
8.6%
Draw -2
11.9%
Riga Mariners +2
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mārupe)
Mārupe -1
20.4%
Draw -1
18.3%
Riga Mariners +1
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mārupe)
Mārupe +1
63.5%
Draw +1
17.7%
Riga Mariners -1
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mārupe)
Mārupe +2
81.3%
Draw +2
11.1%
Riga Mariners -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L01L00D12L00D01L02L02LH·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08H·LEE08/08H·SUP15/08A·VAL22/08H·JDF29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.630.290.570.250.69
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (16)0.310.690.290.570.330.78
vs Weaker (13)0.230.460.290.570.170.33
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D20W11D21W00D01L10W21W30W10WH·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RĪG01/11A·JDF08/11H·JFK25/07A·SUP31/07H·TUK09/08A·RIG24/08H·RĪG29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.401.190.441.140.36
vs Stronger (14)1.070.501.000.501.170.50
vs Similar (12)1.170.331.170.331.170.33
vs Weaker (4)1.500.252.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L00D03L21W12L01L20W12L00DH·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08H·LEE08/08H·SUP15/08A·VAL22/08H·JDF29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.970.790.860.881.06
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.001.120.861.001.111.22
vs Weaker (13)0.620.690.710.710.500.67
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W20W22D02L10W20W21W01L21WH·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RĪG01/11A·JDF08/11H·JFK25/07A·SUP31/07H·TUK09/08A·RIG24/08H·RĪG29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.871.690.811.790.93
vs Stronger (14)1.500.931.620.881.331.00
vs Similar (12)1.831.001.670.832.001.17
vs Weaker (4)2.250.252.000.502.500.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.9%-------
Under 6.594.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals91.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals90.6%-------
Under 5.587.6%-------
Over 1.585.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals81.8%-------
Home +2 handicap81.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.8%-------
Away +2 handicap79.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals77.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals75.6%-------
Under 4.575.3%-------
Home or Away75.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
MĀR wins
0
Draws
2
RM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mārupe vs Riga Mariners · H/A from MĀR
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25ARiga Mariners Vs MĀR3-1
12/04/25HMĀR Vs Riga Mariners1-2

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMĀR Vs JDFS Alberts0-2
22/08/26AValmiera / BSS Vs MĀR4-1
15/08/26HMĀR Vs Super Nova 22-1
08/08/26HMĀR Vs Leevon / PPK0-1
01/08/26ASkanste Vs MĀR4-2
25/07/26ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR1-2
18/07/26HMĀR Vs Metta / LU0-4
08/11/25HMĀR Vs Ogre United0-1
01/11/25AJFK Ventspils Vs MĀR1-0
25/10/25HMĀR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine5-1

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HRM Vs Rīgas FS II3-1
24/08/26ARiga FC II Vs RM1-3
09/08/26HRM Vs Tukums II4-2
31/07/26ASuper Nova 2 Vs RM0-3
25/07/26HRM Vs JFK Ventspils1-1
08/11/25AJDFS Alberts Vs RM2-0
01/11/25HRM Vs Rīgas FS II4-3
25/10/25ASmiltene Vs RM1-3
18/10/25HRM Vs Rēzekne FA6-0
04/10/25HRM Vs Augšdaugava3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.16
HomeLLLWL1.46
AwayDLWLL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%25%
AVG goals2.682.193.21
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %54%42%67%
Over 3.5 %26%12%42%
Scored1.061.081.04
Conceded1.621.122.17
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet20%31%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.29
HomeWWDWW2.12
AwayWWLWW2.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%62%80%
AVG goals4.104.124.07
Over 1.5 %94%88%100%
Over 2.5 %81%75%87%
Over 3.5 %65%69%60%
Scored2.842.882.80
Conceded1.261.251.27
BTTS71%69%73%
Clean Sheet23%31%13%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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