The clash between Merani Martvili and Aragvi Dusheti is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost even: a 31 % chance for Merani to win, 31 % for a draw, and 38 % for Aragvi to come away victorious. The average goal tally sits at 2.3, and the most probable total is two goals, with a 28 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5 % probability, reflecting the evenly matched teams.
Merani, playing at home, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against opponents of similar strength. Aragvi, on the road, nets 1.21 and concedes 1.21 against similar opposition. The recent form adds intrigue: Merani has slipped after a loss to Telavi, while Aragvi is riding a two-game winning streak after beating Gori.
The model’s selections lean heavily on low scoring: Under 7.5 goals at 99.7 %, Under 6.5 at 99.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.6 %, Under 5.5 at 97.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.4 %, Under 4.5 at 91.6 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.4 %, and Away under 2.5 goals at 87.5 %. These picks highlight the expectation of a modest, tightly contested match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Merani Martvili win
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
1.20
1.33
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
1.36
1.25
1.33
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.31
1.23
1.29
1.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
11.4%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.5%
Merani Martvili goals ↓
Aragvi Dusheti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
1
9.2%
14%
8.2%
3.4%
1.1%
2
5.5%
6.8%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Merani Martvili goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Merani Martvili is 0.88 points worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Merani Martvili is 0.75 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals scored per game (0.62 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Merani Martvili is 0.12 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Merani Martvili or Draw
60.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Merani Martvili + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili or Aragvi Dusheti
69.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Merani Martvili + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aragvi Dusheti
70.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Draw + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Merani Martvili, so a minus line means Merani Martvili give that many goals of a start and Aragvi Dusheti receive them. At -1, Merani Martvili must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Merani Martvili win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili -2
3.3%
Draw -2
8.2%
Aragvi Dusheti +2
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili -1
11.6%
Draw -1
17.7%
Aragvi Dusheti +1
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili +1
60.1%
Draw +1
21.6%
Aragvi Dusheti -1
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili +2
81.8%
Draw +2
12.0%
Aragvi Dusheti -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.56
0.58
0.67
0.15
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.48
0.62
0.54
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.6%
Under 0.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.9%
Under 1.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.23
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.4%
Under 1.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti