Mārupe is the clear favourite, with the model rating a home win at 67 %. The team’s recent form shows a win-loss-loss-loss-win pattern, yet they are still coming off a 1-4 defeat, which the model has factored into the probability. Their home scoring average of 1.12 goals and conceding 1.25 against weaker opponents signals a solid attack, while Tukums II, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 1.07 goals scored and 2.87 conceded. This disparity underpins the 67 % home win chance and the 19 % draw and 14 % away win percentages.
The expected total is 3.6 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Mārupe, carrying a 9.4 % probability.
The model’s selections include: Away under 3.5 goals97.6 %, Under 7.597.0 %, Home +2 handicap94.9 %, Under 6.592.9 %, Home over 0.5 goals91.8 %, Away under 2.5 goals90.4 %, Over 1.588.0 %, and Home or Draw86.2 %. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in the match’s outcome and related metrics.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mārupe win
64.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mārupe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.60
1.07
1.43
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.81
1.14
1.57
1.44
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.29
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Stronger (30)
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
3-1
7.7%
3-0
6.6%
1-0
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
4-1
4.7%
Mārupe goals ↓
Tukums II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.7%
8.4%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.0%
9.4%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
3
6.6%
7.7%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
4
4.0%
4.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mārupe goals (down), columns = Tukums II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Mārupe is 0.06 points better than Tukums II in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Mārupe is 0.40 goals worse than Tukums II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Mārupe is 1.57 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 4.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mārupe or Draw
84.2%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
16%
covers Mārupe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mārupe or Tukums II
80.6%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
16%
covers Mārupe + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tukums II
35.2%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
16%
covers Draw + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mārupe over/under 0.5
Over
91.5%
Under
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 3.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mārupe, so a minus line means Mārupe give that many goals of a start and Tukums II receive them. At -1, Mārupe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mārupe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mārupe)
Mārupe -2
24.9%
Draw -2
19.1%
Tukums II +2
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mārupe)
Mārupe -1
43.9%
Draw -1
20.9%
Tukums II +1
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mārupe)
Mārupe +1
84.2%
Draw +1
9.6%
Tukums II -1
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mārupe)
Mārupe +2
93.8%
Draw +2
4.3%
Tukums II -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mārupe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.63
0.29
0.57
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
0.23
0.46
0.29
0.57
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.5%
Under 0.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.6%
Under 1.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
Under 2.5
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.2%
Under
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mārupe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.79
0.86
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.12
0.86
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.69
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.0%
Under 0.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.0%
Under 1.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.5%
Under 2.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA