The match between Merani Martvili and Shturmi is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. Home victory sits at 37%, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 32%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modest scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% probability. Merani Martvili, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Shturmi, on the road, averages 0.87 scored and 1.13 conceded. Recent form shows Merani’s last five results as LLDLL, with a 1-2 loss to Gareji, and Shturmi’s last five as LLWWD, after a 1-3 defeat to Gori. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 4.5 (91.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.2%), and Home under 2.5 goals (88.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Merani Martvili win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shturmi win
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
1.20
1.33
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
1.36
1.25
1.33
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
1.07
0.86
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.00
1.00
1.15
0.85
0.87
1.13
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.6%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
6.1%
Merani Martvili goals ↓
Shturmi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.8%
6.1%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.2%
7.9%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.9%
3.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Merani Martvili goals (down), columns = Shturmi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Merani Martvili is 0.38 points worse than Shturmi in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Merani Martvili and Shturmi are level in goals scored per game (both 0.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Merani Martvili is 0.25 goals worse than Shturmi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Merani Martvili or Draw
68.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers Merani Martvili + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili or Shturmi
68.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers Merani Martvili + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shturmi
63.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers Draw + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Merani Martvili, so a minus line means Merani Martvili give that many goals of a start and Shturmi receive them. At -1, Merani Martvili must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Merani Martvili win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili -2
5.3%
Draw -2
10.9%
Shturmi +2
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili -1
16.2%
Draw -1
20.6%
Shturmi +1
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili +1
68.0%
Draw +1
18.8%
Shturmi -1
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili +2
86.8%
Draw +2
9.2%
Shturmi -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.56
0.58
0.67
0.15
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.43
0.77
0.23
0.53
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.23
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.62
0.33
0.53
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Kolkheti Poti