This match between Merani Martvili and Odishi 1919 in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 is finely balanced, with Merani Martvili's recent form a major storyline. After two straight defeats, they've struggled to score at home, averaging 0 goals per game, while conceding an average of 3 goals. Meanwhile, Odishi 1919 have found success away from home, scoring 1.33 goals and conceding just 1.33 goals per game against weaker opponents.
The model predicts an away win, with a 37% chance of Odishi 1919 taking the three points. The model's selection is an away win, with a 37% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals (77.3%) and Under 3.5 goals (70.3%) as its selections. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Merani Martvili have a 35% chance of winning, while Odishi 1919 have a 37% chance of winning, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Odishi 1919 secured a 0-0 draw against Merani Martvili, extending their away run and silencing the pre-match favourite. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect, with the actual result being a draw. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, an away win, had a pre-match probability of 37%. The model also suggested an Over 1.5, which missed, with a probability of 77.3%, and an Under 3.5, which hit, with a probability of 70.3%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 13.3%, but the actual score remained goalless.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Merani Martvili win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied 43.6% · @ 2.07
Edge
-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
2.10
Betano
2.10
Dafabet
2.09
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Draw✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.23
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Odishi 1919 win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.18
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.26
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.53
1.27
1.40
0.53
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.84
1.48
1.33
1.42
0.38
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odishi 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.14
1.75
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.80
1.20
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.3%
@ 1.30+7.7%
Under 1.5
22.7%
@ 2.97-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.97
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
@ 1.95+4.7%
Under 2.5
48.1%
@ 1.75-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.90
Under
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
@ 3.34+2.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
@ 1.24-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.1%
@ 1.79+5.7%
No
42.9%
@ 1.88-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
No
BetVictor
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 5.90+6.2%
1-2
8.4%@ 10.30+4.4%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.00+3.0%
0-1
7.7%@ 8.50+2.8%
0-0 ✓
7.6%@ 9.00+3.0%
1-0
7.5%@ 6.60+1.2%
0-2
6.2%@ 14.40+3.3%
2-0
5.9%@ 8.80+1.2%
Merani Martvili goals ↓
Odishi 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.7%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.5%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.2%
5.7%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.7%
3.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Merani Martvili goals (down), columns = Odishi 1919 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Merani Martvili is 0.75 points worse than Odishi 1919 in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Merani Martvili is 0.25 goals worse than Odishi 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (0.62 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Merani Martvili is 0.25 goals worse than Odishi 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.15
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odishi 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
14% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.67
0.80
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.88
0.67
0.75
0.23
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odishi 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.3%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
-
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.3%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
-
-
-2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →